share_log

How To Trade The Ethereum ETF Approval? 'Lot Of Room To Surprise To The Upside,' Trader Points Out

How To Trade The Ethereum ETF Approval? 'Lot Of Room To Surprise To The Upside,' Trader Points Out

如何交易以太坊ETF批准?交易員指出:“上行空間很大”
Benzinga ·  05/22 10:09

Amid all the hype surrounding Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) ETF approval, pseudonymous crypto trader Evanss6 lays out the knowns and unknowns for the ETH ETF trade, pointing to the election as an important factor.

在圍繞以太坊(加密貨幣:ETH)ETF批准的所有炒作中,化名加密貨幣交易員Evanss6列出了以太坊ETF交易的已知和未知數,指出選舉是一個重要因素。

What Happened: Among known factors, Evanss6 suggests that the approval "seems to be the case," albeit not guaranteed. He also expects a marketing push but notes that initially there will be no staking options, making the product slightly less attractive to TradFi investors who enjoy yields.

發生了什麼:在已知因素中,Evanss6表示,儘管不能保證,但批准 “似乎是這樣”。他還預計會有市場推動,但他指出,最初將沒有質押選項,這使得該產品對享受收益的TradFi投資者的吸引力略低。

The ETH ETF trade: how I'm thinking about this
There are several key pieces in this trade, some known and some unknown. So will lay some out:
Known(ish):
-It will be approved soon (okay this is not a lock but seems to be the case)
-Grayscale's ETHE has close to 3MM ETH (2.5% of...

— Evanss6 (@Evan_ss6) May 21, 2024

ETH ETF 交易:我對此有何看法
這筆交易有幾個關鍵部分,有些是已知的,有些是未知的。因此,將列出一些內容:
已知(ish):
-很快就會獲得批准(好吧,這不是鎖,但似乎是這樣)
-Grayscale 的 ETHE 擁有近 300 萬個 ETH(佔總數的 2.5%)

— Evanss6 (@Evan_ss6) 2024 年 5 月 21 日

He highlights Grayscale's Ethereum holdings, which contain close to 3 million ETH (2.5% of the float), preparing for a scenario where trapped investors might exit without a discount to net asset value.

他重點介紹了Grayscale持有的以太坊,其中包含近300萬以太幣(佔浮動量的2.5%),爲陷入困境的投資者可能在不打折淨資產價值的情況下退出的情景做準備。

Among unknown factors, the trader notes the exact timeline for the ETF launch, and the state of the macro environment at that time, which will impact the ETF significantly. He also speculates on the level of inflows and broader market conditions but remains cautious about political influence, which he deems overblown.

在未知因素中,交易員指出了ETF推出的確切時間表以及當時的宏觀環境狀況,這將對ETF產生重大影響。他還推測資金流入水平和更廣泛的市場狀況,但對政治影響力仍持謹慎態度,他認爲這種影響被誇大了。

Benzinga Future of Digital Assets conference

Also Read: Spot Ethereum ETF Approval 'Not Even Remotely Priced In,' Warns Trader Who Sees 'Ethereum Overperforming From US Elections Onwards'

另請閱讀:交易員警告說,現貨以太坊ETF的批准 “甚至沒有遠程定價”,他們認爲 “從美國大選開始以太坊表現不佳”

Why It Matters: While Evanss6 draws parallels to the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) spot ETF approval process and the underlying asset's reaction performance, he also sees a similar trajectory of a rally, a steep dip and a robust recovery in Ethereum. However, he considers some variables to be different, such as the lower percentage of Ethereum held by Grayscale and initial pricing expectations.

爲何重要:儘管Evanss6與比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC)現貨ETF的批准程序和標的資產的反應表現相似,但他也認爲以太坊也有類似的反彈、急劇下跌和強勁復甦的軌跡。但是,他認爲某些變量有所不同,例如Grayscale持有的以太坊的較低百分比以及初始定價預期。

As crucial factors he adds the extent to which issuers market the product, whether major financial institutions like Vanguard support it and how market dynamics evolve.

作爲關鍵因素,他補充了發行人推銷該產品的程度、像Vanguard這樣的主要金融機構是否支持該產品以及市場動態是如何演變的。

In conclusion, the trader notes that conservative expectations for Ethereum ETF inflows, which "leaves a lot of room to surprise to the upside." However, he cautions against treating recent market data from international exchanges as definitive indicators.

總之,該交易員指出,對以太坊ETF流入的保守預期,“還有很大的上行空間”。但是,他告誡不要將來自國際交易所的最新市場數據視爲明確的指標。

Overall, Evanss6's comprehensive breakdown indicates that understanding the nuanced market structure and sentiment will be critical whether the ETF launch happens in a bullish or bearish macro environment.

總體而言,Evanss6的全面細分表明,無論ETF的推出是在看漲還是看跌的宏觀環境中,了解細微的市場結構和情緒都至關重要。

What's Next: The influence of Ethereum as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

下一步是什麼:預計將在11月19日舉行的Benzinga即將舉行的數字資產未來活動上全面探討以太坊作爲機構資產類別的影響力。

This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

該內容部分是在人工智能工具的幫助下製作的,並由Benzinga編輯審查和發佈。

Image: Shutterstock

圖片:Shutterstock

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論