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The 2021 Berkshire AGM | Meeting notes

The 2021 Berkshire AGM | Meeting notes

2021年伯克希爾年度股東大會|會議紀要
Moomoo News ·  2021/05/01 19:24  · 熱門

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Hi moomooers! 

Welcome to the 2021 Berkshire AGM live updates by moomoo.

嗨,牛友們!

歡迎收看2021年伯克希爾年度股東大會,moomoo現場更新。

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1:30 pm ET meeting starts

東部時間下午1:30會議開始

Participants: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ajit Jain, and Greg Abel

參與者:沃倫·巴菲特、查理·芒格、阿吉特·賈恩和格雷格·阿貝爾

Warren Buffett begins the meeting with Charlie Munger by his side, along with a box of peanut brittle and some Coca-Cola products. 

沃倫·巴菲特在查理·芒格的陪伴下開始了會議,隨行的還有一盒花生糖和一些可口可樂產品。

He mentions that they are in LA because they all wanted to do this with Charlie Munger.

他提到,他們在洛杉磯是因為他們都想和查理·芒格一起做這件事。

Buffett says he will introduce the three chairman with him and after that, he will be discussing Berkshire's earnings. Then he will have some "lessons" to show the record number of new investors that have just entered the market.

巴菲特説,他將向他介紹這三位董事長,之後,他將討論伯克希爾的收益。然後,他將上一些“課”,向人們展示剛剛入市的新投資者的創紀錄數量。

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Buffett: Don't look at Berkshire in a daily way, over time Berkshire would show a capital gain.

巴菲特:不要每天都看伯克希爾,隨着時間的推移,伯克希爾會出現資本收益。

"The economy went off a cliff in March. It was resurrected in an extraordinarily effective way by Federal Reserve action and later on the fiscal front by Congress," Buffett said in opening remarks at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting."

巴菲特在伯克希爾的年度股東大會上致開幕詞時表示:“經濟在3月份跌落懸崖。美聯儲的行動以非常有效的方式重振了經濟,後來國會又在財政戰線上重振了經濟。”

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Here is a list of the 20 largest companies by market cap in 1989.

以下是1989年市值最大的20家公司的名單。

None of the top 20 companies on the list 30 years ago has made it on the list 30 years later. 

30年前上榜的前20家公司中,沒有一家在30年後上榜。

It's a reminder of what extraordinary things could happen.

它提醒人們,可能會發生什麼非同尋常的事情。

"It tells you that capitalism has worked incredibly well, especially for the capitalists ... The world can change in very, very dramatic ways," Buffett said, adding that the best way to invest is via index funds.

巴菲特説:“它告訴你,資本主義運行得非常好,特別是對資本家來説……世界可以以非常、非常戲劇性的方式發生變化。”他補充説,最好的投資方式是通過指數基金。

Buffett: There's a lot more to investing than picking a budding industry

巴菲特:投資不僅僅是選擇一個萌芽行業

Buffett put up a slide of all the auto companies from years ago that started with the letter "M;" however, the list was so long it didn’t fit on one slide. The "Oracle of Omaha" had to narrow the list to automobile manufacturers that started with "Ma" to fit the names on one page.

巴菲特展示了一張幾年前所有汽車公司的幻燈片,這些公司都是以字母“M”開頭的;然而,這份名單太長了,一張幻燈片都容不下。這位“奧馬哈先知”不得不將名單縮小到以“Ma”開頭的汽車製造商,以便將名字放在一頁上。

Buffett said there were about 2,000 companies that entered the auto business in the 1900′s because investors and entrepreneurs expected the industry to have an amazing future. In 2009, there were three automakers left and two went bankrupt, said Buffett.

巴菲特説,20世紀大約有2000家公司進入汽車業,因為投資者和企業家希望汽車業有一個令人驚歎的未來。巴菲特説,2009年,只剩下三家汽車製造商,兩家破產。

Q&A section

問答部分

Participants: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Ajit Jain, and Greg Abel

參與者:沃倫·巴菲特、查理·芒格、阿吉特·賈恩和格雷格·阿貝爾

Buffett still doesn't want to own airlines

巴菲特仍然不想擁有航空公司

"An industry that was really selling for less than $100 billion lost a significant amount of money, they lost prospective earnings power...international travel’s not come back...I do not consider it a great moment in Berkshire’s history but also we’ve got more net worth than any company in the United States...I think the airline business has done better because we sold and I wish them well but I still wouldn’t want to buy the airline business."

“一個真正價值不到1000億美元的行業損失慘重,他們失去了預期的盈利能力……國際旅行不會再回來了……我不認為這是伯克希爾哈撒韋公司歷史上的偉大時刻,但我們的淨資產比美國任何一家公司都多……我認為航空公司業務做得更好,因為我們出售了,我希望他們一切順利,但我仍然不想收購航空公司業務。”

Buffett: I recommend the S&P 500 index fund ... I've never recommended Berkshire to anybody

巴菲特:我推薦標準普爾500指數基金……我從來沒有向任何人推薦過伯克希爾

"On my death, there's a fund for my then-widow, and 90% will go into an S&P 500 index fund."

“在我去世時,有一隻基金是為我當時的遺孀設立的,其中90%將投入一隻標準普爾500指數基金。”

"I do not think the average person can pick stocks, we happen to have a large group of people that didn't pick stocks but they picked Charlie and me to manage money for them 50, 60 years ago. So we have a very unusual group of shareholders I think who look at Berkshire as a lifetime savings vehicle and one that they don’t have to think about and one that they'll, you know, they don't look at it again for 10 to 20 years."

“我認為普通人不會選股票,我們碰巧有一大羣人沒有選股票,但他們在五六十年前選擇了查理和我來為他們管理資金。所以我們有一羣非常不尋常的股東,我認為他們把伯克希爾視為畢生的儲蓄工具,他們不必考慮,你知道,他們在10到20年內都不會再看到它。”

Buffett says he has no issue owning Chevron, other fossil fuel companies

巴菲特表示,他對擁有雪佛龍和其他化石燃料公司沒有問題

"People who are on the extreme of both sides are a little nuts. I would hate to have all hydrocarbons banned in three years. It wouldn’t work. And on the other hand, what's happening will be adapted to overtime."

“兩個極端的人都有點瘋狂。我討厭在三年內禁止所有碳氫化合物。這是行不通的。另一方面,現在發生的事情會適應加班。”

"There's something about every business that, if you knew it, you wouldn't like ... if you expect perfection in your spouse or in your friends or in companies, you're not going to find it."

“每個企業都有一些東西,如果你知道的話,你不會喜歡的……如果你希望你的配偶、朋友或公司做到完美,你就找不到了。”

Buffett and Munger never had an argument over the past 62 years

在過去的62年裏,巴菲特和芒格從未發生過爭執

"Warren and I don’t have to agree on every damn little thing we do. We get along pretty well," the 97-year-old Munger said.

97歲的芒格説:“沃倫和我沒有必要在我們做的每一件小事上都達成一致。我們相處得很好。”

"We have never had an argument in 62 years. Not that we agree on everything but we’ve never gotten mad at each other," Buffett said.

巴菲特説:“我們62年來從未發生過爭執。並不是説我們在所有問題上都意見一致,而是我們從未對彼此發火。”

Buffett said selling some Apple stock last year was ‘probably a mistake’

巴菲特説,去年出售一些蘋果股票可能是一個錯誤。

"We got a chance to buy it and I sold some stock last year...that was probably a mistake," said Buffett.

“我們有機會買下它,去年我賣出了一些股票……這可能是個錯誤,”巴菲特説。

"The part it plays in their lives is huge," he said. "A car costs $35,000 and I’m sure with some people if you asked them whether they wanted to give up, had to give up, their Apple, they’d give up their car."

“它在他們的生活中扮演着重要的角色,”他説。“一輛車的價格是3.5萬美元,我敢肯定,對於一些人來説,如果你問他們是否想放棄,他們不得不放棄,他們的蘋果,他們會放棄他們的車。”

Buffett says of SPACs are similar to a 'gambling-type market' 

巴菲特説SPAC類似於一個“賭博型市場”

"The SPACs generally have to spend their money in two years, as I understand it. If you have to buy a business in two years, you put a gun to my head and said you've got to buy a business in two years, I'd buy one but it wouldn't be much of one," Buffett. 

巴菲特説:“據我所知,SPAC通常必須在兩年內花掉他們的錢。如果你必須在兩年內收購一家企業,你就拿槍指着我的頭,説你必須在兩年內收購一家企業,我會買一家,但也不會是一年。”

"If you're running money from somebody else and you get a fee and you get the upside and you don't have the downside, you're going to buy something," he added. "And frankly we're not competitive with that." 

他補充説:“如果你從別人那裏理財,你得到了一筆費用,你得到了好處,但你沒有壞處,你會買一些東西。”“坦率地説,我們在這方面沒有競爭力。”

"It's an exaggerated version of what we've seen in kind of a gambling-type market," he added. 

“這是我們在一種賭博型市場中看到的誇張版本,”他補充道。

"We’re not going to have much luck on acquisitions while this sort of a period continues."

“在這樣的時期繼續下去,我們在收購方面不會有太大的運氣。”

Munger says unchecked federal spending will ‘end in disaster’

芒格説,不加控制的聯邦支出將以災難告終

"The Modern Monetary Theorists are more confident than they ought to be, too. I don’t think any of us know what’s going to happen with this stuff," Munger said. "I do think there’s a good chance that this extreme conduct is more feasible than everybody thought. But I do know that if you just keep doing it without any limit it will end in disaster."

芒格説:“現代貨幣理論家也比他們應有的更有信心。我認為我們中沒有人知道這些東西會發生什麼。”“我確實認為,這種極端行為很有可能比所有人想象的更可行。但我知道,如果你繼續這樣做,沒有任何限制,它將以災難告終。”

"Bernie Sanders has basically won": Munger

“伯尼·桑德斯基本上贏了”:芒格

"I think one consequence of this present situation is, Bernie Sanders has basically won," Munger says. "Because with everything boomed out so high and interest rates so low, what's going to happen is, the millennial generation is going to have a hell of a time getting rich compared to our generation ... He did it by accident, but he won."

芒格説:“我認為目前這種情況的一個後果是,伯尼·桑德斯基本上贏了。”“因為所有的東西都這麼高,利率這麼低,接下來會發生的是,與我們這一代人相比,千禧一代將經歷一段地獄般的致富時期……他的致富是偶然的,但他贏了。”

"The people who are criticizing it are bonkers," Munger says of those condemning stock buybacks 

芒格在談到那些譴責股票回購的人時説:“批評它的人都瘋了。”

"You're repurchasing stock. Just a bullet higher, it's deeply immoral," Munger said. "But if you're repurchasing stock because it's a fair thing to do in the interest of your existing shareholders, it's a highly moral act and the people who are criticizing it are bonkers." 

芒格説:“你在回購股票。只要再高一顆子彈,這就是非常不道德的。”“但如果你因為符合現有股東的利益而回購股票,這是一種高度道德的行為,批評它的人都瘋了。”

Bitcoin is "contrary to the interest of civilization": Munger

比特幣與文明的利益背道而馳:芒格

Warren Buffett declined to directly offer an opinion in response to a question on bitcoin.

在回答有關比特幣的問題時,沃倫·巴菲特拒絕直接發表意見。

Munger, however, issued a more direct attack. 

然而,芒格發出了更直接的攻擊。

"Those who know me well are just waving the red flag at the bull. Of course, I hate the bitcoin success," he said. "And I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful kidnappers and extortionists and so forth. Nor do I like shoveling out a few extra billions and billions and billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air. So I think I should say modestly that the whole damn development is disgusting and contrary to the interest of civilization." 

“那些瞭解我的人只是在向公牛揮舞紅旗。當然,我討厭比特幣的成功,”他説。“我不歡迎一種如此有用的貨幣,綁架者和敲詐勒索者等等。我也不喜歡向一個憑空發明了一種新金融產品的人多花幾十億美元。所以我想我應該謙虛地説,整個該死的發展是令人厭惡的,違背了文明的利益。”

"We're seeing substantial inflation," Buffett says 

巴菲特説:“我們看到了相當大的通貨膨脹。”

"We're seeing substantial inflation. We're raising prices, people are raising prices to us. And it's being accepted," Buffett said. "We really do a lot of housing. The costs are just up, up, up. Steel costs. You know, just every day they're going up."

“我們看到了嚴重的通貨膨脹。我們在漲價,人們也在給我們漲價。這一點正在被接受,”巴菲特説。我們真的做了很多住房。成本就是漲,漲,漲。鋼材成本。你知道,就是每天都在上漲。

"It's an economy – really, it's red hot. And we weren't expecting it," he added. 

“這是一個經濟--真的,非常熱。我們沒有預料到這一點,”他補充道。

What’s the biggest lesson you’ve learned during the past year?

在過去的一年裏,你學到的最大的教訓是什麼?

"My biggest lesson has been to listen more to Charlie," Buffett says.
"We're in sort of uncharted territory," Munger says.
"We enjoy, in a crazy way, actually seeing what happens," Buffett adds.

“我最大的教訓就是多聽查理的話,”巴菲特説。
芒格説:“我們處在一種未知的領域。”
巴菲特補充道:“我們以一種瘋狂的方式享受實際看到發生的事情。”

Shareholder meeting ends, Buffett looks forward to 2022 event in Omaha

股東大會結束,巴菲特期待2022年奧馬哈活動

"I really hope, and I think the odds are very, very good, that we get to hold this next year in Omaha. I hope that we get a record turnout of Berkshire shareholders, and we really look forward to meeting you in Omaha." 

我真的希望,我認為可能性非常非常大,我們明年能在奧馬哈舉行這次會議。我希望我們能有創紀錄的伯克希爾股東出席,我們真的很期待在奧馬哈與你們見面。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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