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Telsa Short Squeeze? Why It’s Not Going to Happen

Telsa Short Squeeze? Why It’s Not Going to Happen

特爾薩空壓機?為什麼它不會發生?
InvestorPlace ·  2021/07/31 22:23

TSLA stock has a large short interest, but don’t expect a short squeeze.

TSLA股票有很大的空頭權益,但不要指望會有空頭擠壓。

Short squeezes have been all the rage on Wall Street in 2021. But even with its massive short interest, traders shouldn’t expect a short squeeze fromTesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)

2021年,做空在華爾街風靡一時。但即使有大量的空頭興趣,交易員也不應預期會出現空頭擠壓特斯拉(納斯達克:特拉斯)

GameStop(NYSE:GME) andAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) are just two examples of stocks that skyrocketed this year thanks to short squeezes. Short sellers have always liked TSLA stock. But it takes more than just a large amount of short interest to trigger a short squeeze.

遊戲停止紐約證券交易所代碼:GME)和AMC娛樂公司紐約證券交易所代碼:AMC)只是今年由於空頭擠壓而飆升的兩個股票例子。賣空者一直喜歡TSLA股票。但要引發空頭擠壓,需要的不僅僅是大量的空頭利息。

The most important factor when it comes to a short squeeze isn’t total short interest.

當涉及到空頭緊縮時,最重要的因素並不完全是空頭利率。

Anatomy of a Short Squeeze

短擠壓的解剖

It’s short percent of float. A company’s total number of existing shares are its shares outstanding. However, a significant portion of those shares outstanding are typically held by large institutional investors and company insiders. On a standard day in the market, big institutions and company executives aren’t trading millions of dollars of stock.

這是浮點數的很短的百分比。一家公司的現有股票總數就是它的流通股。然而,這些流通股中有很大一部分通常由大型機構投資者和公司內部人士持有。在市場正常的一天,大型機構和公司高管不會交易數百萬美元的股票。

Everyone familiar with the basics of a free market knows that price is typically determined by market supply and demand. In the stock market, the number of shares of stock is the supply side of the equation. If company insiders and institutions aren’t selling, their shares aren’t available to contribute to the available market supply.

熟悉自由市場基本原理的人都知道,價格通常是由市場供求決定的。在股票市場上,股票的數量是供給方的決定因素。如果公司內部人士和機構不拋售股票,他們的股票就無法為可用的市場供應做出貢獻。

A company’s “float” represents the total shares not held by company insiders or institutions. In a practical sense, it represents the effective supply of shares available to trade freely on the market.

公司的“流通股”是指非公司內部人士或機構持有的全部股份。在實際意義上,它代表了可在市場上自由交易的股票的有效供應。

A short squeeze is triggered in part when there is not enough supply of shares to meet demand. That dynamic sends a stock’s share price soaring. And that soaring share price triggers short sellers to cover their positions by buying stock. The more short sellers cover, the bigger the losses remaining short sellers endure.

在一定程度上,當沒有足夠的股票供應來滿足需求時,就會觸發空頭擠壓。這種動力推動一隻股票的股價飆升。股價的飆升促使賣空者通過買入股票來回補頭寸。賣空者回補的越多,剩下的賣空者承受的損失就越大。

At some point, the positive feedback loop hits the point of no return and the stock takes off to the moon.

在某種程度上,正反饋循環達到了不歸路的地步,股票飛向月球。

Short percent of float is calculated by taking the total short interest and dividing by the total float. It’s a crude estimate of just how explosive a short squeeze could be if all the short sellers are forced to cover all at once.

浮動資金的空頭百分比是通過將總的空頭利息除以總浮動資金來計算的。這只是一個粗略的估計,如果所有賣空者被迫同時回補,空頭擠壓可能會有多大的爆炸性。

TSLA Stock vs. GameStop

TSLA庫存與GameStop

According toOrtex Analytics, TSLA stock recently had a total short interest of about 32.36 million shares. At a share price of about $645, short sellers were betting $20.87 billion against TSLA stock.

根據Ortex Analytics的數據,TSLA股票最近的空頭權益總額約為3236萬股。在股價約為645美元的情況下,賣空者押注208.7億美元做空TSLA股票。

GameStop recently had about 8 million shares held short, according to Ortex. At a share price of $169, that means GameStop’s total short interest was about $1.35 billion.

根據Ortex的數據,GameStop最近持有約800萬股空頭股票。以169美元的股價計算,這意味着GameStop的空頭權益總額約為13.5億美元。

So how is it that GME stock experienced the mother of all short squeezes back in January? Meanwhile, TSLA stock is down 4.7% year-to-date.

那麼,GME股票是如何經歷1月份所有空頭擠壓之母的呢?與此同時,TSLA的股價今年迄今下跌了4.7%。

GameStop’s short percent of float recently was about 13.3%. Any number over 10% is relatively high, but it’s nothing crazy for a company like GameStop that is struggling so badly. Tesla’s short percent of float is currently just 4.1%, which is certainly nothing extraordinary.

GameStop最近持有的短期流通股比例約為13.3%。任何超過10%的數字都是相對較高的,但對於GameStop這樣一家舉步維艱的公司來説,這並不是什麼瘋狂的事情。特斯拉的短期流通股比例目前僅為4.1%,這當然沒什麼特別之處。

Back on Jan. 15, GameStop’s short percent of float was an eye-popping 107.7%. That extremely high short interest coupled with the flood of Reddit traders buying the stock is the reason GME stock skyrocketed from under $20 to as high as $483 in just a couple of weeks. It was a classic short squeeze.

早在1月15日,GameStop的短期浮動百分比就達到了令人瞠目結舌的107.7%。極高的空頭利率,加上Reddit交易員蜂擁而至購買這隻股票,是GME股價在短短几周內從不到20美元飆升至483美元的原因。這是一次典型的空頭擠壓。

Since that time, GameStop’s short interest and short percent of float plummeted. It’s no coincidence the stock has dropped back below $165 as well.

從那時起,GameStop的空頭利率和浮動資金的空頭百分比直線下降。它的股價也回落到165美元以下,這也不是巧合。

What Does This Mean for Tesla?

這對特斯拉意味着什麼?

Yes, short sellers are betting $20.87 billion against Tesla, which is a massive amount of money. But Tesla is a $620 billion company with a huge float. It’s highly unlikely there will ever be the type of supply shortage in TSLA stock that triggered the AMC and GameStop short squeezes earlier this year.

是的,賣空者押注208.7億美元做空特斯拉,這是一大筆錢。但特斯拉是一家市值6200億美元、流通股規模巨大的公司。今年早些時候引發AMC和GameStop賣空的TSLA股票供應短缺的可能性極小。

TSLA stock is not a great short squeeze candidate. Tesla is a story stock. It trades higher or lower based on the story that CEO Elon Musk and other Tesla enthusiasts spread about the company’s potential to completely take over the global auto, energy, technology and transportation industries in the long-term.

TSLA股票不是一個很好的做空候選者。特斯拉是一個故事庫。根據特斯拉首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克和其他特斯拉愛好者散佈的關於該公司長期完全接管全球汽車、能源、技術和交通行業的潛力的故事,特斯拉的股價漲跌不一。

When chapters get added to the story, the stock goes higher. Musk is an excellent storyteller, and he has legions of followers willing to listen to anything he says.

當故事中增加章節時,股價就會走高。馬斯克是一位優秀的故事家,他有一大批追隨者願意聽他説的任何話。

Byalmost everyobjective fundamental valuation metric, TSLA stock is extremely overvalued. But I have always said story stocks are too dangerous to go long or short. I continue to recommend investors simply stay away from TSLA stock all together.

從幾乎所有客觀的基本面估值指標來看,TSLA股票的估值都被嚴重高估了。但我一直説,故事股太危險了,不能做多或做空。我繼續建議投資者乾脆一起遠離TSLA股票。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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