Jinwu Financial News | According to Tianfeng Securities Research, Ideal Auto (02015) delivered a total of 80,400 units in 24Q1, +53% year over year; ideal delivery volume in April was 25,800 vehicles, +0.4% year over year. Against the backdrop of a slowdown in sales growth in the first quarter, the bank believes that it was more due to off-season demand (beta-level factors), along with policy/preferential subsidies to stimulate demand. May may be the starting point of this year's peak season, thus driving the 789 model sales increase. Ideal is to release the Ideal L6 on April 18. As of May 5, orders will exceed 41,000 units. If the bank previously anticipated that the L6 will be the core main model with the price of ideal products falling and this year's increase, the bank maintains expectations and is optimistic that it will break through new monthly sales of Ideal Bikes in the 25-30w market and maintain a steady monthly sales forecast of 15,000 to 20,000 units.
Recently, Ideal has faced major fluctuations and adjustments. The bank believes that the core reason is that Q1's off-season sales and the new pure electric platform Mega fell short of expectations; the bank judged the market or judged the ideal annual sales volume and profit with excessive pessimism, and the competitive landscape had deteriorated (the ideal market share did not decline significantly). The bank determined that as 2QL6 climbs, the ideal market share is expected to increase further. The bank expects to sell 600,000 to 650,000 vehicles this year, of which the L789 may return to 30-35,000 monthly sales, the L6 is expected to exceed 1.5w, and the remaining three pure electric models are expected to be launched on the H2.
The bank said that considering the uncertainty of the economic situation, industry competition or intensification, and model price reductions, the bank expects revenue of 1809/25.5 billion yuan (previous value of 2094/283.3 billion yuan) in 24/25, and an adjusted net profit of 15.9 billion yuan (previous value of 17.7 billion yuan) for 24 years. Based on 24EPE's valuation of 18x, the bank adjusted the target price to HK$155, maintaining a “buy” rating.