As you might know, Aflac Incorporated (NYSE:AFL) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Statutory earnings performance was extremely strong, with revenue of US$5.4b beating expectations by 27% and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.25, an impressive 111%ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the nine analysts covering Aflac provided consensus estimates of US$17.8b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a discernible 7.9% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 13% to US$8.13 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$17.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.30 in 2024. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Aflac's future following the latest results, with a sizeable expansion in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$85.17, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Aflac analyst has a price target of US$95.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$77.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Aflac's decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 10% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 3.4% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Aflac to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Aflac following these results. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Aflac going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Aflac (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

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