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Subdued Growth No Barrier To Keep Inc. (HKG:3650) With Shares Advancing 27%

Simply Wall St ·  May 12 20:16

Despite an already strong run, Keep Inc. (HKG:3650) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. Longer-term shareholders would be thankful for the recovery in the share price since it's now virtually flat for the year after the recent bounce.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Keep's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Consumer Services industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:3650 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 13th 2024

How Has Keep Performed Recently?

Keep could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Keep will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Keep?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Keep would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 3.3%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 93% in total over the last three years. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 7.8% per annum during the coming three years according to the dual analysts following the company. With the industry predicted to deliver 17% growth each year, the company is positioned for a weaker revenue result.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Keep's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What We Can Learn From Keep's P/S?

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Keep's P/S is back within range of the industry median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

When you consider that Keep's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Keep has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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