China's Economy Expected To Surge 5.3% This Year, Fueled By Property Sector Stabilization And Regional Growth: AMRO
China's Economy Expected To Surge 5.3% This Year, Fueled By Property Sector Stabilization And Regional Growth: AMRO
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) anticipates China's economy to expand by 5.3% this year, bolstered by the stabilizing property sector and improving external demand.
東盟+3宏觀經濟研究辦公室（AMRO）預計，受房地產行業穩定和外部需求改善的推動，中國經濟今年將增長5.3％。
What Happened: AMRO, based in Singapore, suggests that a gradual recovery in China's property market, backed by ongoing policy measures, will boost real estate investment and have positive ripple effects on the rest of the region. This forecast was first reported by Bloomberg on Monday.
發生了什麼：總部位於新加坡的AMRO表示，在持續的政策措施的支持下，中國房地產市場的逐步復甦將促進房地產投資，並對該地區其他地區產生積極的連鎖反應。彭博社週一首次報道了這一預測。
This growth projection aligns with China's official target of around 5%, a target deemed ambitious and requiring further governmental support. Despite the economic activity uptick at the start of 2024, the economy still faces numerous challenges.
這一增長預測與中國設定的5％左右的官方目標一致，這一目標被認爲雄心勃勃，需要政府的進一步支持。儘管經濟活動在2024年初有所增加，但經濟仍然面臨許多挑戰。
AMRO's chief economist, Hoe Ee Khor, stated, "China will continue to be a powerhouse in the region and the main driver of growth." He also acknowledged the real estate sector's weakness, saying it "will take a bit of time to overcome, but it will happen and we expect the drag on growth will bottom out maybe this year."
AMRO首席經濟學家Hoe Ee Khor表示：“中國將繼續成爲該地區的強國和增長的主要推動力。”他還承認房地產行業的疲軟，他說 “需要一點時間才能克服，但會發生，我們預計增長的拖累可能會在今年觸底。”
The report also pointed out potential risks, including the possibility of China's growth rate being slower than expected. If growth were to rise by only 4.3% this year, regional growth could be reduced by 1.7 percentage points, affecting trade, investment, and tourism.
該報告還指出了潛在風險，包括中國增長率可能低於預期。如果今年增長僅增長4.3％，地區增長可能會減少1.7個百分點，從而影響貿易、投資和旅遊。
Why It Matters: This forecast comes amid a series of events that have shaped China's economic landscape. Earlier this month, China's manufacturing sector surged to a 13-month peak, signaling an economic revival. Additionally, China's largest bank, ICBC, pledged to fund $41 billion in tourism to revive the sector.
爲何重要：這一預測是在一系列塑造中國經濟格局的事件之際作出的。本月早些時候，中國製造業飆升至13個月的峯值，標誌着經濟復甦。此外，中國最大的銀行中國工商銀行承諾爲旅遊業提供410億美元的資金，以振興該行業。
Furthermore, a recent survey revealed that Southeast Asian nations prefer China over the U.S. as their primary alignment choice.
此外，最近的一項調查顯示，東南亞國家更喜歡中國而不是美國作爲其主要的調整選擇。
This geopolitical shift could have significant implications for China's economy. Lastly, U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, kicked off her four-day visit to China, pledging to strengthen economic ties while cautioning against global risks associated with China's manufacturing overcapacity.
這種地緣政治轉變可能會對中國經濟產生重大影響。最後，美國財政部長珍妮特·耶倫開始了對中國爲期四天的訪問，承諾加強經濟關係，同時提醒注意與中國製造業產能過剩相關的全球風險。
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