The Zhitong Finance App learned that ADP employment data, which has the title of “Little Non-Farmer”, shows that the recruitment pace of US companies in April is still strong, showing that demand for employees in various industries is still strong. Strong ADP employment data also means that under the impetus of the still hot labor market, the stickiness of US inflation, stimulated by wage growth, is still very strong. A number of Federal Reserve officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, said in recent weeks that if the US economic data continues to be strong, they will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates for a longer period of time. rate ( higher for longer), Powell is expected to restate this position after the FOMC meeting this week.

According to ADP employment data jointly released by ADP Research Institute (ADP Research Institute) and Stanford Digital Economy Lab (Stanford Digital Economy Lab) on Wednesday, the number of people employed in the US private sector increased by about 192,000 last month. The previous month's data was revised upward, that is, ADP employment rose to 208,000 in March. The ADP employment data for April surpassed economists' general expectations of an increase of about 183,000 people. According to some analysts, this latest data may be what the Federal Reserve is expecting, but it is completely insufficient to motivate the Fed to change its strategy of high interest rates.

According to the data, the “back-to-back” increase in ADP employment in March and April can be described as the biggest increase since the middle of last year. Among them, employment growth in the southern region was the strongest. The ADP Research Institute's joint survey results are based on the latest salary data for more than 25 million US private sector employees.

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson (Nela Richardson) said in a statement: “The increase in recruitment numbers in April was very broad-based.” “The leisure and hospitality industry and the construction sector have driven overall employment growth. The IT industry is the only industry that is making layoffs.”

According to information, over the past few months, the US labor market has remained more elastic than economists expected. Although the US benchmark interest rate has remained at a historically high level for a long time, American companies' demand for workers has been very healthy, and the unemployment rate is also very low. This helps stimulate the pace of US consumer spending and maintain an upward trend in prices. In turn, Fed officials are fully motivated to keep interest rates high. Some economists even expect that the Fed may not cut interest rates this year.

Wall Street asset management agencies generally expect that Federal Reserve officials will keep interest rates unchanged at the highest level in 20 years at the end of the policy meeting on Wednesday EST. Many policymakers, including Powell, have hinted that given the lack of progress in fighting inflation this year, they are unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term.

After the “small non-farmers” data was released, interest rate market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year continued to cool down, and traders postponed their expectations for the first rate cut from September to November or December. Bank of America economist Michael Gapen said before the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate decision that the unexpected stubbornness of US inflation made the Fed not have enough confidence to consider cutting interest rates, causing interest rates to remain high for a longer period of time. The bank now expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once in December this year.

Overall ADP data shows that wage growth is slowing down. For those who changed jobs, wages rose by about 9.3%, down almost a percentage point from the previous month. According to the ADP report, the median salary increase for retained employees was about 5%, similar to the March salary increase.

Another report released on Tuesday showed that another US labor cost indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve accelerated in the first quarter. The increase was higher than expected, indicating that wage pressure continued.

According to economists' general expectations, the US government's monthly employment data scheduled to be released on Friday, that is, non-farm payrolls are expected to show a sharp slowdown in the number of non-farm payrolls following a blowout increase in the March employment report. Economists' median forecasts show that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US is expected to increase by 240,000 in April, which will be the slowest growth rate since November last year. In recent months, non-farm payrolls figures have all surpassed economists' expectations.