share_log

Don't Panic Yet! Ahead Of Key April Inflation Data, Economist Points To Charts That Hint At 'Some Good News' — 'Fed Beige Book Nailed This'

Don't Panic Yet! Ahead Of Key April Inflation Data, Economist Points To Charts That Hint At 'Some Good News' — 'Fed Beige Book Nailed This'

暫時不要驚慌!在4月份的關鍵通脹數據公佈之前,經濟學家指出了暗示 “一些好消息” 的圖表—— “聯儲局褐皮書搞定了這一點”
Benzinga ·  05/15 05:03

The producer price inflation report released on Tuesday stirred worries concerning a hot consumer price inflation print, which weighed down on the market in early trading. An economist, however, pointed to a data point that could allay concerns about pricing pressure.

週二發佈的生產者價格通脹報告引發了人們對消費者物價通脹數據火熱的擔憂,該數據在早盤交易中打壓了市場。但是,一位經濟學家指出,一個數據點可以緩解對定價壓力的擔憂。

What Happened: The results of the National Federation of Independent Business's small business survey released Tuesday threw up some encouraging news for Wednesday's CPI print, said David Rosenberg, founder and president at Rosenberg Research & Associates, in a post on X.

發生了什麼:Rosenberg Research & Associates創始人兼總裁戴維·羅森伯格在關於X的文章中說,全國獨立企業聯合會週二發佈的小企業調查結果爲週三的消費者價格指數帶來了一些令人鼓舞的消息。

Sharing two charts on current and future pricing power, the economist said the "downtrend in both is notable." He also said the latest installment of the Fed's Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve districts nailed this.

這位經濟學家分享了兩張關於當前和未來定價能力的圖表,他說:“兩者的下降趨勢都很明顯。”他還說,最新一期的聯儲局褐皮書彙編了12個聯儲局區經濟狀況的傳聞證據,證實了這一點。

Ahead of tomorrow's CPI report, some encouraging news from today's NFIB small biz survey on current pricing and future pricing power. The downtrend in both is notable. The Fed Beige Book nailed this. pic.twitter.com/XwqwWvGskM

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) May 14, 2024

在明天的消費者價格指數報告之前,今天的NFIB小型企業調查中出現了一些令人鼓舞的消息,該調查涉及當前定價和未來定價能力。兩者的下降趨勢都很明顯。聯儲局褐皮書搞定了這一點。pic.twitter.com/xwqwwvgsKM

— 大衛·羅森伯格 (@EconguyRosie) 2024 年 5 月 14 日

Why It's Important: With the Federal Reserve's fixation on bringing inflation below its 2% upper ceiling, incoming data is keenly watched by the Street. Traders are particularly worried about inflation potentially resuming its upward climb and preventing the Fed from reversing its rate hikes.

爲何重要:由於聯儲局致力於將通貨膨脹率降至2%的上限以下,華爾街密切關注即將到來的數據。交易者特別擔心通貨膨脹可能會恢復向上攀升,並阻礙聯儲局扭轉加息的趨勢。

The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 11-12. Between now and then, traders get to digest two CPI inflation reports, one coming just ahead of the Fed decision on June 12. A personal income and spending report, which comprises the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the annual rate of core price consumption expenditure data, is also due before the next meeting.

下一次聯邦公開市場委員會會議定於6月11日至12日舉行。從現在到那時,交易者需要消化兩份消費者價格指數通脹報告,其中一份是在聯儲局6月12日做出決定之前發佈的。個人收入和支出報告也將在下次會議之前發佈,其中包括聯儲局首選的通貨膨脹指標,即核心價格消費支出數據的年率。

This apart, traders may also look for cues on rate trajectory from the May non-farm payrolls report due in early June.

除此之外,交易者還可能從6月初發布的5月非農就業報告中尋找利率走勢的線索。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday stuck with his rhetoric that inflation has stayed elevated, likely keeping rates on hold for longer. But the market construed it as suggesting a rate cut could come as early as September.

聯儲局主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾週二堅持其言論,即通貨膨脹率一直保持在較高水平,可能會在更長的時間內保持利率不變。但市場將其解釋爲暗示最早可能在9月降息。

The CPI report for April due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT is expected to show a 0.4% month-over-month increase in the headline number, compared with March's 0.3% rise. On an annual basis, however, the consumer price index may have risen 3.4%, lower than the 3.5% gain in the previous month.

美國東部時間週三上午8點30分公佈的4月份消費者價格指數報告預計將顯示總體數據同比增長0.4%,而3月份的漲幅爲0.3%。但是,按年計算,消費者物價指數可能上漲3.4%,低於上個月的3.5%。

The monthly and annual rates of core consumer prices are expected at 0.3% and 3.6%, respectively, versus March's 0.4% and 3.8%.

核心消費者價格的月率和年增長率預計分別爲0.3%和3.6%,而3月份爲0.4%和3.8%。

The iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:TIP), an ETF tracking the investment results of an index composed of inflation-protected U.S. Treasury bonds, ended Wednesday's session up 0.19% at $106.29, according to Benzinga Pro data.

根據Benzinga Pro的數據,追蹤由受通脹保護的美國國債組成的指數的投資業績的交易所買賣基金iShares TIPS債券ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:TIP)週三收盤上漲0.19%,至106.29美元。

Photo via Shutterstock

照片來自 Shutterstock

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
    搶先評論