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There's Reason For Concern Over Cricut, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:CRCT) Massive 65% Price Jump

Simply Wall St ·  May 9 08:06

The Cricut, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRCT) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 65%. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 9.9% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may consider Cricut as a stock to avoid entirely with its 27.5x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

Cricut certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to beat most other companies over the coming period, which has increased investors' willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NasdaqGS:CRCT Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry May 9th 2024
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Cricut, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Cricut's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 38% last year. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 68% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 12% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Cricut is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

The strong share price surge has got Cricut's P/E rushing to great heights as well. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Cricut currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Cricut (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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