Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from Gibraltar Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROCK), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues were US$293m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.81 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Gibraltar Industries' three analysts is for revenues of US$1.43b in 2024. This reflects a credible 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 22% to US$4.60. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.44b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.56 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 10% to US$93.67. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Gibraltar Industries analyst has a price target of US$96.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$90.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Gibraltar Industries' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Gibraltar Industries' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.7% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.5% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Gibraltar Industries is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Gibraltar Industries analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.