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Are Investors Undervaluing Luenmei Quantum Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600167) By 27%?
Are Investors Undervaluing Luenmei Quantum Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600167) By 27%?
Key Insights
- Luenmei QuantumLtd's estimated fair value is CN¥8.16 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
- Current share price of CN¥5.97 suggests Luenmei QuantumLtd is potentially 27% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 4.5% higher than Luenmei QuantumLtd's analyst price target of CN¥7.81
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Luenmei Quantum Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600167) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Luenmei QuantumLtd Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) | CN¥993.8m | CN¥959.3m | CN¥944.5m | CN¥942.6m | CN¥949.6m | CN¥962.9m | CN¥980.9m | CN¥1.00b | CN¥1.03b | CN¥1.05b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ -6.21% | Est @ -3.47% | Est @ -1.54% | Est @ -0.20% | Est @ 0.74% | Est @ 1.40% | Est @ 1.86% | Est @ 2.19% | Est @ 2.41% | Est @ 2.57% |
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% | CN¥925 | CN¥831 | CN¥761 | CN¥707 | CN¥663 | CN¥626 | CN¥593 | CN¥564 | CN¥538 | CN¥514 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥6.7b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.1b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.9%) = CN¥24b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥24b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= CN¥12b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥18b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥6.0, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 27% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Luenmei QuantumLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Luenmei QuantumLtd
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
- Dividend information for 600167.
- Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Water Utilities industry.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
- What else are analysts forecasting for 600167?
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Luenmei QuantumLtd, we've compiled three important aspects you should further examine:
- Risks: We feel that you should assess the 1 warning sign for Luenmei QuantumLtd we've flagged before making an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does 600167's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Chinese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
關鍵見解
- 根據兩階段股本自由現金流,Luenmei QuantumLtd的估計公允價值爲8.16元人民幣
- 目前5.97元人民幣的股價表明Luenmei QuantumLtd的估值可能被低估了27%
- 我們的公允價值估計比Luenmei QuantumLtd的分析師目標股價7.81元高出4.5%
在本文中,我們將估算Luenmei Quantum Co的內在價值。, Ltd(上海證券交易所股票代碼:600167),計算預期的未來現金流並將其折現爲今天的價值。在這種情況下,我們將使用折扣現金流(DCF)模型。在你認爲自己無法理解之前,請繼續閱讀!實際上,它沒有你想象的那麼複雜。
但請記住,估算公司價值的方法有很多,而差價合約只是一種方法。任何有興趣進一步了解內在價值的人都應該讀一讀 Simply Wall St 分析模型。
Luenmei QuantumLtd 的估值是否合理?
我們使用所謂的兩階段模型,這僅意味着公司的現金流有兩個不同的增長期。通常,第一階段是較高的增長階段,第二階段是較低的增長階段。首先,我們需要估計未來十年的現金流。鑑於我們沒有分析師對自由現金流的估計,我們從公司上次公佈的價值中推斷了之前的自由現金流(FCF)。我們假設自由現金流萎縮的公司將減緩其萎縮速度,而自由現金流不斷增長的公司在此期間的增長率將放緩。我們這樣做是爲了反映早期增長的放緩幅度往往比後來的幾年更大。
通常,我們假設今天的一美元比未來一美元更有價值,因此我們將這些未來現金流的價值折現爲以今天的美元計算的估計價值:
10 年自由現金流 (FCF) 預測
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
槓桿FCF(人民幣,百萬) | 99380 萬元人民幣 | 9.593 億元人民幣 | 944.5 億人民幣 | 9.426 億人民幣 | 9.49 億元人民幣 | 9.629億元人民幣 | 9.80.9 億元人民幣 | cn¥1.00b | cn¥1.03b | cn¥1.05b |
增長率估算來源 | 美國東部標準時間 @ -6.21% | Est @ -3.47% | 美國東部標準時間 @ -1.54% | 美國東部時間 @ -0.20% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 0.74% | 美國東部標準時間 @ 1.40% | Est @ 1.86% | Est @ 2.19% | Est @ 2.41% | Est @ 2.57% |
現值(人民幣,百萬)折扣價 @ 7.4% | CN¥925 | 人民幣831 | CN¥761 | CN¥707 | CN¥663 | CN¥626 | CN¥593 | 564 元人民幣 | CN¥538 | 514 元人民幣 |
(“Est” = Simply Wall St估計的FCF增長率)
10 年期現金流 (PVCF) 的現值 = 67億元人民幣
第二階段也稱爲終值,這是企業在第一階段之後的現金流。戈登增長公式用於計算終值,其未來年增長率等於10年期國債收益率2.9%的5年平均水平。我們將終端現金流折現爲今天的價值,權益成本爲7.4%。
終端價值 (TV) = FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r — g) = 人民幣1.1億元× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4% — 2.9%) = 240億元人民幣
終端價值的現值 (PVTV) = 電視/ (1 + r)10= CN¥24b÷ (1 + 7.4%)10= cn¥12b
因此,總價值或權益價值是未來現金流現值的總和,在本例中爲180億元人民幣。在最後一步中,我們將股票價值除以已發行股票的數量。與目前6.0元人民幣的股價相比,該公司的估值似乎略有低估,比目前的股價折扣了27%。但是,估值是不精確的工具,就像望遠鏡一樣——移動幾度,最終進入另一個星系。請記住這一點。
假設
上面的計算在很大程度上取決於兩個假設。第一個是貼現率,另一個是現金流。你不必同意這些輸入,我建議你自己重做計算然後試一試。DCF也沒有考慮一個行業可能的週期性,也沒有考慮公司未來的資本需求,因此它沒有全面反映公司的潛在表現。鑑於我們將Luenmei QuantumLtd視爲潛在股東,因此使用權益成本作爲貼現率,而不是構成債務的資本成本(或加權平均資本成本,WACC)。在此計算中,我們使用了7.4%,這是基於0.800的槓桿測試版。Beta是衡量股票與整個市場相比波動性的指標。我們的測試版來自全球可比公司的行業平均貝塔值,設定在0.8到2.0之間,這是一個穩定的業務的合理範圍。
Luenmei QuantumLtd 的 SWOT 分析
- 過去一年的收益增長超過了其5年平均水平。
- 債務不被視爲風險。
- 股息由收益和現金流支付。
- 股息在市場上名列前25%的股息支付者。
- 600167的股息信息。
- 過去一年的收益增長表現低於自來水公用事業行業。
- 預計未來三年的年收入將增長。
- 根據市盈率和估計的公允價值,物有所值。
- 預計年收益增長將低於中國市場。
- 分析師對600167還有什麼預測?
後續步驟:
就建立投資論點而言,估值只是硬幣的一面,它不應該是你在研究公司時唯一考慮的指標。DCF模型不是完美的股票估值工具。取而代之的是,DCF模型的最佳用途是測試某些假設和理論,看看它們是否會導致公司被低估或高估。例如,如果稍微調整終值增長率,則可能會極大地改變整體結果。股價低於內在價值的原因是什麼?對於Luenmei QuantumLtd,我們整理了三個重要方面,你應該進一步研究:
- 風險:我們認爲,在投資Luenmei QuantumLtd之前,您應該評估我們標記的Luenmei QuantumLtd的1個警告信號。
- 未來收益:與同行和整個市場相比,600167的增長率如何?通過與我們的免費分析師增長預期圖表互動,深入了解未來幾年的分析師共識數字。
- 其他穩健的業務:低債務、高股本回報率和良好的過去表現是強大業務的基礎。爲什麼不瀏覽我們具有堅實業務基礎的股票互動清單,看看是否還有其他你可能沒有考慮過的公司!
PS。Simply Wall St每天都會更新每隻中國股票的差價合約計算結果,因此,如果您想找到任何其他股票的內在價值,請在此處搜索。
對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
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Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
風險及免責聲明
moomoo是Moomoo Technologies Inc.公司提供的金融資訊和交易應用程式。
在美國,moomoo上的投資產品和服務由Moomoo Financial Inc.提供,一家受美國證券交易委員會(SEC)監管的持牌主體。 Moomoo Financial Inc.是金融業監管局(FINRA)和證券投資者保護公司(SIPC)的成員。
在新加坡,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是通過Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.提供,該公司受新加坡金融管理局(MAS)監管(牌照號碼︰CMS101000) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMS) ,持有財務顧問豁免(Exempt Financial Adviser)資質。本內容未經新加坡金融管理局的審查。
在澳大利亞,moomoo上的金融產品和服務是通過Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd提供,該公司是受澳大利亞證券和投資委員會(ASIC)監管的澳大利亞金融服務許可機構(AFSL No. 224663)。請閱讀並理解我們的《金融服務指南》、《條款與條件》、《隱私政策》和其他披露文件,這些文件可在我們的網站 https://www.moomoo.com/au中獲取。
在加拿大,透過moomoo應用程式提供的僅限訂單執行的券商服務由Moomoo Financial Canada Inc.提供,並受加拿大投資監管機構(CIRO)監管。
在馬來西亞,moomoo上的投資產品和服務是透過Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. 提供,該公司受馬來西亞證券監督委員會(SC)監管(牌照號碼︰eCMSL/A0397/2024) ,持有資本市場服務牌照 (CMSL) 。本內容未經馬來西亞證券監督委員會的審查。
Moomoo Technologies Inc., Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Financial Singapore Pte. Ltd.,Futu Securities (Australia) Ltd, Moomoo Financial Canada Inc和Moomoo Securities Malaysia Sdn. Bhd., 是關聯公司。
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