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Developed Countries Need Immigrants, But Housing Just Isn't Enough: Report

Developed Countries Need Immigrants, But Housing Just Isn't Enough: Report

發達國家需要移民,但住房還不夠:報告
Benzinga ·  05/06 15:21

As the boomer generation heads into retirement, certain countries need immigrants of working age to keep the productive economy running, generating tax income to support those living from pensions.

隨着嬰兒潮一代即將退休,某些國家需要工作年齡的移民來維持生產性經濟的運轉,創造稅收收入來支持靠養老金生活的人。

That's especially the case in Europe.

在歐洲尤其如此。

According to Eurostat, the European Union's official statistics body, the continent will face a 6% drop in population by the year 2100 with a fertility rate of 1.53 live births per woman.

根據歐盟官方統計機構歐盟統計局的數據,到2100年,歐洲大陸的人口將下降6%,每位女性的生育率爲1.53例活產兒。

It takes a fertility rate of 2.1 to keep a population level steady.

需要2.1的生育率才能保持人口水平的穩定。

Housing Is Not Enough: Housing shortages in most major developed economies are limiting those countries from counteracting demographic-led crises, per Bloomberg.

住房還不夠:彭博社報道,大多數主要發達經濟體的住房短缺限制了這些國家應對人口主導的危機。

And a widespread lack of affordable housing is making it harder for these countries to receive the immigrants they need to bolster their economies.

而且,經濟適用房的普遍缺乏使這些國家更難接納提振經濟所需的移民。

Canada, for instance, had a yearly population growth of almost 2.4% last year, due to open immigration policies after pandemic-era restrictions were taken down.

例如,加拿大去年的人口年增長率接近2.4%,這要歸因於疫情時代取消限制措施後的開放移民政策。

Australia's population grew 3.7% in the past two years.

澳大利亞的人口在過去兩年中增長了3.7%。

But population increases can fuel drops in GDP per capita, as is the case in 13 of the world's most advanced nations where populations increase and economic outputs don't. These include Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK as well as several top economies within the EU.

但是,人口增長可能助長人均國內生產總值的下降,世界上13個人口增長而經濟產出沒有增長的最發達國家就是如此。其中包括澳大利亞、加拿大、新西蘭、英國以及歐盟內部的幾個頂級經濟體。

Read Also: Texas Governor Abbott's Anti-Immigration Measures Spark Environmental Crisis Along Texas-Mexico Border: 'It's Been Destroyed,' Says A Resident

另請閱讀: 得克薩斯州州長雅培的反移民措施引發德克薩斯州-墨西哥邊境的環境危機:一位居民說,“它已被摧毀”

Rising home prices, as well as increasing rents, are partly behind drops in living standards. In the U.S., prices of homes are expected to grow 4.2% on average during 2024, making it a good year for homeowners and a bad one for those looking to purchase their new home, as mortgage levels continue high amid high-interest rates.

房價上漲以及租金上漲是生活水平下降的部分原因。在美國,預計2024年房屋價格將平均增長4.2%,這對於房主來說是豐收的一年,對於希望購買新房的人來說是糟糕的一年,因爲在高利率的背景下,抵押貸款水平持續居高不下。

Rising interest rates put a stop to a new home construction boom last year. The same situation has been replicated around the globe as interest rates were brought up to counteract widespread inflation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

去年,利率上升阻止了新的房屋建築熱潮。隨着俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後提高利率以抵消普遍的通貨膨脹,全球各地也出現了同樣的情況。

Governments are having trouble keeping the rate of newly built houses in line with the rate of immigration. In Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government is scaling down its immigration goals by 20% over the next three years in an effort to keep population growth realistic within the country's ability to host newcomers.

政府在使新建房屋的比例與移民率保持一致方面遇到了困難。在加拿大,總理賈斯汀·特魯多的政府正在將未來三年的移民目標縮減20%,以在該國接納新移民的能力範圍內保持現實的人口增長。

Benzinga's Take: Continuous strains in the housing sector can become a sticky hurdle against efforts to grow populations and fight demographics-led economic woes in developed nations. A loss in GDP per capita in advanced economies can mean bad news for industries relying on exports, including oil and gas, agriculture, manufacturing (including the automotive sector) and consumer electronics.

本辛加的看法:住房行業的持續壓力可能成爲阻礙發達國家人口增長和應對人口主導的經濟困境的棘手障礙。發達經濟體人均國內生產總值的損失對於依賴出口的行業來說可能意味着壞消息,包括石油和天然氣、農業、製造業(包括汽車行業)和消費電子行業。

Some of the largest ETFs following these sectors are United States Oil Fund LP, (NYSE:USO), Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETF, (NYSE:VGT) and Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA).

緊隨這些板塊的一些最大的ETF是美國石油基金有限責任公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:USO)、Vanguard信息技術指數基金ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:VGT)和景順數據庫農業基金(紐約證券交易所代碼:DBA)。

Now Read: Federal Reserve Dismisses Rate Hike Fears, Labor Market Cools, Apple Lures Investors With Record-Breaking Buyback: This Week In The Market

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Photo by Vladislav Klapin on Unsplash.

照片由 Vladislav Klapin 在 Unsplash 上拍攝。

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