On May 14, BoaA released a research report, optimistic about FUTU's 1Q24 client growth, and raised the target price from $62.80 to $81.00.
BoaA pointed out the following highlights on FUTU:
BoaA expects strong new paying clients in 1Q24 (BofAe 136k vs Visible Alpha [VA] consensus for 84k), driven by improved sentiment across markets and the strong launch in Malaysia.
BoaA estimates 1Q24 revenue to increase 9% QoQ to HKD2.6bn while GAAP net profit should grow 15% QoQ to HKD1.0bn, largely in line with VA consensus.
BoaA raises 2024-26E earnings by 1-3%, lift their target 2024E P/E multiple from 14.0x to 17.5x on the back of expected robust client growth, China's macro recovery, and improved market sentiments and, accordingly, raise their PO by 29% from USD62.80 to USD81.00. BoaA maintains their Buy rating on Futu given improving market sentiment and encouraging developments in overseas markets and new products.
Key things to watch: 1) 2Q24 operations: Is the recent rebound of HK market and ADRs expected to lead to more active trading? Is Futu's revenue more sensitive to US or HK market? 2) Globalization: What are the growth prospects of new overseas markets? What are the new markets' client profiles? How is the large marketing campaign in Japan going?
Upside risks: better-than-expected capital market condition, lower-than-expected competition and faster-than-expected client growth.
Downside risks: stricter-than-expected regulations, large US/HK market correction and intensified competition.