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Is Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd (SZSE:000895) A Risky Investment?

Is Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd (SZSE:000895) A Risky Investment?

河南雙匯投資開發有限公司(深圳證券交易所代碼:000895)是風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  04/20 22:21

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000895) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

由伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李露對此毫不掩飾,他說:“最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受永久的資本損失。”當你檢查公司的資產負債表的風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時通常會涉及債務。我們注意到,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司, Ltd.(深圳證券交易所代碼:000895)的資產負債表上確實有債務。但真正的問題是這筆債務是否使公司面臨風險。

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務會帶來什麼風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。資本主義的組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常會看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以不良价格籌集資金。但是,通過取代稀釋,對於需要資本以高回報率投資增長的企業來說,債務可以成爲一個非常好的工具。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。

How Much Debt Does Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd Carry?

河南雙匯投資開發有限公司揹負了多少債務?

As you can see below, at the end of December 2023, Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd had CN¥7.00b of debt, up from CN¥3.67b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. On the flip side, it has CN¥6.79b in cash leading to net debt of about CN¥209.5m.

如下所示,截至2023年12月底,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的債務爲700億元人民幣,高於去年同期的36.7億元人民幣。點擊圖片了解更多詳情。另一方面,它擁有67.9億元的現金,淨負債約爲2.095億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SZSE:000895 Debt to Equity History April 21st 2024
SZSE: 000895 2024 年 4 月 21 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd's Liabilities

看看河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的負債

The latest balance sheet data shows that Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd had liabilities of CN¥14.0b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥1.51b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of CN¥6.79b as well as receivables valued at CN¥1.20b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥7.54b.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的負債爲140億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲151億元人民幣。除這些債務外,它有67.9億元的現金以及價值12億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額75.4億元人民幣。

Since publicly traded Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd shares are worth a very impressive total of CN¥95.6b, it seems unlikely that this level of liabilities would be a major threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward. But either way, Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd has virtually no net debt, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

由於上市的河南雙匯投資開發有限公司股票總價值高達956億元人民幣,因此這種負債水平似乎不太可能構成重大威脅。但是,有足夠的負債,我們肯定會建議股東今後繼續監督資產負債表。但是無論如何,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司幾乎沒有淨負債,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。

Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd has very modest net debt levels, with net debt at just 0.027 times EBITDA. Humorously, it actually received more in interest over the last twelve months than it had to pay. So it's fair to say it can handle debt like an Olympic ice-skater handles a pirouette. But the other side of the story is that Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd saw its EBIT decline by 4.1% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的淨負債水平非常溫和,淨負債僅爲息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的0.027倍。幽默的是,在過去的十二個月中,它獲得的利息實際上超過了它必須支付的利息。因此,可以公平地說,它可以像奧運滑冰運動員處理旋轉木馬一樣處理債務。但故事的另一面是,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的息稅前利潤比去年下降了4.1%。如果收益繼續以這種速度下降,公司管理債務負擔的難度可能會越來越大。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但最終,該業務未來的盈利能力將決定河南雙匯投資開發有限公司能否隨着時間的推移加強其資產負債表。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. In the last three years, Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd's free cash flow amounted to 38% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

最後,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸款人只接受冷硬現金。因此,合乎邏輯的步驟是研究息稅前利潤與實際自由現金流相匹配的比例。在過去三年中,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的38%,低於我們的預期。這種疲軟的現金轉換使得處理債務變得更加困難。

Our View

我們的觀點

Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd's interest cover suggests it can handle its debt as easily as Cristiano Ronaldo could score a goal against an under 14's goalkeeper. But truth be told we feel its EBIT growth rate does undermine this impression a bit. Looking at all the aforementioned factors together, it strikes us that Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd can handle its debt fairly comfortably. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd that you should be aware of before investing here.

河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的利息保障表明,它可以像克里斯蒂亞諾·羅納爾多在對陣14歲以下的守門員的比賽中進球一樣輕鬆地處理債務。但說實話,我們認爲其息稅前利潤增長率確實稍微削弱了這種印象。綜合上述所有因素,我們感到驚訝的是,河南雙匯投資開發有限公司能夠相當輕鬆地處理債務。當然,儘管這種槓桿可以提高股本回報率,但它確實帶來了更多的風險,因此值得關注。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。例如,我們發現了河南雙匯投資開發有限公司的兩個警告信號,在這裏投資之前,您應該注意這些信號。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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