Shareholders in TG Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:TGTX) may be thrilled to learn that the analysts have just delivered a major upgrade to their near-term forecasts. The analysts greatly increased their revenue estimates, suggesting a stark improvement in business fundamentals. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 22% to US$16.19 in the last 7 days. It will be interesting to see if today's upgrade is enough to propel the stock even higher.

Following the upgrade, the current consensus from TG Therapeutics' eight analysts is for revenues of US$309m in 2024 which - if met - would reflect a reasonable 6.7% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to nosedive 72% to US$0.079 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$268m and losses of US$0.11 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a definite improvement in business conditions, with a revenue upgrade supposed to lead to profitability sooner than previously forecast.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 5.9% to US$31.50 per share.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that TG Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 95% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that TG Therapeutics is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that the consensus now expects TG Therapeutics to become profitable this year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at TG Therapeutics.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple TG Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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