More than a quarter of Nasdaq-100 stocks are in bear markets -- Wall Street sees a buying opportunity
More than a quarter of Nasdaq-100 stocks are in bear markets -- Wall Street sees a buying opportunity
By Philip van Doorn
菲利普·範·多恩(Philip Van Doorn)
Stocks down more than 50% from their 52-week highs include Pinduoduo, Baidu, Zoom Video Communications and Peloton
從52周高點下跌超過50%的股票包括拼多多、百度集團-SW、Zoom Video Communications和Peloton
The Nasdaq-100 Index has performed very well against the broader S&P 500 index in recent years and it is down only 6% from its record intraday high set on Sept. 7. Even so, more than a quarter of stocks in the Nasdaq-100 are in bear markets -- down at least 20% from their 52-week highs.
納斯達克-100指數(Nasdaq-100 Index)近年來相對於更廣泛的標準普爾500指數(S&P500 index)表現非常好，僅比9月9日創下的盤中紀錄高點下跌了6%。7.即便如此，納斯達克100指數(Nasdaq-100)中仍有超過四分之一的股票處於熊市，較52周高點至少下跌了20%。
Before looking at those stocks, let's take a quick look at the Nasdaq-100 Index . It is made up of the largest 100 non-financial stocks in the full Nasdaq Composite Index and is weighted by market capitalization. The Nasdaq-100 has greatly outperformed the S&P 500 index (which is also weighted by market cap) in recent years.
在看這些股票之前，我們先來快速瀏覽一下納斯達克-100指數(Nasdaq-100 Index)。它由納斯達克綜合指數(Nasdaq Composite Index)中規模最大的100只非金融類股組成，按市值加權。納斯達克-100指數(Nasdaq-100)近年來的表現遠遠好於標準普爾500指數(S&P500 Index)(該指數也是按市值加權的)。
Using exchange-traded funds that track both -- the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) for the Nasdaq-100 and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), here is a 10-year chart showing total returns, with dividends reinvested:
使用追蹤納斯達克100指數的景順QQQ信託(Invesco QQQ Trust)和標普500ETF(SPDR S&P500ETF Trust)這兩隻ETF的交易所交易基金(ETF)，以下是一張顯示總回報(包括股息再投資)的10年圖表：
One reason for QQQ's outperformance over the past 10 years has been its heavy concentration in giant tech companies. As of the close on Sept. 27, the top five companies held by QQQ (Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOGL)) made up 41.3% of the portfolio. Meanwhile the top five positions of SPY (the same, except replace Tesla with Facebook Inc. (FB)) made up 22.6% of its portfolio.
QQQ在過去10年中表現優異的原因之一是它高度集中在大型科技公司。截至9月1日收盤，27，QQQ持有的前五大公司(蘋果、微軟(Microsoft Corp.)、亞馬遜、特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)和谷歌(Alphabet Inc.)的兩個普通股類別)佔投資組合的41.3%。與此同時，標普500ETF的前五個職位(相同，除了用Facebook取代特斯拉)佔其投資組合的22.6%。
Another important difference between the indexes is the Nasdaq-100 includes American depositary receipts of some non-U.S. companies, while the S&P 500 excludes ADRs. Some of the ADRs held by QQQ are included in the list below.
這兩個指數之間的另一個重要區別是，Nasdaq-100指數包括一些非美國公司的美國存託憑證(ADR)，而標準普爾500指數(S&P500)不包括美國存託憑證(ADR)。下面列出了QQQ持有的部分ADR。
Here's a comparison of average annual returns for the two ETFs over many periods:
以下是這兩隻ETF在多個時期的平均年回報率比較：
ETF 3 Years 5 Years 10 years 15 Years 20 Years Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 25.6% 25.8% 22.0% 16.6% 14.2% SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY 16.3% 17.0% 16.4% 10.3% 9.5% Source: FactSet
ETF 3年5年10年15年20年景順QQQ信託QQQ 25.6%25.8%22.0%16.6%14.2%SPDR標準普爾500ETF信託標普500ETF 16.3%17.0%16.4%10.3%9.5%來源：Factset
One thing to keep an eye on is the relative cost of the indexes/ETFs. QQQ looks a bit expensive relative to where it usually trades against SPY. Here's a comparison of current forward price-to-earnings ratios with averages:
有一件事需要密切關注，那就是指數/ETF的相對成本。與標普500ETF通常的交易價格相比，QQQ看起來有點貴。以下是當前預期市盈率與平均市盈率的比較：
ETF Forward P/E 10-year average forward P/E 15-year average forward P/E Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 26.95 19.32 18.73 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 20.82 16.37 15.26 Source: FactSet
ETF遠期市盈率10年平均遠期市盈率15年平均遠期市盈率QQQ信託QQQ 26.95 19.32 18.73 SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託20.82 16.37 15.26來源：FactSet
So QQQ now trades for 129% of SPY's forward P/E valuation. It has traded for 118% of SPY's forward P/E on average over 10 years and 123% based on the 15-year averages.
因此，QQQ目前的市盈率是標普500ETF遠期市盈率的129%。10年來，它的平均市盈率是標普500ETF遠期市盈率的118%，根據15年的平均市盈率，它的市盈率為123%。
The Nasdaq-100 bear list
納斯達克100指數熊市名單
There are actually 102 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 because Alphabet and Fox Corp. have two common-share classes apiece. Here are the 22 stocks among them that were down at least 20% from their 52-week highs as of the close on Sept. 28:
納斯達克100指數(Nasdaq-100)實際上有102只股票，因為Alphabet和福克斯公司(Fox Corp.)各有兩個普通股類別。以下是截至9月1日收盤時較52周高點下跌至少20%的22只股票。28：
Company Decline from 52-week high 52-week high Date of 52-week high Closing Price -- Sept. 28 Pinduoduo Inc. ADR Class A PDD -58.1% $212.60 02/16/2021 $89.00 Baidu Inc. ADR Class A BIDU -56.6% $354.82 02/22/2021 $154.02 Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM -55.5% $588.84 10/19/2020 $261.89 Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON -48.7% $171.09 01/14/2021 $87.80 Biogen Inc. BIIB -39.2% $468.55 06/07/2021 $284.71 Splunk Inc. SPLK -37.3% $222.19 10/21/2020 $139.42 NetEase Inc. ADR NTES -37.0% $134.33 02/11/2021 $84.69 Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX -35.4% $280.99 10/13/2020 $181.60 Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR TCOM -33.6% $45.19 03/17/2021 $30.01 Incyte Corp. INCY -32.3% $101.47 01/25/2021 $68.68 JD.com Inc. ADR Class A JD -30.4% $108.29 02/17/2021 $75.42 Dollar Tree Inc. DLTR -28.3% $120.37 04/06/2021 $86.28 Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI -27.0% $104.53 02/16/2021 $76.33 Illumina Inc. ILMN -26.2% $555.77 02/12/2021 $410.20 Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI -25.1% $8.14 01/27/2021 $6.10 Micron Technology Inc. MU -24.6% $96.96 04/12/2021 $73.10 Seagen Inc. SGEN -24.6% $213.94 10/13/2020 $161.40 Amgen Inc. AMGN -23.3% $276.69 01/28/2021 $212.27 Moderna Inc. MRNA -22.8% $497.49 08/10/2021 $384.21 Qualcomm Inc. QCOM -22.7% $167.94 01/20/2021 $129.90 Paccar Inc. PCAR -21.7% $103.19 01/21/2021 $80.82 Intel Corp. INTC -21.2% $68.49 04/12/2021 $54.00 Source: FactSet
公司股價從52周高位52周高位回落至52周高位收盤價-9月1日。28拼多多公司A類美國存託憑證-58.1%$212.60 02/16/2021年$89.00百度-56.6%$354.82 02/22/2021年$154.02 Zoom視頻通訊A類ZM-55.5%$588.84 10/19$261.89佩洛頓互動公司A類PTON-48.7%$171.09 01/14/2021年$87.80生物遺傳公司BIIB-39.2%$468.55 06/072021年$284.71 Splunk Inc.$37.3%$222.19 2020年10月21日$139.42網易-37.0%$134.33 02/11/2021年$84.69 Vertex製藥公司VRTX-35.4%$280.99 2020年10月13日$181.60攜程集團-S集團有限公司$45.1903/17/2021年$30.01 Incell Corp.INCY-32.3%$101.47/01/25/2021$68.68京東A類美國存託憑證JD-30.4%$108.29 02/17/2021年$75.42Dollar Tree Inc.DLTR-28.3%$120.37 04/06/2021年$86.28Activision Blizzard Inc.ATVI-27.0%$104.53 02/16/2021年$76.33ILMN-26.2%$555.77 02/12/2021年$410.20天狼星XM控股公司SIRI-25.1%$8.14/27/2021年$技術公司MU-24.6%$96.96.04/12/2021$73.10Seagen Inc.Sgen-24.6%$213.94 2020年10月13日$161.40安進-23.3%$276.69 01月28日/2021年$212.27 Moderna-22.8%$497.49 08/10/2021年$384.21高通-22.7%$167.94 01/20/2021年Paccar Inc.$103.19 2021年01月21日$80.82Intel Corp.INTC-21.2%$68.49.04.12/2021年$54.00來源：FactSet
You can click the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.
您可以單擊滾動條瞭解有關每家公司的更多信息。單擊此處查看Tomi Kilgore在報價頁面上免費提供的豐富信息指南。
Pinduoduo Inc. and Baidu Inc. top the list, with sharp declines from their 52-week highs.
拼多多和百度集團-SW位居榜首，股價從52周高點大幅回落。
Here's a summary of opinion for the group among analysts polled by FactSet:
以下是FactSet調查的分析師對該集團的看法摘要：
Company Share "buy" ratings Share neutral ratings Share "sell" ratings Closing Price -- Sept. 28 Cons. price target Implied 12-month upside potential Pinduoduo Inc. ADR Class A PDD 79% 21% 0% $89.00 $136.54 35% Baidu Inc. ADR Class A BIDU 86% 9% 5% $154.02 $256.77 40% Zoom Video Communications Inc. Class A ZM 52% 44% 4% $261.89 $363.11 28% Peloton Interactive Inc. Class A PTON 74% 19% 7% $87.80 $129.67 32% Biogen Inc. BIIB 52% 48% 0% $284.71 $418.24 32% Splunk Inc. SPLK 62% 38% 0% $139.42 $179.90 22% NetEase Inc. ADR NTES 94% 6% 0% $84.69 $124.99 32% Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. VRTX 74% 19% 7% $181.60 $260.67 30% Trip.com Group Ltd. ADR TCOM 71% 29% 0% $30.01 $37.25 19% Incyte Corp. INCY 60% 40% 0% $68.68 $101.27 32% JD.com Inc. ADR Class A JD 94% 6% 0% $75.42 $93.02 19% Dollar Tree Inc. DLTR 36% 60% 4% $86.28 $105.52 18% Activision Blizzard Inc. ATVI 94% 6% 0% $76.33 $115.34 34% Illumina Inc. ILMN 15% 65% 20% $410.20 $455.19 10% Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI 65% 29% 6% $6.10 $7.60 20% Micron Technology Inc. MU 87% 13% 0% $73.10 $104.60 30% Seagen Inc. SGEN 57% 38% 5% $161.40 $187.35 14% Amgen Inc. AMGN 31% 61% 8% $212.27 $246.10 14% Moderna Inc. MRNA 31% 44% 25% $384.21 $351.40 -9% Qualcomm Inc. QCOM 64% 36% 0% $129.90 $184.15 29% Paccar Inc. PCAR 53% 42% 5% $80.82 $99.56 19% Intel Corp. INTC 37% 39% 24% $54.00 $61.98 13% Source: FactSet
公司股票“買入”評級股票中性評級股票“賣出”評級收盤價-9月1日。28個囚徒。目標價暗示12個月的上行潛力美國存託憑證A類PDD 79%21%0%$89.00$136.54 35%百度A類BIDU 86%9%5%$154.02$256.77 40%Zoom視頻通訊A類ZM 52%44%4%$261.89$363.11 28%Peloton Interactive Inc.A類PTON 74%19%7%$87.80$129.67 32%Biogen Inc.BIIB 52%48%0%$284.71$418.24 32%Splunk Inc.SPLK 62%38%0%$139.42$179.90 22%網易ADR NTES 94%6%0%$84.69$124.99 32%Vertex PharmPharmticals Inc.VRTX 74%19%7%$181.60$260.67 30%Adr TCOM 71%29%0%$30.01$37.2519%Incell Corp.INCY 60%40%0%$6868$101.27 32%京東A類美國存託憑證JD 94%6%0%$75.42%93.0219%Dollar Tree Inc.DLTR36%60%4%$86.28$105.52 18%Activision Blizzard Inc.ATVI94%6%0%$76.33$115.34 34%Illumina 15%65%20%$410.20$455.19 10%Sirius XM Holdings Inc.Sirius XM Holdings Inc.$7.6 20%美光科技87%13%0%$73.10$104.60 30%Seagen Inc.Sgen 57%38%5%$161.40$187.35 14%安進AMGN 31%61%8%$212.27$246.10 14%Moderna 31%44%25%$384.21$351.40-9%高通64%36%0%$129.90$184.15 29%PACCARInc.PCAR 53%42%5%$80.82$99.5619%Intel Corp.INTC 37%39%24%$54.00$61.98 13%來源：FactSet
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不要錯過：銀行股很便宜--以下是業內最好的20家銀行股
-Philip van Doorn
--菲利普·範·多恩