Economists were surprised by the fact that the US non-farm payrolls data for April fell far short of expectations, and when the data were released in May, they were ready for a variety of situations.
Economists' expectations for non-farm payrolls growth in May vary widely, from as low as 335000 to as high as 1 million, according to a Bloomberg survey. Last month's data were disappointing and lower than all economists had expected, and some forecasters adjusted their models ahead of Friday's new data.
"I have some models that show zero, while others show 1 million people," said Aneta Markowska, chief US financial economist at Jefferies LLC. "that's the way it is. To be honest, anything is possible. "
The economic recovery is so uneven that it is no wonder that experts find it difficult to make accurate predictions. On the one hand, the climate is warming across the United States, a large number of adults who have completed vaccinations are eager to travel and socialize again, and the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures also suggests that the catering industry will hire a large number of staff. In addition, schools have reopened and more people have returned to their offices.
At the same time, employers still say they can't find enough workers to fill the vacancy, as health concerns, childcare needs and increased unemployment protection may have reduced some people's willingness to look for jobs. There are also persistent supply chain bottlenecks and a global shortage of chips, constraining manufacturers and car companies.
These factors make forecasting more and more difficult. In April, non-farm payrolls rose by 266000, but economists expected 1 million. The actual figure was lower than expected, the largest since records began in 1996. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a median increase of 655000 for the May data.
Before the epidemic, it was estimated that there was a gap of about 20,000 people. Now, the standard deviation, which measures the degree of discretization of estimates, is about 146000.
"you will encounter these bottlenecks when you reopen the economy," said Brett Ryan, a senior US economist at Deutsche Bank Securities. "if it was 500000, I wouldn't be surprised, and 1 million wouldn't be surprised."