The Zhitong Finance App learned that on May 21, Eli Lilai Mu Fengda (terpotide injection) was approved by the National Drug Administration (NMPA) to improve blood sugar control in adult type 2 diabetics. It is worth mentioning that tirbotide is the world's first and currently the only GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist. On May 21, local time, the US stock LLY.US (LLY.US) closed up 2.55%. The stock price reached a record high, and the total market value reached 763.337 billion US dollars.

According to information, tirpotide is a GIPR and GLP-1R agonist injected once a week. GLP-1 and GIP are two types of natural intestinal insulin. Studies have shown that GIP can reduce food intake and increase energy consumption, thereby reducing weight. When GIP is used in combination with GLP-1 receptor agonists, it may have a greater effect on patients' blood sugar and body weight.

It is worth noting that tirpotide is superior to simeglutide, known as the “magic drug for weight loss,” in terms of weight loss, especially in overweight patients with diabetes. Relevant research data showed that subjects with Mu Fengda 5 mg and 10 mg lost an average weight of 7.8 kg and 10.3 kg, while the smeglutide 1 mg group lost an average of 6.2 kg. At the same time, tirpotide is also lower than simeglutide in terms of pricing, making it the preferred drug treatment for obese and overweight people.

Recently, “Weight Loss Duo” announced financial results for the first quarter, and the two leading companies continued to attract global money. Among them, Eli Lilly's total global revenue for the first quarter was US$8.768 billion, up 26% year on year; Novo Nordisk's total revenue for the first quarter was approximately RMB 68 billion, and operating profit was approximately RMB 33.2 billion, up 22% and 27%, respectively.

Currently, many domestic pharmaceutical companies such as Cinda Biotech, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, Livingzhu Group, and Huadong Pharmaceutical are already developing the generic drug market for simeglutide. Among GLP-1 products approved in China, Renhui Biotech's benaglutide and Huadong Pharmaceutical's liraglutide biosimilar have also been approved for the treatment of obesity in addition to diabetes treatment.

In terms of research and development, domestic GLP-1/GIP dual-target agonists such as Hengrui Pharmaceutical HRS9531 have advanced to clinical phase III, Borui Pharmaceutical BGM0504, Jiangsu Hausen Pharmaceutical HS-20094, and Zhongsheng Ruichuang RAY 1225, a subsidiary of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, have all advanced to clinical phase II.

Insight Consulting's “GLP-1 Industry Blue Book” mentions that in 2022, the global GLP-1 market is about US$19.85 billion, and is expected to grow rapidly to US$55.2 billion in 2030, accounting for 57% of the global diabetes drug market. The China Merchants Securities Research Report mentioned that the market prospects for GLP-1 drugs in the field of metabolism are broad. It is estimated that by 2030, the market size for type 2 diabetes and obesity will exceed the 100 billion US dollar mark.

Guohai Securities believes that the Blue Ocean market for weight loss drugs is vast. With Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly's trend in the development of GLP-1 targeted weight loss drugs, the weight loss drug industry ushered in a period of breakthrough achievements. Optimistic about investment opportunities brought about by the dual trend of “R&D breakthroughs and approval for marketing+consumer commercialization” of weight loss drugs, it is recommended to focus on relevant targets where weight loss drug research and development is progressing rapidly, while also focusing on related targets such as formulations, APIs, CDMO, and drug delivery devices in the industrial chain.

Related concept stocks:

Cinda Biotech (01801): In early February, Cinda Biotech announced that the marketing application for the first new drug for weight loss was officially accepted by the China Drug Administration for long-term weight control in adult obese or overweight patients.

Fosun Pharmaceutical (02196): Fosun Pharmaceutical stated on an interactive platform that the company is currently developing liraglutide (intended for use in diabetes and obesity) in China, respectively, in phase III clinical trials.

Federal Pharmaceuticals (03933): Sino-Thai International previously stated that the company's management indicated that the first GLP-1 agonist, liraglutide, has submitted a marketing application and is expected to be approved for listing within 2024. Furthermore, according to current progress, the company expects the long-acting insulin Tokugu Insulin to be approved for marketing in 2025. According to the bank, the company is one of the first listed companies in Hong Kong to be approved for clinical trials with simeglutide. Since simeglutide has excellent effects in reducing sugar and weight loss, it will receive financial attention if future clinical data is good.

East China Pharmaceutical (000963.SZ): For GLP-1 targets, the company has established 8 products covering oral and injectable dosage forms, including long-acting and multi-target global innovative drugs and biosimilar drugs, involving indications such as weight loss, NASH, fat loss, CKD, etc., and is one of the pharmaceutical companies with the most comprehensive layout of GLP-1 targets in China.