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A Look At The Fair Value Of Sunac Services Holdings Limited (HKG:1516)

A Look At The Fair Value Of Sunac Services Holdings Limited (HKG:1516)

看看融創服務控股有限公司 (HKG: 1516) 的公允價值
Simply Wall St ·  04/26 18:24

Key Insights

關鍵見解

  • Using the Dividend Discount Model, Sunac Services Holdings fair value estimate is HK$2.11
  • Current share price of HK$1.89 suggests Sunac Services Holdings is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • Analyst price target for 1516 is CN¥1.80 which is 15% below our fair value estimate
  • 使用股息折扣模型,融創服務控股的公允價值估計爲2.11港元
  • 目前1.89港元的股價表明融創服務控股的交易價格可能接近其公允價值
  • 1516年的分析師目標股價爲1.80元人民幣,比我們的公允價值估計低15%

Does the April share price for Sunac Services Holdings Limited (HKG:1516) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

融創服務控股有限公司(HKG: 1516)4月份的股價是否反映了其真正價值?今天,我們將通過估算公司未來的現金流並將其折現爲現值來估算股票的內在價值。折扣現金流(DCF)模型是我們將應用的工具。不要被行話嚇跑,它背後的數學其實很簡單。

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

我們普遍認爲,公司的價值是其未來將產生的所有現金的現值。但是,差價合約只是衆多估值指標中的一個,而且並非沒有缺陷。如果你對這種估值還有一些迫切的問題,可以看看 Simply Wall St 分析模型。

Is Sunac Services Holdings Fairly Valued?

融創服務控股的估值是否合理?

As Sunac Services Holdings operates in the real estate sector, we need to calculate the intrinsic value slightly differently. In this approach dividends per share (DPS) are used, as free cash flow is difficult to estimate and often not reported by analysts. This often underestimates the value of a stock, but it can still be good as a comparison to competitors. We use the Gordon Growth Model, which assumes dividend will grow into perpetuity at a rate that can be sustained. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a company's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In this case we used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%). The expected dividend per share is then discounted to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.4%. Relative to the current share price of HK$1.9, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

由於融創服務控股在房地產領域開展業務,我們需要以略有不同的方式計算內在價值。這種方法使用每股股息(DPS),因爲自由現金流難以估計,而且分析師通常不報告。這通常低估了股票的價值,但與競爭對手相比,它仍然可以很好地發揮作用。我們使用戈登增長模型,該模型假設股息將以可以持續的速度永久增長。出於多種原因,使用了非常保守的增長率,不能超過公司的國內生產總值(GDP)。在本例中,我們使用了10年期國債收益率的5年平均值(2.0%)。然後,每股預期的股息將折現爲今天的價值,股本成本爲9.4%。相對於目前的1.9港元的股價,該公司的公允價值似乎比目前的股價折扣了11%。但是,估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——移動幾度,最終進入另一個星系。請記住這一點。

Value Per Share = Expected Dividend Per Share / (Discount Rate - Perpetual Growth Rate)

每股價值 = 每股預期股息/(折現率-永久增長率)

= CN¥0.1 / (9.4% – 2.0%)

= CN¥0.1/(9.4% — 2.0%)

= HK$2.1

= 2.1 港元

dcf
SEHK:1516 Discounted Cash Flow April 26th 2024
SEHK: 1516 2024 年 4 月 26 日貼現現金流

Important Assumptions

重要假設

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sunac Services Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.305. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

上面的計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。如果你不同意這些結果,那就自己計算一下,試一試假設。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將融創服務控股視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了9.4%,這是基於1.305的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。

Moving On:

繼續前進:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Sunac Services Holdings, we've put together three further items you should assess:

就建立投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,理想情況下,它不會是你爲公司仔細研究的唯一分析內容。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。取而代之的是,DCF模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,公司權益成本或無風險利率的變化會對估值產生重大影響。對於融創服務控股公司,我們彙總了您應該評估的另外三個項目:

  1. Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Sunac Services Holdings we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 1516's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
  1. 風險:在考慮投資融創服務控股公司之前,您應該注意我們發現的融創服務控股的一個警告信號。
  2. 未來收益:與同行和整個市場相比,1516的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
  3. 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有堅實業務基礎的股票互動清單,看看是否還有其他你可能沒有考慮過的公司!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SEHK every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

PS。Simply Wall St應用程序每天對聯交所的每隻股票進行折扣現金流估值。如果您想找到其他股票的計算結果,請在此處搜索。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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