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Opinion: Big Tech can't be held down

Opinion: Big Tech can't be held down

觀點:大型科技公司是壓不住的
Dow Jones Newswires ·  2021/08/22 20:09  · 觀點

Over three days in late July, America's tech giants put on an impressive show. $Apple Inc(AAPL.US)$, $Microsoft Corp(MSFT.US)$, $Alphabet Inc-CL A(GOOGL.US)$, $Amazon.Com Inc(AMZN.US)$, and $Facebook Inc(FB.US)$ had thrived in the pandemic, and their latest earnings reports hammered home the point. The five companies generated a combined $332 billion in revenue from April to June, up 36% from a year earlier. All of their profits were better than expected. The twist is that all of their stocks, save for Alphabet's, sold off on the news.

在7月下旬的三天時間裏,美國科技巨頭們上演了一場令人印象深刻的表演。$蘋果(蘋果美國)$, $微軟(微軟美國)$, $Alphabet-CL A(谷歌)$, $亞馬遜(AMZN.US)$,及$Facebook(FB.US)$在疫情中蓬勃發展,他們最新的收益報告強調了這一點。從4月到6月,這五家公司總共創造了3,320億美元的收入,同比增長36%。他們所有的利潤都好於預期。轉折是,除了Alphabet以外,他們所有的股票都在消息傳出後遭到拋售。

The negative reaction reflects the paradox surrounding America's Big Tech complex. Their products are being used more than ever, just as the companies have become increasingly disliked. Regulators and lawmakers -- cheered on by a bipartisan mix of constituents -- are scrutinizing each business and threatening significant actions to curtail their power. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney estimates that the regulatory scrutiny has already created a 10% drag on large tech stocks.

這種負面反應反映了圍繞美國大型科技企業的悖論。他們的產品比以往任何時候都被使用,就像這些公司變得越來越不受歡迎一樣。在兩黨選民的鼓舞下,監管機構和立法者正在仔細審查每一項業務,並威脅要採取重大行動限制它們的權力。Evercore ISI分析師馬克·馬哈尼估計,監管審查已經對大型科技股造成了10%的拖累。

After thriving during the pandemic, tech companies are facing the challenges posed by a rebounding economy, as businesses and consumers potentially return to old, more analog habits.

在大流行期間蓬勃發展之後,科技公司正面臨着經濟反彈帶來的挑戰,因為企業和消費者可能會迴歸到更類似的舊習慣。

Big Tech has hit a perilous moment. It won't last. The five megacaps still have the best business models on the planet, and their stocks look relatively cheap. Investors should own them all, even if the regulatory headwinds take a while to abate. (See sidebar, "The White House Wants to Reign in Big Tech. Here's How.")

大型科技公司遇到了一個危險的時刻。不會持續很久的。這五大巨頭仍然擁有地球上最好的商業模式,它們的股票看起來相對便宜。投資者應該擁有所有這些股票,即使監管逆風需要一段時間才能減弱。(參見側欄“白宮想要統治大型科技公司。具體方法如下。”)

Taken together, the five tech giants -- the largest companies in the U.S. stock market by a wide margin -- offer a way to invest in the global economy's most important trends: digital transformation and cloud computing, and the future of communication, entertainment, commerce, and work.

總而言之,這五家科技巨頭--美國股市中遙遙領先的最大公司--提供了一種投資全球經濟最重要趨勢的方式:數字轉型和雲計算,以及通信、娛樂、商業和工作的未來。

The cloud alone could power the growth of Microsoft (ticker: MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL) from here.

單是雲計算就可以為微軟、亞馬遜和Alphabet的增長提供動力。

"Cloud is the reason I own all three of them," says Walter Price, who runs the tech investment team at mutual fund company Allianz Global Investors. "The world's enterprises are shifting computing to the cloud. This will be an annuity that lasts for decades. They can sell so many more things to their customers over time."

共同基金公司安聯全球投資者(Allianz Global Investors)科技投資團隊負責人沃爾特·普萊斯(Walter Price)表示:“雲是我擁有這三家公司的原因。”“世界上的企業正在將計算轉向雲計算。這將是一種持續數十年的年金。隨着時間的推移,他們可以向客户出售如此多的東西。”

Price, who has been running money at Allianz for close to five decades, sees a precedent in IBM (IBM), which came to dominate tech spending in the era of mainframe computing.

普萊斯在安聯掌管資金近50年,他看到了IBM的先例,IBM在大型機計算時代主導了科技支出。

The old saying was that you don't get fired for buying IBM. Now, the saying applies to Microsoft, Price says. IBM's recipe was selling more software and more services to more customers. Each of the Big Tech companies are following the same playbook.

老話説,收購IBM不會被炒魷魚。現在,這句話適用於微軟,普萊斯説。IBM的祕訣是向更多的客户銷售更多的軟件和服務。每一家大型科技公司都在遵循同樣的策略。

There are near-term challenges, to be sure. A postpandemic hangover looks the most obvious at Amazon, where e-commerce is growing more slowly than in the past. Apple's (AAPL) quarantine-fueled hardware boom has slowed. And all of Big Tech's hardware arms are feeling the effects of component shortages and skyrocketing shipping costs. Apple has said that iPhone production could be crimped by parts shortages.

可以肯定的是,短期內存在挑戰。延遲性的宿醉在亞馬遜看來最為明顯,該公司的電子商務增長速度比過去更慢。蘋果公司(Apple)以檢疫為燃料的硬件熱潮已經放緩。大型科技公司的所有硬件部門都感受到了零部件短缺和運輸成本飆升的影響。蘋果曾表示,iPhone的生產可能會因零部件短缺而受到影響。

Another worry: Big Tech's dominance has some investors seeing a peak in valuations. Apple, which leads the pack with a $2.4 trillion market value; Microsoft ($2.2 trillion); Alphabet ($1.8 trillion); Amazon ($1.6 trillion); and Facebook ($1 trillion) now account for 23.3% of the S&P 500 index's value.

另一個令人擔憂的問題是,大型科技公司的主導地位讓一些投資者看到了估值的峯值。蘋果以2.4萬億美元的市值領跑;微軟(2.2萬億美元);Alphabet(1.8萬億美元);亞馬遜(1.6萬億美元);Facebook(1萬億美元),現在佔標準普爾500指數市值的23.3%。

Then again, skeptics have spent years waiting for the law of large numbers to kick in. At the end of 2019, the Big Tech companies were about 18% of the S&P 500. Since then, each of the stocks has gained at least 70%.

話又説回來,懷疑者多年來一直在等待大數定律生效。截至2019年底,大型科技公司約佔標準普爾500指數的18%。自那以來,每隻股票都上漲了至少70%。

Big Tech is eating the stock market, but technology is doing the same to the rest of the world -- and the five megacaps remain the best way to play the trend.

大型科技公司正在吞噬股市,但科技公司也在對世界其他地區做同樣的事情--而五百萬股仍然是把握這一趨勢的最佳方式。

Nonetheless, the regulatory overhang is real, even if there are signs that the risks have been priced in. That was one takeaway from a relief rally of 4% in Facebook (FB) stock in June after an antitrust lawsuit from the Federal Trade Commission was thrown out by a federal judge. (The FTC filed an amended version of the lawsuit on Thursday.)

儘管如此,監管過剩是真實存在的,即使有跡象表明風險已被計入價格。今年6月,美國聯邦貿易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)提起的反壟斷訴訟被一名聯邦法官駁回後,Facebook股價出現了4%的寬慰反彈。(聯邦貿易委員會於週四提交了訴訟的修訂版。)

Tech regulation is gaining steam in Washington, but the courts could hold back the most aggressive efforts. And some investors think that the worst-case scenario -- forced breakups -- could actually unlock value to the benefit of shareholders.

華盛頓的科技監管力度正在加大,但法院可能會阻止最激進的努力。一些投資者認為,最糟糕的情況--被迫拆分--實際上可能會釋放價值,讓股東受益。

The long-term business trends offset the regulatory risks. Speedy 5G mobile networks are still rolling out, for instance, which will drive strong smartphone sales and more usage of social networks and cloud-based applications.

長期的業務趨勢抵消了監管風險。例如,高速的5G移動網絡仍在鋪開,這將推動智能手機的強勁銷售,以及社交網絡和基於雲的應用的更多使用。

And then there are the wild cards, which investors haven't even begun to price in. All of Big Tech is poised to benefit if Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg's vision of a mixed reality "metaverse" comes to fruition. He sees people working, socializing, and transacting all within an even more expansive internet.

此外還有一些未知因素,投資者甚至還沒有開始計入這些因素。如果臉書首席執行官馬克·扎克伯格提出的混合現實的“元宇宙”願景成為現實,那麼整個科技巨頭都將受益。他認為,人們的工作、社交和交易都在一個更加廣闊的互聯網中進行。

Apple is weighing an entry into the automobile market, while Alphabet could dominate the future of autonomous cars through its Waymo unit. Amazon and Apple are both taking a stab at healthcare and fitness. Facebook hasn't even tried making money off WhatsApp, its global messaging platform with about two billion users.

蘋果正在考慮進入汽車市場,而Alphabet可能通過旗下的Waymo主導自動駕駛汽車的未來。亞馬遜和蘋果都在醫療保健和健身領域進行嘗試。Facebook甚至還沒有嘗試利用WhatsApp賺錢,WhatsApp是Facebook的全球通訊平臺,擁有約20億用户。

The investment upside applies across Big Tech, but each company has different opportunities and challenges. Here's a closer look at the Big Tech five:

投資的好處適用於整個大型科技公司,但每家公司都有不同的機會和挑戰。以下是科技行業五大巨頭的詳細介紹:

Amazon best illustrates the current risks -- and untapped potential -- of the group. Its stock has been under pressure since late last month, when Amazon said it was seeing a slowdown in e-commerce growth as more people leave home to shop.

亞馬遜最好地説明瞭該集團當前的風險--以及尚未開發的潛力。亞馬遜的股價自上月底以來一直承壓,當時亞馬遜表示,隨着越來越多的人離家購物,它的電子商務增長正在放緩。

Amazon is also in the crosshairs of regulators and lawmakers. The FTC is reviewing the company's proposed acquisition of the MGM film studio. The primary question is whether to allow the big to get bigger. Should the agency seek to block the deal, it would signal a shift in how regulators approach tech consolidation. But don't expect a rejection to move Amazon's stock in the long term. MGM films would be a nice addition to Amazon's Prime Video offering, but they won't move the needle on the company's bottom line.

亞馬遜也是監管機構和立法者的靶子。聯邦貿易委員會正在審查該公司收購米高梅電影製片廠的提議。首要問題是是否允許大公司變得更大。如果該機構尋求阻止這筆交易,這將標誌着監管機構對待科技整合的方式發生了轉變。但從長遠來看,不要指望亞馬遜的拒絕會影響亞馬遜的股價。米高梅電影將是亞馬遜Prime Video服務的一個很好的補充,但它們不會改變公司的利潤。

In testifying to Congress last year, Amazon's founder and then-CEO Jeff Bezos said, "I believe Amazon should be scrutinized. We should scrutinize all large institutions, whether they're companies, government agencies, or nonprofits. Our responsibility is to make sure we pass such scrutiny with flying colors."

去年,亞馬遜創始人、時任首席執行官傑夫·貝佐斯在國會作證時表示:“我認為亞馬遜應該受到審查。我們應該審查所有大型機構,無論它們是公司、政府機構還是非營利組織。我們的責任是確保我們出色地通過審查。”

That said, investors could miss the big picture by focusing on Amazon's battles with regulators. The company offers an opportunity to invest in three of the most important elements of the current economy: online commerce, cloud computing, and transportation logistics. Amazon also has a growing advertising business, and big ambitions in healthcare and bricks-and-mortar retail. This past week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Amazon is planning to open department-store-style retail outlets.

話雖如此,如果投資者把注意力放在亞馬遜與監管機構之間的鬥爭上,可能會偏離對大局的預期。該公司提供了一個投資當前經濟中最重要的三個元素的機會:在線商務、雲計算和運輸物流。亞馬遜還擁有不斷增長的廣告業務,並在醫療保健和實體零售領域雄心勃勃。上週,《華爾街日報》報道稱,亞馬遜正計劃開設百貨商店式的零售店。

Even with a $1.6 trillion current market valuation, Amazon might be a bargain based on its cloud business alone. Growth at Amazon Web Services is accelerating, and revenue from the unit could hit an annualized $100 billion by 2023. Valuing that business at, say, 15 times sales (most cloud application companies fetch higher valuations than that), gives you a market cap of $1.5 trillion, meaning that investors are getting Amazon's e-commerce business and its nascent advertising business almost for free.

即使亞馬遜目前的市值為1.6萬億美元,單從其雲業務來看,也可能是一筆劃算的交易。亞馬遜網絡服務的增長正在加速,到2023年,該部門的年化收入可能達到1000億美元。比如説,將這項業務的估值定為銷售額的15倍(大多數雲應用程序公司的估值高於這個數字),你的市值將達到1.5萬億美元,這意味着投資者幾乎免費獲得了亞馬遜的電子商務業務及其新生的廣告業務。

Amazon stock has been basically flat for a year. At some point, investors will do the math.

亞馬遜股票一年來基本持平。總有一天,投資者會算算的。

The iPhone maker's shares have doubled since the end of 2019, increasing the company's market capitalization by more than $1 trillion. Apple grew sales 36% in its latest quarter, following 54% growth in the March quarter -- the company's two best quarters since 2012.

自2019年底以來,這家iPhone製造商的股價翻了一番,使公司市值增加了超過1萬億美元。蘋果在最近一個季度的銷售額增長了36%,而3月份的季度銷售額增長了54%,這是該公司自2012年以來表現最好的兩個季度。

Apple, meanwhile, is more diverse than ever. While the latest iPhone 12 is a hit, with sales up almost 50% in the latest quarter, everything else is working, too. The company continues to see double-digit growth for its Macs, iPads, and wearables businesses. Apple's services segment grew 33% in the latest quarter. All told, the iPhone is now about 50% of Apple sales, down from 66% in 2015.

與此同時,蘋果比以往任何時候都更加多樣化。雖然最新的iPhone12大受歡迎,最近一個季度的銷售額增長了近50%,但其他一切也都很正常。該公司的Mac、iPad和可穿戴設備業務繼續以兩位數的速度增長。蘋果的服務部門在最近一個季度增長了33%。總體而言,iPhone目前約佔蘋果銷售額的50%,低於2015年的66%。

There are near-term headwinds, however. A few weeks from now, Apple will unveil its follow-up to the iPhone 12. The upgrades are expected to be modest, and Apple has already warned that it could have trouble meeting demand because of worsening component shortages.

然而,短期內也存在一些不利因素。幾周後,蘋果將發佈iPhone 12的後續產品。預計升級幅度不會太大,蘋果已經警告稱,由於日益嚴重的零部件短缺,它可能難以滿足需求。

Among the Big Tech group, Apple could face the most immediate regulatory risk, given growing complaints about its hefty 30% commission rate on sales in its App Store. Epic Games sued Apple over the issue -- a decision on the case is pending -- and the situation has received attention in Washington. In July, three dozen state attorneys general sued Alphabet over the fees charged by its Google Play store, and a parallel action against Apple seems inevitable.

在科技巨頭集團中,蘋果可能面臨最直接的監管風險,因為越來越多的人抱怨蘋果應用商店的銷售佣金高達30%。Epic遊戲公司就這一問題起訴了蘋果公司,該案還在等待裁決,這一事件已經引起了華盛頓的關注。今年7月,30多個州的總檢察長起訴Alphabet,指控其在谷歌Play商店收取費用,而針對蘋果的類似訴訟似乎不可避免。

In defending the App Store to lawmakers last year, Apple CEO Tim Cook said, "For the vast majority of apps, developers keep 100% of the money they make. The only apps that are subject to a commission are those where the developer acquires a customer on an Apple device and where the features or services would be experienced and consumed on an Apple device."

去年,蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克在為蘋果應用商店向立法者辯護時説:“對於絕大多數應用來説,開發者100%地保留他們賺到的錢。只有那些開發者在蘋果設備上獲得客户,並在蘋果設備上體驗和消費這些功能或服務的應用,才需要收取佣金。”

App tracker Sensor Tower, estimates that Apple generated commissions of $21.7 billion from the App Store in 2020, or about 8% of its annual revenue. Even if Apple is forced to cut its 30% commission in half, the hit would be less than 5% of Apple's total revenue.

App Track Sensor Tower估計,蘋果在2020年從App Store獲得了217億美元的佣金,約佔其年收入的8%。即使蘋果被迫將其30%的佣金削減一半,其影響也不到蘋果總收入的5%。

Gene Munster, managing partner at the investment firm Loup Ventures, is bullish on the whole set of tech megacaps, but he has a particular preference for Apple, a company he once covered as an analyst at Piper Jaffray. He concedes that Apple is headed for a step down in growth but thinks that Wall Street is too negative. He sees Apple still growing sales 10% in its upcoming 2022 fiscal year, versus a 3.4% forecast from analysts.-

投資公司Loup Ventures的管理合夥人吉恩·蒙斯特看好一整套科技巨頭,但他特別偏愛蘋果,他曾在Piper Jaffray擔任分析師時追蹤這家公司。他承認,蘋果的增長正在放緩,但他認為華爾街過於悲觀。他預計,蘋果在即將到來的2022財年的銷售額仍將增長10%,而分析師的預測為3.4%。

The wild card for Apple investors is the possibility that the company jumps into making cars. Munster puts the chances at less than 50%, but says that if it happens, it would be a "measurable multiple expander" for the stock. Apple currently trades at 26 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months; Tesla (TSLA) fetches an earnings multiple north of 100.

蘋果投資者面臨的不確定因素是,該公司可能會跳入汽車製造行業。明斯特認為這種可能性不到50%,但他表示,如果發生這種情況,對該股來説將是一個可衡量的倍數擴張器。蘋果目前的市盈率為26倍,而特斯拉(Tesla)的市盈率則超過了100倍。

Microsoft has thrived in the pandemic era, as more companies adopted digital processes to ensure their survival in a world of shuttered offices and limited travel. The surge in PC demand triggered by the work-from-home trend has boosted the Windows business, lifted sales of Microsoft's Surface line of tablets and laptops, and buoyed demand for its Xbox videogame consoles. The company has even seen a pickup in ad revenue, thanks to both the company's Bing search engine and growth on LinkedIn, which, as of the latest quarter, is generating revenue at an annualized rate of more than $10 billion.

微軟在大流行時代蓬勃發展,因為越來越多的公司採用數字流程,以確保自己在辦公室關門和旅行受限的世界中生存。在家工作的趨勢引發的個人電腦需求激增提振了Windows業務,提振了微軟Surface平板電腦和筆記本電腦的銷售,並提振了對Xbox視頻遊戲機的需求。該公司的廣告收入甚至出現了回升,這要歸功於公司的必應搜索引擎和LinkedIn的增長。截至最近一個季度,LinkedIn的年化收入超過100億美元。

But the core driver has been the growth of the company's Azure cloud business -- sales were up 51% in the latest quarter -- and accelerating adoption of cloud-based versions of Microsoft's software, including Office and its communications suite called Teams.

但最核心的驅動力是微軟Azure雲業務的增長--最近一個季度銷售額增長了51%--以及微軟軟件基於雲的版本的加速採用,包括Office及其名為Team的通信套件。

"I shudder to think what the world would have been like if it were not for digital technology and the cloud and collaboration platforms like Teams," said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella in a recent Barron's interview. "Even five or 10 years ago, I think we would have been in deep trouble."

微軟首席執行官薩蒂亞·納德拉最近在接受巴倫採訪時表示:“如果沒有數字技術、雲和團隊等協作平臺,世界會是什麼樣子,我不寒而慄。”“即使在5年或10年前,我認為我們也會陷入深深的麻煩之中。”

Microsoft's revenue grew 18% for the June 2021 fiscal year, and the company projects "healthy" double-digit revenue growth for fiscal 2022. But that steady growth does not come cheap. Microsoft has a market value of $2.2 trillion, which makes it the world's largest company after Apple. And it trades for 33 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, making it the most expensive name in Big Tech relative to growth.

微軟在2021財年6月的營收增長了18%,該公司預計2022財年營收將實現“健康”的兩位數增長。但這種穩定的增長並不便宜。微軟的市值為2.2萬億美元,這使其成為僅次於蘋果的全球最大公司。它的股價是未來12個月預期收益的33倍,使其成為相對於增長而言最昂貴的大型科技公司。

But for risk-averse investors, Microsoft is also the least vulnerable to regulation. Once the primary target of antitrust regulators, the company has been largely left out of the current regulatory debate.

但對於厭惡風險的投資者來説,微軟也是最不容易受到監管影響的。該公司曾是反壟斷監管機構的主要目標,但在很大程度上被排除在當前的監管辯論之外。

The opportunity in online advertising, the primary domain of Alphabet (and Facebook), might get less attention than the cloud and smartphones, but it is no less compelling. In the recent June quarter, Alphabet's ad sales grew 69%.

在線廣告是Alphabet(和臉書)的主要領域,在線廣告的機會可能沒有云和智能手機那麼受關注,但它的吸引力並不亞於雲。在最近的6月份這個季度,Alphabet的廣告銷售額增長了69%。

YouTube's ad revenue soared 84%, to $7 billion, in the second quarter, putting the business on par with Netflix (NFLX), which reported quarterly revenue of $7.3 billion. Netflix is expected to grow sales by 19%, to $29.7 billion this year, while YouTube's ad revenue is forecast to rise 45%, to $28.7 billion.

YouTube的廣告收入在第二季度飆升了84%,達到70億美元,與網飛公司(Netflix)持平,後者公佈的季度收入為73億美元。預計Netflix今年的銷售額將增長19%,至297億美元,而YouTube的廣告收入預計將增長45%,至287億美元。

Alphabet's growth isn't fully appreciated. Alphabet's Class A shares fetch an inexpensive 26 times forward earnings.

新浪Alphabet的增長並未得到充分認可。Alphabet A類股的預期市盈率為26倍,並不算貴。

"You're paying a market multiple for the core Google ad-services business, and then you're getting the cloud and all the other bets for free," says Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Funds.

RiverPark Funds首席投資官米奇·魯賓(Mitch Rubin)表示:“你為谷歌核心的廣告服務業務支付了市盈率,然後你就免費獲得了雲服務和所有其他押注。”

Some of the other bets could soon come in focus. The company started breaking out results for its cloud computing unit last year. In the recent quarter, it slashed operating losses for the cloud by more than half. While rivals Amazon and Microsoft remain fierce competitors, Alphabet has a mix of artificial intelligence and machine learning that will be key to driving Wall Street's forecasted cloud growth of 51% this year.

其他一些押注可能很快就會成為焦點。該公司去年開始公佈其雲計算部門的業績。在最近一個季度,它將雲計算的運營虧損削減了一半以上。雖然競爭對手亞馬遜和微軟仍然是激烈的競爭對手,但Alphabet將人工智能和機器學習結合在一起,這將是推動華爾街今年雲計算增長51%的關鍵。

The core business -- search advertising -- is doing just fine meanwhile. Google remains the world's largest seller of advertising, and YouTube accounts for just roughly 11% of revenue.

與此同時,其核心業務--搜索廣告--的表現也不錯。谷歌仍然是世界上最大的廣告銷售商,YouTube僅佔其收入的11%左右。

Google represents more than 90% of internet search visits in the U.S., and its clear dominance there makes it an obvious target for regulators.

谷歌佔美國互聯網搜索訪問量的90%以上,其在該市場的明顯主導地位使其成為監管機構的明顯目標。

Alphabet is facing antitrust litigation from the Department of Justice and multiple state attorneys general over alleged monopolistic practices in search advertising -- a threat to the company's oldest-running moneymaker.

Alphabet正面臨美國司法部和多個州總檢察長的反壟斷訴訟,原因是該公司涉嫌在搜索廣告領域存在壟斷行為,這對該公司歷史最悠久的搖錢樹構成威脅。

Alphabet called the lawsuits misleading, flawed, and dubious, and vowed to defend itself in court.

Alphabet稱這些訴訟具有誤導性、缺陷和可疑之處,並誓言要在法庭上為自己辯護。

Facebook generates the most controversy of the Big Tech firms. In recent weeks, the social networking giant has drawn the ire of the White House over its treatment of Covid-19 vaccine misinformation, and some lawmakers have spoken out about what they perceive to be violations of their free speech. Through it all, though, Facebook has remained a compelling stock, an opportunity that Barron's highlighted in an April cover story.

Facebook是大型科技公司中爭議最大的。最近幾周,這家社交網絡巨頭因其對新冠肺炎疫苗虛假信息的處理引發了白宮的憤怒,一些議員公開表示,他們認為這是對他們言論自由的侵犯。儘管如此,Facebook仍然是一隻引人注目的股票,巴倫在4月份的一篇封面故事中強調了這一機會。

Even after a 30% gain this year, Facebook shares trade at just 23 times forward earnings, making it the cheapest of the Big Tech stocks and just a bit more pricey than the S&P 500, even though Facebook remains in clear growth mode.

即使在今年上漲了30%之後,Facebook的預期市盈率也只有23倍,是大型科技股中最便宜的,略高於標準普爾500指數,儘管Facebook仍處於明顯的增長模式。

"For an asset that can grow earnings over the next three years at something close to 30%, I think that's highly attractive," says Evercore's Mahaney. "There is a lot of valuation support for where the stock is now."

Evercore的馬哈尼表示:“對於一項能夠在未來三年實現近30%的收益增長的資產來説,我認為這是非常有吸引力的。”“對該股目前的估值水平有很大的支持。”

One area that gets overlooked by investors is Facebook's growing focus on commerce. Facebook now has 1.2 million active shops, where small and medium-size businesses can tap Facebook's enormous social network to sell their wares.

一個被投資者忽視的領域是Facebook對商務的日益關注。Facebook現在有120萬家活躍的商店,中小型企業可以在這些商店裏利用Facebook巨大的社交網絡來銷售他們的商品。

Shopify (SHOP), which provides similar e-commerce tools to businesses, is valued at $183 billion. That is the kind of value that could accrue to Facebook over time.

為企業提供類似電子商務工具的Shopify(商店)估值為1,830億美元。隨着時間的推移,這是Facebook可能會積累的那種價值。

And seven years after buying WhatsApp, Facebook has turned the service into a global phenomenon. The company is slowly adding payment transfers to the app, making it a potential rival to PayPal Holdings' (PYPL) Venmo.

在收購WhatsApp七年後,Facebook已經將這項服務變成了一種全球現象。該公司正在慢慢地將轉賬功能添加到這款應用中,使其成為貝寶控股(PayPal Holdings)旗下的Venmo的潛在競爭對手。

There could be near-term hiccups, though. Facebook's ever-conservative chief financial officer, David Wehner, has warned investors that revenue growth will slow modestly for the rest of the year, even when compared with the pre-Covid, 2019 numbers.

不過,短期內可能會出現一些小問題。Facebook一向保守的首席財務官大衞·韋納警告投資者,今年剩餘時間的收入增長將略有放緩,即使與2019年Covid之前的數字相比也是如此。

Privacy changes from Apple have complicated ad targeting on some of Facebook's mobile apps. The company has suggested that its third-quarter results could be affected by the changes.

蘋果對隱私的改變使Facebook的一些移動應用上的廣告投放變得更加複雜。該公司表示,其第三季度業績可能會受到這些變化的影響。

Then there's the potential regulation. A Facebook spokesman called the FTC's revised lawsuit against the company "meritless," saying that "the FTC's claims are an effort to rewrite antitrust laws and upend settled expectations of merger review, declaring to the business community that no sale is ever final."

然後是潛在的監管。Facebook的一位發言人稱,聯邦貿易委員會修改後對該公司的訴訟是“毫無根據的”,稱“聯邦貿易委員會的指控是為了重寫反壟斷法,顛覆對合並審查的既定預期,並向商界宣佈,沒有任何出售是最終的。”

So far, the agency's efforts have just highlighted the high bar facing regulators.

到目前為止,該機構的努力只是突顯了監管機構面臨的高門檻。

In dismissing the FTC's initial lawsuit against Facebook, Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia wrote, "It is almost as if the agency expects the court to simply nod to the conventional wisdom that Facebook is a monopolist."

在駁回聯邦貿易委員會最初對Facebook提起的訴訟時,美國哥倫比亞特區地區法院的法官詹姆斯·博斯伯格寫道:“這幾乎就像是該機構希望法院只是簡單地點頭接受Facebook是壟斷者的傳統智慧。”

Investors have done well by ignoring such conventional wisdom. Since Barron's first highlighted the regulatory threat for Big Tech in an October 2017 cover story, the five stocks have returned an average of 218%, versus 84% for the S&P 500.

投資者無視這些傳統智慧,做得很好。自巴倫在2017年10月的一篇封面故事中首次強調監管對大型科技公司的威脅以來,這五隻股票的平均回報率為218%,而標準普爾500指數的回報率為84%。

Investors will probably see continued gains from the stocks, even as regulators work overtime to make their case against Big Tech.

投資者可能會看到這些股票繼續上漲,儘管監管機構正在加班加點地對大型科技公司提起訴訟。

Write to Eric J. Savitz at eric.savitz@barrons.com and Max A. Cherney at max.cherney@barrons.com

寫信給埃裏克·J·薩維茨(eric.savitz@Barrons.com)和馬克斯·A·切爾尼(Max A.Cherney)

To subscribe to Barron's, visit http://www.barrons.com/subscribe

欲訂閲巴倫百貨,請訪問http://www.barrons.com/subscribe

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August 20, 2021 21:31 ET (01:31 GMT)

2021年8月20日21:31東部時間(格林尼治標準時間01:31)

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