Author of this article: Zhang Yifan

Source: Hard AI

1. Optimistic about GB200 DGX shipments in 2025, Damo raised Foxconn (IFF) 2026E EPS

Regarding the foundry side of AI servers, Damo published another report teasing the market.

Damo predicts in the report that Foxconn will provide 70% of NVIDIA GB200 DGX server systems and 20% of GB200 MGX server systems in 2025.

Incidentally, GB200 shipments in 2025 are also predicted:

EPS still has to grow ——

· GPU module assembly, GPU motherboard assembly: the increase is mainly due to the increase in GPU shipments in 24 and 25;

· Server motherboard assembly, server assembly: The growth is mainly due to the company's addition of this part of the business;

· Cabinet assembly: The increase is mainly due to the increase in the value of single cabinets and the increase in cabinet shipments;

Damo believes that based on their assumptions about GB200 shipments, AI will eventually contribute 24.6% of Foxconn's profit in 2025.

Referring to H100, Foxconn's main work processes are: GPU module assembly, GPU motherboard assembly, and cabinet assembly (see figure below).

However, in GB200, Foxconn's industrial chain may be further extended, which is the reason for EPS growth.

In addition to GPU module assembly, GPU motherboard assembly, and cabinet assembly, Foxconn will also assemble server motherboards and assemble and ship servers (because according to public information, Foxconn recently made a layout in these fields).

2. UBS suggested investment opportunities for GB200 and mentioned Foxconn, Guangda, and Wistron

UBS mentioned in a report at the end of April that GB200 has three changes compared to GH200:

· Migrating from x86 to ARM;

· Migrating from HGX to the MGX platform;

· Migration from air cooling to liquid cooling;

As a result, UBS believes there will be three categories of beneficiaries in the hardware sector:

· Motherboard/Switch suppliers: Hon Hai (FII) and Wistron;

· Server rack vendors: Hon Hai (FII) and Quanta;

· Heat dissipation suppliers;

Unlike Damo, UBS is more optimistic about GB200 shipments in 2025, mainly considering the strong demand for GB200 server racks from cloud vendors (all of which have raised capital expenses).

UBS believes that in 2025, the GB200 72-GPU equivalent AI server will be shipped 31,000 units, or 1.1 million GPUs.

3. Bank of America: Under the search war, although Perplexity and Claude.ai grew significantly, the number of visits was less than 0.2% of Google

According to the Bank of America's latest report, emerging AI search websites, such as Perplexity and Claude.ai, have significantly higher daily web traffic than other websites. In April, Perplexity.ai traffic increased 33% month-on-month to 2.6 million; Claude's traffic increased 13% month-on-month to 2.2 million.

Overall, however, the combined daily traffic of these emerging AI sites tracked by Bank of America is far less than 0.2% of Google's daily visits.

Statcounter's April data shows:

1) Google's global search market share fell 46 basis points month-on-month (down 191 basis points year-on-year) to 90.9%;

2) Bing's share increased 27 basis points month-on-month (up 88 basis points year-on-year) to 3.6%;

3) Other search engines (including Yandex, Baidu, Naver, DuckDuckGo, and other smaller search engines (but not including ChatGPT) grew 16 basis points per month (102 basis points year over year) to 4.3%;

Overall, Google's biggest competitor is probably Microsoft (without discussing ChatGPT). The recent downside is OpenAI's launch of a new search engine (according to media reports).

4. Damo: The CPU architecture moved from x86 to ARM, bringing TSMC a higher share of CPU foundry

Damo believes that as AMD's market share in high-end chips gradually increases (its main OEM partner is TSMC), TSMC will gain a higher share of CPU foundry.

Furthermore, considering AI catalysis, the market's high demand for advanced process chips and the rapid growth of HBM and CoWoS. Damo predicts that AI will contribute nearly 20% of TSMC's revenue in 2027.

However, Damo also suggests related risks:

· Intel stops/reduces outsourcing;

· Intel and/or Samsung have successfully developed leading process technology;

· Intel's foundry strategy is progressing smoothly, and competition for orders puts pressure on TSMC;

· Due to the high cost of advanced manufacturing processes, the demand for 2nm is lower than expected;