The Zhitong Finance App learned that on May 13, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Federation, published an article stating that in 2024, the Chinese automobile market is facing a continuous positive basic trend. The automobile market in March was greatly boosted by the launch of commercial vehicles and the end of the quarter. The passenger car market declined significantly due to a wave of price cuts, but the overall performance was still good. Due to strong growth in automobile exports, the recovery of the Chinese automobile market is strong. The pattern of large groups has changed dramatically, with FAW (000800.SZ), Dongfeng (600006.SH), and Changan (000625.SZ) strong trends. As national policy guidelines for the automobile industry increased, automobile consumption was further stabilized and expanded, and the contribution of Spring Festival factors, the car market grew strongly in January-April. Recently, passenger car exports have contributed greatly, and the overall automobile market continues to strengthen, and is expected to reach a record high throughout the year.

1. All car passengers got off to a good start in 2024

The characteristics of passenger and passenger differentiation have been obvious in recent years. This year's market was affected by policies and Spring Festival factors, and the growth rate of passenger cars from January to April was relatively good. The commercial vehicle market only recovered after the Spring Festival. Commercial vehicles were strong in March-April, and the trend was relatively stable in January-April.

2. A good start to the automobile market in 2024

From January to April 2024, the total sales volume of automobiles was 8.966 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%; total automobile sales in April were 2.332,400 units, up 8.6% year on year, down 12.7% from the previous month.

In 2023, the automobile market continued to open low and move high, with significant overdrafts at the end of the year. Sales declined significantly from month to month in February of this year, and rebounded significantly in March. The price war brought about a gradual recovery of the market downturn.

In 2019, total vehicle sales volume was 25.7687 million units, a cumulative decrease of 8.1%; in 2020, total car sales volume was 25.31 million units, a cumulative decrease of 1.9%; total car sales volume in 2021 was 26.27 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.8%, which finally achieved positive growth, higher than 2019 performance; total sales volume of 267.557 million units in 2022, cumulative growth rate of 1.9%; in 2023, total vehicle sales volume was 3.09 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12.4%.

3. Major car enterprise groups all performed well

This chart is a 2021 chart. Due to the low base, the trend in early 2021 showed high growth, mainly the cumulative effect of the low base in 2020. The 2021 chart compares 2019 data.

The trend in the car market was weak in 2021, and the trends of various groups were divided due to the differentiated market demand in the dominant sectors of trucks and passenger cars.

Compared with the 2021 chart above, some car companies performed strongly in 2022, and the growth rate of the industry was seriously divided. The epidemic in early 2022 put a lot of pressure on traditional car companies. In particular, the impact of new energy was compounded by the impact of the epidemic. The performance of large state-owned groups was divided, and GAC and Chery performed well. Among them, Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors performed well. The performance of various companies in the North, such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC, is under pressure.

In early 2023, new energy sources drove the trend of the car market to diverge. The top three central enterprises are generally divided, and some state-owned enterprises are left behind. New energy companies such as BYD have performed very well; Chery and Tesla have performed relatively well this year. The performance of second-tier car companies is divided. Due to the continuous loss pressure of new and old kinetic energy conversion and new energy vehicles, the differentiation of own-brand SMEs is seriously sluggish.

The lineup pattern of the Automobile Group changed completely in 2024. Due to the short time schedule and seasonal sales pace, FAW, Changan and Dongfeng performed well, and SAIC Motor is still in decline. The trend of new energy vehicles between BYD and Tesla is diverging.

The car market was relatively divided in April. Consumption in the car market was strong before the holiday, and various trends diverged after the holiday. In April, some major manufacturers experienced a significant decline compared to the previous month, and BYD was stronger than in March.

4. Production and sales trends of passenger car companies in the narrow sense

In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of manufacturers was narrowly multiplied by total sales volume of 255.323 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4%.

From January to April 2024, the total sales volume was 7.5423 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.3%; in April, the total sales volume of Sanejoki was 1,948,600 units, up 8% year on year, down 11.2% from the previous month.

Major car companies were generally weak in April, and independent car companies declined sharply in April. Geely led in February, and Chery led in April. The joint venture FAW-Volkswagen is stronger.

The main passenger car manufacturers quickly split. Manufacturers that mainly focus on new energy vehicles performed well, and the differentiation in autonomous performance was particularly obvious.

In 2023, the total retail sales volume for the full year of 2023 was 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%; in January-April 2024, the total sales volume was 6.36 million units, up 8% year on year, and 6% year on year in April.

5. Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle companies

Sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 were 6.5 million units, an increase of 96% over the previous year. In 2023, the NEV passenger car market was 8.87 million, and the trend is growing steadily.

Sales growth of 2.74 million from January to April 2024 was good, and manufacturers were more cautious in April.

The trend of new energy passenger vehicles in April generally declined slightly compared to March, but some manufacturers were sluggish year over year due to price wars, and overall NEV market performance was average.

6. Production and sales trends of traditional power passenger car companies

In 2023, sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense of fuel were 16.66 million units, which was basically the same as the same period in 2022; sales of traditional passenger cars in the narrow sense of the word from January to April 2024 were 4.81 million units, an increase of 2% year-on-year over the same period last year, and a year-on-year decrease of 1% year-on-year in April.

The continued decline in conventional passenger cars in the early stages brought significant market pressure. Recently, the trend of traditional cars has picked up relatively, but the price impact of drastic price cuts in new energy will continue to be reflected. It is hoped that traditional cars will also stabilize and resume growth.

The situation where conventional-power passenger car joint ventures are mainly changing. The market for Chery, Changan, Geely, and the top three joint ventures is still strong. FAW-Volkswagen is absolutely leading in joint ventures, yet the advantages of independent brands over joint ventures for fuel vehicles are not obvious, and joint ventures still have a strong fuel vehicle technology heritage.