CICC released a research report saying that under the current policy enforcement direction, the visibility of the physical market's volume and price stabilization and structural recovery has increased for a year or more. Although the stock price reaction may be ahead of the physical market recovery, it is expected to provide a layout window if phased profits are settled. Comprehensive corporate fundamentals and financial and valuation indicators, CICC suggests focusing on CNOOC Properties (02669), Wanwuyun (02602), Sunac Services (01516), Greentown Services (02869), Poly Property (06049), and China Resources Vientiane Life (01209). It also recommends Dajiejiantou Greentown Management Holdings (09979) to maintain the same ratings and target prices for property management stocks.
CICC expects the profit growth rate of property management stocks to reach roughly 10 to 20% this year. The real estate industry's potential volume and price recovery will increase the certainty of delivery, but implied flexibility is relatively limited. The average revenue growth rate for core coverage targets this year is 13%, and the average growth rate of net profit and core net profit is 15%. Among them, basic property management revenue increased by an average of 16%, developers' value-added business fell 10% year on year, and owners' value-added business increased 13% year on year. The net profit margin was roughly flat under the influence of changes in revenue structure and management efficiency.
The bank believes that the property management sector is in a phase of gradual transformation from growth to value. The mainstream pricing method is still price-earnings ratio. Compared with the industry's business model, corporate growth prospects and dividend repurchase intentions, it is believed that the middle double digit is close to the middle double digit or the real estate industry stabilizes in a phased and reasonable pricing direction; if market sentiment improves further, it may switch valuations or include the value of cash on book in valuation considerations when the growth prospects for the next year are more clear.