Fed's Key Inflation Indicator Hits 2.8%, Dashes Rate Cut Hopes; Traders On Alert
Fed's Key Inflation Indicator Hits 2.8%, Dashes Rate Cut Hopes; Traders On Alert
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index – rose more than expected in March, confirming concerning signs of a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the first quarter of the year.
聯儲局首選的通貨膨脹指標——個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數——在3月份的漲幅超過預期，這證實了今年第一季度通貨膨脹壓力再起的令人擔憂的跡象。
The higher-than-expected PCE report serves as a stark reality check for traders, further postponing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut that had already been dwindling in recent weeks.
高於預期的個人消費支出報告對交易者來說是一次嚴峻的現實檢查，進一步推遲了最近幾周對聯儲局降息的預期。
March PCE Report: Key Highlights
三月份PCE報告：主要亮點
- The headline PCE price index rose from 2.5% in February 2024 to 2.7% year-on-year in March, beating forecasts of a 2.6% increase, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.
- On a monthly basis, the headline PCE accelerated by 0.3%, unchanged from the 0.3% recorded in February, and matching expectations.
- When excluding energy and food expenses, the core PCE price index held steady at 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing predictions of a decline to 2.6%.
- On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE advanced at a 0.3% pace, unchanged from both the previous and expected 0.3%.
- 經濟分析局週五報告稱，總體個人消費支出價格指數從2024年2月的2.5％上漲至3月份的2.7％，超過了預期的2.6％的漲幅。
- 按月計算，總體個人消費支出增長了0.3％，與2月份的0.3％持平，符合預期。
- 不包括能源和食品支出，核心個人消費支出價格指數同比穩定在2.8％，超過了下降至2.6％的預期。
- 按月計算，核心個人消費支出以0.3％的速度增長，與之前和預期的0.3％持平。
| Indicator | February 2024 |
March 2024 |
March (expected) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE YoY | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Headline PCE MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core PCE YoY (excl. energy & food) | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Core PCE MoM (excl. energy & food) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 指示器 | 二月 2024 |
三月 2024 |
三月 （預期） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 總體個人消費支出同比 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| PCE 月度頭條 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 核心個人消費支出同比（不包括能源和食品） | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| 核心個人消費支出月率（不包括能源和食品） | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Market Reactions
市場反應
Market-implied probabilities indicated a 60% chance of a rate cut by September 2024, and priced in cumulatively 35 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, implying just one rate cut.
市場隱含的概率表明，到2024年9月降息的可能性爲60％，到年底累計降息35個點子，這意味着只有一次降息。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), inched higher minutes after the PCE release.
景順數據庫美元指數看漲基金ETF（紐約證券交易所代碼：UUP）追蹤的美元指數（DXY）在PCE發佈幾分鐘後小幅上漲。
Futures on major U.S. averages rallied during Friday's pre-market trading following upbeat quarterly results from Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:MSFT), which offset Thursday's negative sentiment stemming from Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META)'s weaker-than-expected guidance.
在Alphabet Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：GOOGL）和微軟公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：MSFT）公佈樂觀的季度業績之後，美國主要股指期貨在週五的盤前交易中上漲，這抵消了週四因Meta Platforms Inc.（納斯達克股票代碼：MSFT）的指引低於預期而產生的負面情緒。
However, with the Fed's preferred inflation gauge pushing any rate cut talks further into the future, traders may potentially brace for macro-related volatility in the last session of the week.
但是，隨着聯儲局首選的通脹指標將任何降息談判推向未來，交易者可能會爲本週最後一個交易日的宏觀相關波動做好準備。
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