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Option Montage: There's still a drawdown risk across the board

Option Montage: There's still a drawdown risk across the board

期權蒙太奇:仍存在全面縮水風險
Moomoo News ·  2021/03/04 05:27  · 獨家

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By Eli, Rachel

作者:伊萊,雷切爾

Same old story out there on Wednesday, buy re-opening, sell high growth/tech. Institutional sweepers continue to plow into inflation/reflation leaders, while the bulk of the put buying remains focused on ETFs and growth. 

週三,同樣的老生常談,買入重新開盤,賣出高增長/科技股。機構投資者繼續買入通脹/通貨再膨脹領頭羊,而看跌期權的大部分買入仍聚焦於ETF和增長。

$United Airlines Holdings Inc(UAL.US)$, $Las Vegas Sands Corp(LVS.US)$, $Boeing Co(BA.US)$, $Exxon Mobil Corp(XOM.US)$, $ONEOK Inc(OKE.US)$, financials and travel leaders have been absolutely tattooed over the past couple of weeks. 

On the sentiment front

在情緒方面

Recent volatility hasn't had a noteworthy impact on intermediate-term sentiment yet but the selling has been in just half of the market so far. 

近期的波動尚未對中期市場人氣產生明顯影響,但到目前為止,拋售僅佔市場的一半。

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Hedge Fund Exposure source: sentimentrader

對衝基金曝險來源:SentimenTrader

Hedge funds spit up a bit, trimming some of their recent long exposure after getting a bit more aggressive buying into this recent dip. 

對衝基金略微增加了一些,在最近的下跌中進行了更積極的買入後,削減了一些最近的多頭敞口。

Institutions are still primarily focused on this "re-opening" theme but continue to plow into the leaders for the most part. There has been some recent activity in underbelly commodity plays like $Teck Resources Ltd(TECK.US)$ and $Amyris Inc(AMRS.US)$ yesterday but we haven't seen many fresh names, the most aggressive aspect of the flow has been in the more well-known cyclical plays. 

金融機構仍主要關注這一“重新開放”的主題,但在很大程度上仍在繼續向領導人發起攻勢。最近,大宗商品領域出現了一些活躍的現象,比如$Teck Resources Ltd(TECK.US)$$Amyris Inc.(AMRS.US)$但我們昨天沒有看到很多新名字,最具侵略性的方面是在更知名的週期性比賽中。

That will change, eventually, there's still a potential drawdown risk across the board here because the more they hammer growth, the higher the odds they'll need to sell winners as well to meet margin calls. Our best entry for swing positions will likely come off the selling where everything is highly correlated. In other words, when everything finally pulls back together with the indices and there's nowhere to hide, this phase can come to an end. 

這種情況將會改變,最終,這裏仍然存在潛在的全面縮水風險,因為他們越猛烈地打擊增長,他們需要出售贏家以滿足追加保證金要求的機率就越高。我們最好的搖擺頭寸可能會從拋售中脱手,因為一切都高度相關。換句話説,當一切最終與指數一起拉回到一起,沒有地方可藏時,這個階段就可以結束了。

But when will that come? NO CLUE, for now, a tactical strategy remains the way to go, they are not really showing much excitement in growth yet, selectively dabbling for just a bounce. 

但那會在什麼時候到來呢?沒有線索,就目前而言,戰術戰略仍然是前進的方向,他們還沒有真正表現出對增長的興奮,有選擇地涉足僅僅是反彈。

Notable bettings toward broader market indices ETF on 3/3

3/3對大盤指數ETF的值得注意的押注

Market-wide option volume of 43.3m contracts was in line with recent average levels, with calls leading puts 13 to 8. ETF and single stock products saw relatively heavy volume, while index flow was moderate. 

全市場的期權成交量為4330萬份,與近期的平均水平一致,看跌期權的數量為13份至8份。ETF和單一股票產品的成交量相對較大,而指數成交量不大。

Individuals breakdown by sectors (3/3 notable bets)

按行業細分的個人(3/3值得注意的賭注)

Most active sectors included Financials, Industrials and Consumer Cyclicals while Health Care and Utilities were relatively light. Of the 3,814 stocks with listed options, 1,596 (42%) closed higher, and 2,124 (56%) lower. Among the 500 most liquid single stocks, 30day implied volatility was higher for 333 and lower for 107. Unusual total option volume was observed in $Bank of America Corporation(BAC.US)$, $Rocket Companies Inc(RKT.US)$, $SOS Ltd(SOS.US)$$UWM HLDGS CORP(UWMC.US)$ and $Boeing Co(BA.US)$.

最活躍的板塊包括金融、工業和消費週期類股,而醫療保健和公用事業板塊相對較少。在3,814只有期權上市的股票中,1,596只(42%)收盤上漲,2,124只(56%)下跌。在流動性最強的500只單一股票中,30天隱含波動率較高的有333只,較低的有107只。觀察到異常的期權總成交量$美國銀行(美國銀行)$, $Rocket Companies Inc.(RKT.US)$, $SOS有限公司(SOS.US)$, $UWM Hldgs Corp(UWMC.US)$$波音(BA.US)$.

Tech

高科技

Industrial

工業

Consumer Cyclical

消費週期

Financial

金融

Communication Services

通信服務

Healthcare

醫療保健

Energy

能量

Real Estate

房地產

Basic materials

基礎材料

Consumer Defensive

消費者防禦性

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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