The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Association, published an article stating that in March 2024, world car sales reached 8.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0%, and an increase of 34% over February. March 2024 is still slightly 12% lower than the peak in March 2018, which is the median level of previous years. Sales volume from January to March 2024 was 21.05 million units, up 3% year over year. In March 2024, the global share of Chinese car companies was 33%.

From a global perspective, the recovery of the Chinese automobile market was strong in March, with the recovery of Chinese car companies such as Geely (00175) and Changan (000625.SZ) being the most prominent. Asian groups represented by Toyota and Kia are still underperforming. The shortage of international chips in the past two years has had little impact on the Chinese car market. Instead, it has boosted the strong performance of Chinese automobile exports, seizing the huge gap between supply and demand in the international market, and obtaining rare opportunities for development. As a highly monopoly industry such as automotive chips, this supply-side contraction will bring major opportunities to the rise of China's supply chain, and the development of electrification will also cause some international car companies to gradually decline.

1. World automobile sales trends over the years

World car sales reached 8.15 million units in March 2024, up 0% year on year and 34% month on month. March 2024 is still slightly 12% lower than the peak in March 2018, which is the median level of previous years. Sales volume from January to March 2024 was 21.05 million units, up 3% year over year.

After a continuous decline in 2018-2020, car sales in the world's major countries in 2021 were 81.35 million units, up 4% year on year, and the recovery performance after the pandemic was good. However, in 2022, there were only 80.18 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, which is only slightly higher than sales in 2020.

World car sales reached 89.01 million units in 2023, an increase of 13% over the previous year, but the gap is still 5% from the highs of recent years, and the gap level has narrowed. In 2024, it is expected to surpass 90 million at the pace of 2023.

The January-March 2023 trend was significantly lower than the sales level of the previous calendar year. April-December was better than the level of 2018-2022. This was mainly an improvement in sales due to factors such as production recovery. The world car market was stable from January to March 2024, but the Chinese auto market increased in January-February due to the Spring Festival factors, which contributed greatly to the increase in January.

2. World automobile sales trends over the years

World car sales in the table above are mainly sales in 70 countries. These 70 core countries had around 90 million units in 2019, which can also basically track monthly sales. World data has been slow in recent months due to frequent wars.

There are 100 other countries that can only track annual sales. In 2022, the total sales volume is about 3 million units. Compared with 70 major countries with 80 million units, these smaller countries have a total volume of about 3%, which has little impact.

Looking at world sales represented by major countries, world car sales fell 1% in 2018. It fell into negative annual growth for the first time since 2010. Automobile sales in 2019 were 89.81 million units, down 4% year on year, slightly better than the decline in 2008; sales in 2020 fell 13%; 2021 sales rebounded 4% year on year; world sales fell 1% year on year in 2022 were poor; the performance of the 11% world sales growth rate in 2023 was good, and the 3% growth rate of world sales from January to March 2024 was better. In January of this year, the Chinese auto market temporarily had strong Spring Festival factors at the beginning of the year, but declined in February, and the overall performance of the Chinese car market in the first quarter continued to rise steadily and slightly.

3. China maintains leading position in sales volume in 2024

The Chinese automobile market has an enormous influence on the world automobile market. Chinese cars accounted for about 30% of the world in 2016-2018, and dropped to 29% in 2019, but they still have an absolute advantage. The share rose back to 32% in 2020-2021. China's share rose to 33% in 2022.

China's share remained at 34% in 2023. The low level at the beginning of the year was a normal reflection of Spring Festival factors and the withdrawal of preferential car purchase tax policies. Subsequently, China reached 32% in January-March 2024 due to Spring Festival factors. Market shares in North America and Europe have fully recovered this year, and the trend in the southern hemisphere market will stabilize.

4. Developing country markets have strengthened significantly

Judging from the sales volume of countries around the world, it is the developed European and American markets that are currently performing relatively well. The overall trend in the Chinese car market is relatively good. Russia's sales volume is actually less than China's export volume, but Russia is also recovering, bringing China's own high profits.

5. Trends in China's global market share

At the beginning of 2023, with the withdrawal of preferential policies, China's automobile sales plummeted, and the share fell to 30% in March; recovered to a good level of 32% in February-April; rebounded to 33% in May-July, and the share of Chinese cars in the world rose to a high of 38% in August-13. In 2023, the world market was further divided, and China's share gradually rebounded. After the policy was withdrawn, China's auto market gradually recovered in 2023, and exports were strong, so the market continued to strengthen. Other countries showed good trends in March 2024. China's share of 33% of the world was better than previous years.

6. Characteristics of monthly automobile sales trends in various countries

Judging from the monthly sales growth trend in countries around the world, the trend between months is basically balanced. However, due to many influences such as seasonal factors and yearly factors, there is still a big contrast between the trends of various countries.

Since the Chinese car market is still popular, showing a relatively strong trend at the beginning and end of the year and a relatively weak trend in summer, while the US car market showed the characteristics of being relatively weak at the beginning of the year and relatively stable during the year, the spring rise in the Chinese car market was not obvious, so the share did not increase much.

As car markets such as Europe and the US are facing gradual recovery, the trend in the car market is relatively stable. The trend of the Japanese car market in March of this year was not strong, and the Chinese car market in early 2024 is still good.

7. World share performance of international groups

8. Regional share performance of international groups

China's own brands have increased their global share across the board. BYD, Changan, and Great Wall have performed well independently.

With the exception of Suzuki and Honda, the share of international brands declined across the board. The Toyota Group's performance was relatively weak, down 1.8 percentage points from last year. In 2024, the global share reached around 10.6%, but the overall performance of the North American market was strong.

Volkswagen's performance was relatively stable, its share increased slightly by 0.05%, and the Chinese market stabilized. The VW Group's overall global market has improved greatly, and the southern hemisphere market has clearly rebounded.

The trend of Hyundai Motors in South Korea is relatively stable, down 0.6 percentage points from last year. In 2024, the world share was around 7.4%. It performed well in other Asian markets, but its product strength in China was weak and weak.

Suzuki's market performance is strong, mainly in markets such as Japan. The Honda Group also performed well with 0.2% growth this year, and the performance of the Chinese market was weak.

The performance of the German Mercedes-Benz and BMW Group was stable, and the performance of the Chinese market for traditional luxury cars improved. At the beginning of this year, the Chinese market for luxury cars had a low base and high growth.