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We Think Shenzhou International Group Holdings (HKG:2313) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Shenzhou International Group Holdings (HKG:2313) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲神州國際集團控股公司(HKG: 2313)可以繼續償還債務
Simply Wall St ·  04/12 20:31

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited (HKG:2313) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 “永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。”當你檢查公司的資產負債表的風險時,考慮它的資產負債表是很自然的,因爲企業倒閉時通常會涉及債務。與許多其他公司一樣,神州國際集團控股有限公司(HKG: 2313)也使用債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

債務何時危險?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或用自己的現金流輕鬆還清債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。資本主義的組成部分是 “創造性破壞” 過程,在這種過程中,倒閉的企業被銀行家無情地清算。儘管這種情況並不常見,但我們經常會看到負債公司永久稀釋股東,因爲貸款人迫使他們以不良价格籌集資金。話雖如此,最常見的情況是公司合理地管理債務,而且對自己有利。當我們檢查債務水平時,我們首先要同時考慮現金和債務水平。

How Much Debt Does Shenzhou International Group Holdings Carry?

神州國際集團控股公司持有多少債務?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of December 2023 Shenzhou International Group Holdings had CN¥12.1b of debt, an increase on CN¥9.20b, over one year. But it also has CN¥16.9b in cash to offset that, meaning it has CN¥4.77b net cash.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示,截至2023年12月,神州國際集團控股在一年內有121億元人民幣的債務,比92.0億元人民幣有所增加。但它也有169億元的現金來抵消這一點,這意味着它的淨現金爲47.7億元人民幣。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:2313 Debt to Equity History April 13th 2024
SEHK: 2313 2024 年 4 月 13 日債務與股本比率的歷史記錄

A Look At Shenzhou International Group Holdings' Liabilities

看看神州國際集團控股的負債

The latest balance sheet data shows that Shenzhou International Group Holdings had liabilities of CN¥13.4b due within a year, and liabilities of CN¥2.36b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥16.9b in cash and CN¥5.03b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it can boast CN¥6.16b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,神州國際集團控股的負債爲134億元人民幣,此後到期的負債爲23.6億元人民幣。與此相抵消的是,它有169億加元的現金和50.3億元人民幣的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,它擁有的流動資產可以多出61.6億元人民幣 負債。

This short term liquidity is a sign that Shenzhou International Group Holdings could probably pay off its debt with ease, as its balance sheet is far from stretched. Succinctly put, Shenzhou International Group Holdings boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

這種短期流動性表明,神州國際集團控股可能會輕鬆償還債務,因爲其資產負債表遠未捉襟見肘。簡而言之,神州國際集團控股擁有淨現金,因此可以公平地說,它沒有沉重的債務負擔!

While Shenzhou International Group Holdings doesn't seem to have gained much on the EBIT line, at least earnings remain stable for now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Shenzhou International Group Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

儘管神州國際集團控股公司在息稅前利潤方面似乎沒有太大收益,但至少目前收益保持穩定。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但是,未來的收益將決定神州國際集團控股公司未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. Shenzhou International Group Holdings may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. Looking at the most recent three years, Shenzhou International Group Holdings recorded free cash flow of 41% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。神州國際集團控股公司資產負債表上可能有淨現金,但研究該企業如何將其利息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流仍然很有趣,因爲這將影響其對債務的需求和管理能力。從最近三年來看,神州國際集團控股的自由現金流佔其息稅前利潤的41%,低於我們的預期。在償還債務方面,這並不好。

Summing Up

總結

While it is always sensible to investigate a company's debt, in this case Shenzhou International Group Holdings has CN¥4.77b in net cash and a decent-looking balance sheet. So we are not troubled with Shenzhou International Group Holdings's debt use. Over time, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, so if you're interested in Shenzhou International Group Holdings, you may well want to click here to check an interactive graph of its earnings per share history.

儘管調查公司的債務總是明智的,但在本案中,神州國際集團控股的淨現金爲47.7億元人民幣,資產負債表看起來不錯。因此,我們對神州國際集團控股的債務使用並不感到困擾。隨着時間的推移,股價往往遵循每股收益,因此,如果你對神州國際集團控股感興趣,你很可能想點擊這裏查看其每股收益歷史的互動圖表。

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

如果你有興趣投資能夠在沒有債務負擔的情況下增加利潤的企業,請查看這份資產負債表上有淨現金的成長型企業的免費清單。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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