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Is Weichai Power (HKG:2338) A Risky Investment?

Is Weichai Power (HKG:2338) A Risky Investment?

濰柴動力(HKG: 2338)是一項風險投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  04/15 00:20

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (HKG:2338) makes use of debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。與許多其他公司一樣,濰柴動力有限公司(HKG: 2338)也使用債務。但是,股東是否應該擔心其債務的使用?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時危險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務可以幫助企業,直到企業難以償還債務,無論是新資本還是自由現金流。最終,如果公司無法履行償還債務的法律義務,股東可能會一無所獲。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司爲了控制債務,必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。當我們考慮公司使用債務時,我們首先將現金和債務放在一起考慮。

What Is Weichai Power's Net Debt?

濰柴動力的淨負債是多少?

As you can see below, Weichai Power had CN¥53.0b of debt, at December 2023, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. But it also has CN¥104.3b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥51.2b net cash.

如下所示,截至2023年12月,濰柴動力有530億元人民幣的債務,與前一年大致相同。您可以單擊圖表以獲取更多詳細信息。但它也有1043億元的現金來抵消這一點,這意味着它有512億元的淨現金。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:2338 Debt to Equity History April 15th 2024
SEHK: 2338 2024 年 4 月 15 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Weichai Power's Liabilities

看看濰柴動力的負債

The latest balance sheet data shows that Weichai Power had liabilities of CN¥146.2b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥75.3b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥104.3b in cash and CN¥52.3b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥65.0b.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,濰柴動力的負債爲1462億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲753億元人民幣。與此相抵消的是,它有1043億加元的現金和523億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債超過其現金和(短期)應收賬款總額650億元人民幣。

Weichai Power has a very large market capitalization of CN¥149.9b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Weichai Power boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

濰柴動力的市值非常大,爲1499億元人民幣,因此,如果有需要,它很可能會籌集資金以改善其資產負債表。但很明顯,我們一定要仔細研究它能否在不稀釋的情況下管理債務。儘管負債巨大,但濰柴動力擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

Even more impressive was the fact that Weichai Power grew its EBIT by 291% over twelve months. If maintained that growth will make the debt even more manageable in the years ahead. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Weichai Power's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

更令人印象深刻的是,濰柴動力的息稅前利潤在十二個月內增長了291%。如果這種增長得以維持,將使未來幾年的債務更加易於管理。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是,未來收益將決定濰柴動力未來保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. Weichai Power may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last three years, Weichai Power generated free cash flow amounting to a very robust 91% of its EBIT, more than we'd expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.

但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。濰柴動力的資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但看看該企業如何將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。在過去三年中,濰柴動力產生的自由現金流相當於其息稅前利潤的91%,超出了我們的預期。這使其在償還債務方面處於非常有利的地位。

Summing Up

總結

Although Weichai Power's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥51.2b. And it impressed us with free cash flow of CN¥20b, being 91% of its EBIT. So we don't think Weichai Power's use of debt is risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Weichai Power .

儘管由於負債總額,濰柴動力的資產負債表並不是特別強勁,但其淨現金爲512億元人民幣顯然是樂觀的。它以200億元人民幣的自由現金流給我們留下了深刻的印象,佔其息稅前利潤的91%。因此,我們認爲濰柴動力使用債務沒有風險。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,並非所有的投資風險都存在於資產負債表中,遠非如此。爲此,你應該注意我們在濰柴動力身上發現的1個警告信號。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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