According to a report published by Citibank, it still downplays the Hong Kong real estate industry due to de-globalization; the performance of the four pillar industries slowed down before new drivers appeared; real interest rates were high due to economic weakness and deflation; after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, Hong Kong's mortgage interest rate may not follow the initial reduction; the retail industry was affected by the downturn in tourist consumption, and average spending per tourist fell; office buildings faced upward pressure on supply, but demand declined after layoffs; the relaxation of housing measures triggered short-term sales impulses, and more new listings were promoted at reasonable prices.
Overall, Citi expects real estate stocks with high free cash flow visibility and stable dividend prospects to outperform the market, while real estate companies that focus on housing, have huge capital expenditure plans, and high balance ratios may lag behind. The preferences are retail leasing stocks, developers, retail real estate investment trusts, and finally office buildings.
Citigroup said that since real estate agents are anxious to push for a reasonable price, demand still depends on currently stuck interest rates, so it maintains the forecast of a 10% drop in Hong Kong property prices for the whole year. The bank's preferred stocks for the second quarter were Wharf Land, Swire Properties and SHKP.