Nvidia's New Blackwell GPUs Expected To Boost Future Revenues, KeyBanc Forecasts
Nvidia's New Blackwell GPUs Expected To Boost Future Revenues, KeyBanc Forecasts
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh maintained an Overweight rating on $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ with a price target of $1,200.
KeyBanc分析師約翰·榮維持增持評級 $英偉達 (NVDA.US)$ 目標股價爲1200美元。
Despite anticipating next-generation Blackwell GPUs in the second half, Vinh noted limited signs of a demand pause and expects Nvidia to report fiscal first-quarter results and second-quarter guidance meaningfully above expectations.
儘管預計下半年將推出下一代Blackwell GPU，但Vinh注意到需求暫停的跡象有限，並預計英偉達公佈的第一財季業績和第二季度指引將明顯超出預期。
The analyst expects an upside driven by improving the supply of H100 GPUs, as lead times have largely normalized, China's demand for H20 GPUs, and the initial ramp of H200 GPUs, which should mitigate a pause in H100 demand. He expects China to contribute $9 billion to $12 billion in calendar year 2024.
該分析師預計，H100 GPU供應的改善將推動上行空間，因爲交貨時間已基本恢復正常，中國對H20 GPU的需求以及H200 GPU的初步增長，這將緩解上半年需求的暫停。他預計，中國將在2024日曆年貢獻90億至120億美元。
Vinh expects GB200 and Blackwell to drive over $200 billion in DC revenue in 2025. B100 (a drop-in replacement for H100) and B200 will likely begin ramping from the third quarter and account for most GPU volume in the fourth quarter, with ASPs about 40%+ higher than Hopper.
Vinh 預計，到 2025 年，GB200 和 Blackwell 將爲華盛頓特區帶來超過 2000 億美元的收入。B100（H100的直接替代品）和B200可能會從第三季度開始增加，佔第四季度GPU銷量的大部分，ASP比Hopper高出約40％以上。
Coupled with H200 ramps, Vinh expects a smooth transition between Hopper and Blackwell, with both product families ramping into the calendar year 2025. Furthermore, the analyst noted GB200 (GPU+CPU solution) becoming the mainstream Blackwell configuration due to its meaningfully lower TCO, driven by the MGX server rack standard adoption, with backlogs across all major hyperscalers and a demand of 60K – 70K, with an ASP of $1.5million – $2 million, and higher ASP for 72x GPUs.
再加上H200的上市，Vinh預計Hopper和Blackwell之間將平穩過渡，這兩個產品系列都將延續到2025日曆年。此外，該分析師指出，GB200（GPU+CPU解決方案）成爲布萊克韋爾的主流配置，這是因爲在採用MGX服務器機架標準的推動下，其總體擁有成本顯著降低，所有主要超大規模供應商都有積壓，需求爲6萬至7萬英鎊，ASP爲150萬至200萬美元，72倍GPU的ASP更高。
Vinh estimates this alone would represent up to $140 billion+ revenue opportunity. In conjunction with HGX AI servers and networking, he estimates total data center revenue could contribute over $200 billion in 2025.
Vinh估計，僅此一項就將帶來高達1400億美元以上的收入機會。他估計，再加上HGX AI服務器和網絡，到2025年，數據中心總收入可能超過2000億美元。
Vinh's first-quarter revenue and EPS estimates are $25.6 billion and $5.81, compared to the consensus of $24.6 billion and $5.57. His second-quarter revenue and EPS estimates are $27.8 billion and $6.20, compared to the consensus of $26.6 billion and $5.92.
Vinh第一季度的收入和每股收益估計爲256億美元和5.81美元，而市場普遍預期爲246億美元和5.57美元。他第二季度的收入和每股收益估計爲278億美元和6.20美元，而市場普遍預期爲266億美元和5.92美元。
Vinh projected first-quarter revenue and EPS of $25.57 billion and $5.81.
Vinh預計第一季度收入和每股收益爲255.7億美元和5.81美元。