Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
DJ Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
看好DJ的Coinbase分析師對2022年有一些壞消息--Barrons.com
By Avi Salzman
阿維·薩爾茲曼(Avi Salzman)著
An analyst has weighed in on Coinbase Global ahead of its direct public listing on Wednesday, and she's bullish.
一位分析師在Coinbase Global週三直接公開上市之前對其進行了分析，她對此持樂觀態度。
But her report also makes a projection that might unsettle some Bitcoin bulls: Next year could bring a new Bitcoin winter when the value of digital coins fall sharply.
但她的報告也做出了一個可能會讓一些看漲比特幣的人感到不安的預測：明年可能會迎來新的比特幣冬天，屆時數字硬幣的價值將大幅下跌。
MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis initiated coverage of Coinbase with a Buy rating and a $600 one-year price target -- equating to a market cap of $123 billion. She values the company based on expected revenue, giving it a multiple of 18 times 2023 sales. That's not very far off from Square (ticker: SQ), which she calculates trades at 14 times 2022 sales and at 11 times 2023 sales.
MoffettNathanson分析師麗莎·埃利斯(Lisa Ellis)以買入評級和600美元的一年目標價對Coinbase進行了報道--相當於1230億美元的市值。她根據預期收入對該公司進行估值，使其2023年銷售額的倍數達到18倍。這與Square(股票代碼：SQ)相距不遠，根據她的計算，Square是2022年銷售額的14倍，是2023年銷售額的11倍。
A reference price for Coinbase's direct listing was set at $250 on Tuesday evening, which would indicate a market cap of $65.3 billion.
週二晚間，Coinbase直接上市的參考價定為250美元，這意味着其市值為653億美元。
Ellis notes, however, that Coinbase's revenue is closely tied to the overall size of the cryptocurrency market and retail enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. And she expects that market to continue to swing wildly.
然而，埃利斯指出，Coinbase的收入與加密貨幣市場的整體規模和散户對加密貨幣的熱情密切相關。她預計，這個市場將繼續劇烈波動。
Indeed, "it is quite likely that we are currently nearing a peak -- at $1.8 billion, Coinbase's revenues in the first quarter were 40% higher than all of 2020 ($1.3 billion)," she wrote. "To be prudent, we are assuming that the value of cryptocurrencies will continue to be cyclical, so we are assuming Coinbase's 2022 revenues will be more than 35% lower than 2021."
事實上，她寫道：“我們很有可能正在接近頂峯--第一季度Coinbase的營收為18億美元，比2020年全年(13億美元)高出40%。”“為謹慎起見，我們假設加密貨幣的價值將繼續呈現週期性，因此我們假設Coinbase 2022年的營收將比2021年低35%以上。”
Such a sharp drop in revenue is rare for a fast-growing company, but it only serves to highlight how much Coinbase is dependent on the growth of the broader market. On Tuesday, Bitcoin hit a new high above $63,000.
如此大幅的營收下滑對於一家快速增長的公司來説是罕見的，但這隻會突顯Coinbase在多大程度上依賴於更廣泛市場的增長。週二，比特幣創下6.3萬美元以上的新高。
Coinbase investors might look to the exits if the crypto market struggles. "At this point, we don't know how well the equity markets will stomach this level of volatility in Coinbase's performance," she wrote.
如果密碼市場陷入困境，Coinbase投資者可能會考慮退出。她寫道：“在這一點上，我們不知道股市能在多大程度上承受Coinbase業績的這種波動。”
Ellis estimates that the total value of the crypto market will fall to $1.38 trillion in 2022, implying a 30% drop from current levels. Ellis did not respond to an email asking what her private targets might be for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
埃利斯估計，到2022年，密碼市場的總價值將降至1.38萬億美元，這意味着將比目前水平下降30%。埃利斯沒有回覆一封電子郵件，詢問她的比特幣和以太的私人目標可能是什麼。
The drop in crypto market will be short-lived, however, with the market cap more than doubling the following year to $3.65 trillion, she projects. And by 2026, Ellis expects the market cap to expand to $11 trillion.
然而，她預計，密碼市場的下跌將是短暫的，第二年市值將翻一番以上，達到3.65萬億美元。埃利斯預計，到2026年，市值將擴大到11萬億美元。
"This outlook for an approximately 36% through-cycle compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrywide crypto trading volumes is the primary driver of our Coinbase forecast," she wrote. Ellis expects Coinbase will grow its assets under management about in line with the broader crypto market.
她寫道：“整個行業密碼交易量的整個週期複合年增長率(CAGR)約為36%的前景是我們Coinbase預測的主要驅動力。”埃利斯預計，Coinbase管理的資產將與更廣泛的密碼市場保持一致。
Write to avi.salzman@barrons.com
寫信給avi.salzman@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊通訊社
April 13, 2021 17:18 ET (21:18 GMT)
2021年4月13日美國東部時間17：18(格林尼治標準時間21：18)
DJ Bullish Coinbase Analyst Has Some Bad News About 2022 -- Barrons.com
看好DJ的Coinbase分析師對2022年有一些壞消息--Barrons.com
By Avi Salzman
阿維·薩爾茲曼(Avi Salzman)著
An analyst has weighed in on Coinbase Global ahead of its direct public listing on Wednesday, and she's bullish.
一位分析師在Coinbase Global週三直接公開上市之前對其進行了分析，她對此持樂觀態度。
But her report also makes a projection that might unsettle some Bitcoin bulls: Next year could bring a new Bitcoin winter when the value of digital coins fall sharply.
但她的報告也做出了一個可能會讓一些看漲比特幣的人感到不安的預測：明年可能會迎來新的比特幣冬天，屆時數字硬幣的價值將大幅下跌。
MoffettNathanson analyst Lisa Ellis initiated coverage of Coinbase with a Buy rating and a $600 one-year price target -- equating to a market cap of $123 billion. She values the company based on expected revenue, giving it a multiple of 18 times 2023 sales. That's not very far off from Square (ticker: SQ), which she calculates trades at 14 times 2022 sales and at 11 times 2023 sales.
MoffettNathanson分析師麗莎·埃利斯(Lisa Ellis)以買入評級和600美元的一年目標價對Coinbase進行了報道--相當於1230億美元的市值。她根據預期收入對該公司進行估值，使其2023年銷售額的倍數達到18倍。這與Square(股票代碼：SQ)相距不遠，根據她的計算，Square是2022年銷售額的14倍，是2023年銷售額的11倍。
Ellis notes, however, that Coinbase's revenue is closely tied to the overall size of the cryptocurrency market and retail enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. And she expects that market to continue to swing wildly.
然而，埃利斯指出，Coinbase的收入與加密貨幣市場的整體規模和散户對加密貨幣的熱情密切相關。她預計，這個市場將繼續劇烈波動。
Indeed, "it is quite likely that we are currently nearing a peak -- at $1.8 billion, Coinbase's revenues in the first quarter were 40% higher than all of 2020 ($1.3 billion)," she wrote. "To be prudent, we are assuming that the value of cryptocurrencies will continue to be cyclical, so we are assuming Coinbase's 2022 revenues will be more than 35% lower than 2021."
事實上，她寫道：“我們很有可能正在接近頂峯--第一季度Coinbase的營收為18億美元，比2020年全年(13億美元)高出40%。”“為謹慎起見，我們假設加密貨幣的價值將繼續呈現週期性，因此我們假設Coinbase 2022年的營收將比2021年低35%以上。”
Such a sharp drop in revenue is rare for a fast-growing company, but it only serves to highlight how much Coinbase is dependent on the growth of the broader market. On Tuesday, Bitcoin hit a new high above $63,000.
如此大幅的營收下滑對於一家快速增長的公司來説是罕見的，但這隻會突顯Coinbase在多大程度上依賴於更廣泛市場的增長。週二，比特幣創下6.3萬美元以上的新高。
Coinbase investors might look to the exits if the crypto market struggles. "At this point, we don't know how well the equity markets will stomach this level of volatility in Coinbase's performance," she wrote.
如果密碼市場陷入困境，Coinbase投資者可能會考慮退出。她寫道：“在這一點上，我們不知道股市能在多大程度上承受Coinbase業績的這種波動。”
Ellis estimates that the total value of the crypto market will fall to $1.38 trillion in 2022, implying a 30% drop from current levels. Ellis did not respond to an email asking what her private targets might be for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
埃利斯估計，到2022年，密碼市場的總價值將降至1.38萬億美元，這意味着將比目前水平下降30%。埃利斯沒有回覆一封電子郵件，詢問她的比特幣和以太的私人目標可能是什麼。
The drop in crypto market will be short-lived, however, with the market cap more than doubling the following year to $3.65 trillion, she projects. And by 2026, Ellis expects the market cap to expand to $11 trillion.
然而，她預計，密碼市場的下跌將是短暫的，第二年市值將翻一番以上，達到3.65萬億美元。埃利斯預計，到2026年，市值將擴大到11萬億美元。
"This outlook for an approximately 36% through-cycle compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrywide crypto trading volumes is the primary driver of our Coinbase forecast," she wrote. Ellis expects Coinbase will grow its assets under management about in line with the broader crypto market.
她寫道：“整個行業密碼交易量的整個週期複合年增長率(CAGR)約為36%的前景是我們Coinbase預測的主要驅動力。”埃利斯預計，Coinbase管理的資產將與更廣泛的密碼市場保持一致。
Write to avi.salzman@barrons.com
寫信給avi.salzman@Barrons.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
(完)道瓊通訊社
April 13, 2021 20:04 ET (00:04 GMT)
2021年4月13日美國東部時間20：04(格林尼治標準時間00：04)
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