AutoZone, Inc.'s (NYSE:AZO) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.6x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 17x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, AutoZone has been doing quite well of late. The P/E is probably high because investors think the company will continue to navigate the broader market headwinds better than most. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
Is There Enough Growth For AutoZone?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, AutoZone would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 16%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 87% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 10% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be similar to the 10% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that AutoZone's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Key Takeaway
It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.
Our examination of AutoZone's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for AutoZone you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than AutoZone. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.