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Lifestyle China Group Limited's (HKG:2136) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Simply Wall St ·  May 7 18:45

Lifestyle China Group Limited (HKG:2136) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 28% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 32% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Lifestyle China Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.8x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Multiline Retail industry is similar at about 0.3x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

ps-multiple-vs-industry
SEHK:2136 Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry May 7th 2024

How Has Lifestyle China Group Performed Recently?

Lifestyle China Group has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing revenue at a solid pace. Perhaps the market is expecting future revenue performance to only keep up with the broader industry, which has keeping the P/S in line with expectations. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Lifestyle China Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Lifestyle China Group?

Lifestyle China Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 20% last year. The latest three year period has also seen a 20% overall rise in revenue, aided extensively by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 9.9% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's curious that Lifestyle China Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Lifestyle China Group's P/S

Lifestyle China Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Lifestyle China Group's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Lifestyle China Group that we have uncovered.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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