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These 4 Measures Indicate That Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Is Using Debt Safely

These 4 Measures Indicate That Nongfu Spring (HKG:9633) Is Using Debt Safely

這4項措施表明農夫山泉(HKG: 9633)正在安全地使用債務
Simply Wall St ·  05/21 02:48

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. (HKG:9633) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”因此,很明顯,當你考慮任何給定股票的風險時,你需要考慮債務,因爲過多的債務會使公司陷入困境。我們注意到,農夫山泉有限公司(HKG: 9633)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

當企業無法輕易履行這些義務時,無論是通過自由現金流還是以誘人的價格籌集資金,債務和其他負債就會面臨風險。資本主義的重要部分是 “創造性破壞” 的過程,在這個過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務可能是企業的重要工具,尤其是資本密集型企業。當我們考慮公司對債務的使用時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務。

What Is Nongfu Spring's Debt?

什麼是農夫山泉的債務?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Nongfu Spring had CN¥3.12b of debt, an increase on CN¥2.43b, over one year. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥24.2b in cash, so it actually has CN¥21.1b net cash.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2023年12月,農夫山泉在一年內有31.2億元人民幣的債務,比24.3億元人民幣有所增加。但是,其資產負債表顯示其持有242億元人民幣的現金,因此實際上擁有211億元人民幣的淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:9633 Debt to Equity History May 21st 2024
SEHK: 9633 2024 年 5 月 21 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

How Healthy Is Nongfu Spring's Balance Sheet?

農夫山泉的資產負債表有多健康?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Nongfu Spring had liabilities of CN¥19.9b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥689.7m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥24.2b as well as receivables valued at CN¥670.9m due within 12 months. So it actually has CN¥4.34b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

放大最新的資產負債表數據,我們可以看到,農夫山泉的負債爲199億元人民幣,12個月內到期,負債爲6.897億元人民幣。除了這些債務外,它還有242億元人民幣的現金以及價值6.709億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有434億元人民幣 更多 流動資產超過總負債。

This state of affairs indicates that Nongfu Spring's balance sheet looks quite solid, as its total liabilities are just about equal to its liquid assets. So while it's hard to imagine that the CN¥486.5b company is struggling for cash, we still think it's worth monitoring its balance sheet. Simply put, the fact that Nongfu Spring has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

這種狀況表明,農夫山泉的資產負債表看起來相當穩健,因爲其總負債幾乎等於其流動資產。因此,儘管很難想象這家4865億元人民幣的公司正在爲現金而苦苦掙扎,但我們仍然認爲值得監控其資產負債表。簡而言之,農夫山泉的現金多於債務這一事實可以說是一個很好的跡象,表明它可以安全地管理債務。

On top of that, Nongfu Spring grew its EBIT by 48% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Nongfu Spring can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

最重要的是,農夫山泉在過去十二個月中將其息稅前利潤增長了48%,這種增長將使其更容易處理債務。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定農夫山泉能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Nongfu Spring may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Over the last three years, Nongfu Spring recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 91% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。農夫山泉資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但研究該企業將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的效果仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。在過去的三年中,農夫山泉錄得的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的91%,比我們通常預期的要強。這使其在償還債務方面處於非常有利的地位。

Summing Up

總結

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Nongfu Spring has CN¥21.1b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. The cherry on top was that in converted 91% of that EBIT to free cash flow, bringing in CN¥13b. So is Nongfu Spring's debt a risk? It doesn't seem so to us. Another factor that would give us confidence in Nongfu Spring would be if insiders have been buying shares: if you're conscious of that signal too, you can find out instantly by clicking this link.

儘管調查公司的債務始終是明智之舉,但在這種情況下,農夫山泉的淨現金爲211億元人民幣,資產負債表看起來不錯。最重要的是,它將息稅前利潤的91%轉換爲自由現金流,帶來了130億元人民幣的收入。那麼農夫山泉的債務有風險嗎?在我們看來,情況並非如此。另一個讓我們對農夫山泉充滿信心的因素是內部人士是否一直在買入股票:如果你也意識到這個信號,你可以通過點擊這個鏈接立即找到答案。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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