share_log

外盘头条:华尔街关注9月FOMC会议减码信号

Headline of outer disk: Wall Street pays attention to the subtracted signal of FOMC meeting in September.

新浪財經 ·  Aug 23, 2021 17:35

Global financial media last night and this morningThe main headlines of common concern are:

1. Jackson Hole Annual meeting is just a foreground. Wall Street pays more attention to the subtracted signal of the FOMC meeting in September.

2. Allianz Chief Economic adviser: us stocks are unlikely to see a sharp correction before the end of the year.

3. The growth rate of services and manufacturing in the United States slowed to an eight-month low in August.

4. The COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc and BioNTech has been fully approved by the FDA of the United States.

5. The shortage of chips is bound to intensify due to the impact of the epidemic in Malaysia.

6. The US dollar is flooded with liquidity. The bottom of the interest rate built by the Federal Reserve collapses with one blow.

Jackson Hole annual meeting is just a front. Wall Street pays more attention to the subtracted signal of the FOMC meeting in September.

In their weekly report, US interest rate strategists assessed the potential market impact of the Fed's announcement of the cut and the risks surrounding its September FOMC meeting.

Goldman Sachs GroupAccording to the latest report, it is unlikely that Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell will make a surprise speech at the Jackson Hole seminar, and that the key is the FOMC meeting in September. Goldman Sachs GroupThe meeting is expected to contain a "clear signal of a subtraction announcement in November", and the bitmap could show a rate hike of up to 100 basis points by 2024, "well beyond current market pricing".

Citi believes that investors are "using longer-term Treasuries as a safe haven while waiting for concerns about Delta virus / geopolitics to abate, driving down the long-term premium". This has led to a disconnect between short-term yields and market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in the second half of next year. So we see reason to bet on a steeper 2s10s yield curve.

With regard to Fed downsizing, Citi's baseline is expected to announce in September that it will officially begin to scale back its bond purchases in December.

Allianz Chief Economic adviser: us stocks are unlikely to see a sharp correction before the end of the year

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz's chief economic adviser, said on Monday that a sharp correction in the stock market was unlikely until a "major shock" broke recent trading patterns.

Mr. Erian said on Monday that the stock market could continue to shake off any weakness until the impact of the Fed's policy plan becomes more apparent.

Mr Erian said a "major shock" was needed to break the bargain-hunting tendency of investors. He said the shocks could be a policy mistake by the Fed or a "market accident".

Erian has previously criticized the Fed's approach, saying that the Fed has maintained loose policy for too long. He says the next few months will be key.

"it is not until the end of this year that we will find out whether the Fed has made a major policy mistake. I think so. I don't think inflation will be temporary and people underestimate the dynamics of inflation, "he said."

Us service and manufacturing growth slowed to an eight-month low in August

Us business activity continued to slow in August, expanding at its slowest pace in eight months against a backdrop of shortages of raw materials and labour and a rise in COVID-19 infection.

The composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services and manufacturing fell to 55.4 in August from 59.9 a month earlier, according to data released by IHS Markit on Monday. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in economic activity, which has fallen month by month since hitting a record high of 68.7 in May.

This month's correction highlights the impact of supply chain disruptions on companies that are already struggling to meet market demand. Service providers and manufacturers continue to face challenges in attracting employees and obtaining supplies.

Limited capacity is translating into persistent inflationary pressures. The input price index rose in August to the second-highest level since 2009. Reception price indicators have also risen, indicating that companies have achieved some success in passing on rising costs.

The COVID-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc and BioNTech has been fully approved by the FDA of the United States.

Pfizer IncThe COVID-19 vaccine, jointly developed by the company and BioNTech SE, has been fully approved by US regulators, a move that is expected to boost vaccination efforts in the United States in the face of a surge in infection caused by the Delta strain.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said in a statement that it had approved the COVID-19 vaccine for people aged 16 and over, under the trade name Comirnaty.

The agency says the vaccine can be used in people between the ages of 12 and 15 under emergency use authorization.

The shortage of chips is bound to intensify due to the impact of the epidemic in Malaysia.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia is surging, potentially exacerbating shortages of semiconductors and other components that have plagued carmakers for months.

Historically, the Southeast Asian country has not been as important to the technology supply chain as South Korea or Japan. But in recent years, Malaysia has emerged as an important center for chip testing and packaging, with Infineon, NXP and STMicroelectronics all setting up factories in the country.

At present, the epidemic in the country is heating up sharply, endangering plans to lift the blockade and resume full capacity production. The seven-day average of new cases per day has exceeded 20, 000, compared with just over 5000 at the end of June.

According to informal guidelines, if more than three workers are infected with the virus, the factory must be completely closed for two weeks for sanitary disinfection. The Delta strain is so contagious that it is difficult to stop.

There is a flood of US dollar liquidity. The bottom of the interest rate built by the Federal Reserve collapses with one blow.

The bottom of interest rates the Fed has built for the overnight funding market is vulnerable to surging liquidity.

From US Treasuries to repurchase agreements, interest rates on a variety of money market securities remain below the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate of 0.05 per cent, which should have been seen as the floor of short-term interest rates. At its June meeting, the Fed adjusted the overnight reverse repo rate by five basis points to help support the smooth operation of short-term funding markets. However, the use of overnight reverse repurchase tools reached another record of $1.136 trillion on Monday, surpassing the previous record of $1.116 trillion hit on Aug. 18.

Demand for reverse repos has surged as large amounts of dollars continue to overwhelm the financing market. The surge in liquidity is partly due to the Fed's continued asset purchases and the US Treasury's withdrawal of money from cash accounts, pushing more reserves into the system. The Treasury's move to cut US debt issuance to make room for the debt ceiling has further exacerbated the flood of liquidity.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment