It's been a mediocre week for Appian Corporation (NASDAQ:APPN) shareholders, with the stock dropping 15% to US$31.98 in the week since its latest quarterly results.        Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$150m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.45 per share.      The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of.  We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.  

NasdaqGM:APPN Earnings and Revenue Growth May 4th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Appian's nine analysts is for revenues of US$615.9m in 2024. This reflects a decent 10.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months.      Losses are expected to be contained, narrowing 16% from last year to US$1.24.       Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$615.8m and US$1.18 per share in losses.         Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest consensus updates. Although revenue forecasts held steady, the consensus also made a modest increase to its losses per share forecasts.    

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 5.8% to US$42.22, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern.        The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is.  There are some variant perceptions on Appian, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$52.00 and the most bearish at US$32.00 per share.   These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.    

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Appian's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Appian's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 14% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years.    Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 13% annually.  So it's pretty clear that, while Appian's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.    

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year.        They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.       The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Appian's future valuation.  

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider.   We have estimates - from multiple Appian analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Appian that you need to be mindful of.  

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