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We Think Shoucheng Holdings (HKG:697) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Shoucheng Holdings (HKG:697) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲首城控股(HKG: 697)可以繼續償還債務
Simply Wall St ·  04/04 18:15

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Shoucheng Holdings Limited (HKG:697) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

禾倫·巴菲特曾說過一句名言:“波動性遠非風險的代名詞。”當我們思考一家公司的風險有多大時,我們總是喜歡考慮其債務的用途,因爲債務過載可能導致破產。與許多其他公司一樣,首城控股有限公司(HKG: 697)也使用債務。但是這筆債務是股東關心的問題嗎?

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

爲什麼債務會帶來風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

債務可以爲企業提供幫助,直到企業難以用新的資本或自由現金流還清債務。在最壞的情況下,如果一家公司無法償還債權人,它可能會破產。但是,更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,公司必須以低廉的股價稀釋股東才能控制債務。當然,許多公司使用債務爲增長提供資金,而不會產生任何負面影響。考慮公司的債務水平的第一步是同時考慮其現金和債務。

What Is Shoucheng Holdings's Debt?

首城控股的債務是什麼?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Shoucheng Holdings had HK$793.2m of debt in December 2023, down from HK$1.05b, one year before. However, it does have HK$5.19b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of HK$4.39b.

你可以點擊下圖查看歷史數字,但它顯示首城控股在2023年12月有7.932億港元的債務,低於一年前的10.5億港元。但是,它確實有51.9億港元的現金抵消了這一點,淨現金爲43.9億港元。

debt-equity-history-analysis
SEHK:697 Debt to Equity History April 4th 2024
SEHK: 697 2024 年 4 月 4 日債務與股本的比率記錄

How Healthy Is Shoucheng Holdings' Balance Sheet?

首城控股的資產負債表有多健康?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Shoucheng Holdings had liabilities of HK$1.33b due within a year, and liabilities of HK$2.15b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had HK$5.19b in cash and HK$203.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it actually has HK$1.91b more liquid assets than total liabilities.

最新的資產負債表數據顯示,首城控股的負債爲13.3億港元,此後到期的負債爲21.5億港元。與此相抵消的是,它有51.9億港元的現金和2.036億港元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。所以它實際上有19.1億港元 更多 流動資產超過總負債。

This surplus suggests that Shoucheng Holdings is using debt in a way that is appears to be both safe and conservative. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders. Simply put, the fact that Shoucheng Holdings has more cash than debt is arguably a good indication that it can manage its debt safely.

這種盈餘表明,首城控股正在以一種看似既安全又保守的方式使用債務。由於它擁有充足的資產,因此不太可能與貸款人發生麻煩。簡而言之,首城控股的現金多於債務這一事實可以說是一個很好的跡象,表明它可以安全地管理債務。

Unfortunately, Shoucheng Holdings saw its EBIT slide 5.1% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue on that decline then managing that debt will be difficult like delivering hot soup on a unicycle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Shoucheng Holdings will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.

不幸的是,首城控股的息稅前利潤在過去十二個月中下降了5.1%。如果收益繼續下降,那麼管理這筆債務將像在獨輪車上送熱湯一樣困難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是你不能完全孤立地看待債務;因爲首城控股需要收益來償還債務。因此,在考慮債務時,絕對值得一看收益趨勢。單擊此處查看交互式快照。

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. While Shoucheng Holdings has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. During the last three years, Shoucheng Holdings burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

最後,企業需要自由現金流來償還債務;會計利潤根本無法減少債務。儘管首城控股的資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍值得一看其將息稅前收益(EBIT)轉換爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度有多快。在過去的三年中,首城控股燒掉了大量現金。儘管投資者無疑預計這種情況將在適當的時候逆轉,但這顯然意味着其使用債務的風險更大。

Summing Up

總結

While we empathize with investors who find debt concerning, you should keep in mind that Shoucheng Holdings has net cash of HK$4.39b, as well as more liquid assets than liabilities. So we are not troubled with Shoucheng Holdings's debt use. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Shoucheng Holdings you should know about.

雖然我們同情那些認爲債務令人擔憂的投資者,但您應該記住,首城控股的淨現金爲43.9億港元,流動資產也多於負債。因此,我們對首城控股的債務使用並不感到困擾。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有它們,我們發現了你應該知道的首城控股的1個警告標誌。

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

歸根結底,通常最好將注意力集中在沒有淨負債的公司身上。您可以訪問我們的此類公司的特別名單(所有公司都有利潤增長記錄)。它是免費的。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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