It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you want to avoid the really big losses like the plague. So consider, for a moment, the misfortune of China Gas Holdings Limited (HKG:384) investors who have held the stock for three years as it declined a whopping 76%. That would be a disturbing experience. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 30% in a year. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 8.9% in thirty days.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for China Gas Holdings isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years that the share price fell, China Gas Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 34% each year. This change in EPS is reasonably close to the 38% average annual decrease in the share price. So it seems that investor expectations of the company are staying pretty steady, despite the disappointment. In this case, it seems that the EPS is guiding the share price.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of China Gas Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for China Gas Holdings the TSR over the last 3 years was -72%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 9.2% in the twelve months, China Gas Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 25% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 11% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for China Gas Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

China Gas Holdings is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.