'Forget Bitcoin Price Targets': Crypto Expert Says 30% Of Cycle Top Metrics Are 'High Risk'
'Forget Bitcoin Price Targets': Crypto Expert Says 30% Of Cycle Top Metrics Are 'High Risk'
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards shared a comprehensive list of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle top signals, highlighting the importance of monitoring these metrics over focusing on price targets.
Capriole Investments創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲分享了比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）週期最高信號的完整清單，強調了監控這些指標比關注價格目標的重要性。
What Happened: Edwards took to X on Wednesday to discuss the key indicators that could signal a Bitcoin cycle top. "Forget price targets," Edwards writes, stressing the need to remain "open-minded and nimble" and cautioning against getting "fixated on arbitrary dollar targets or the fear of missing out (FOMO) on a possible super cycle."
發生了什麼：愛德華茲週三前往X討論了可能預示比特幣週期頂峯的關鍵指標。愛德華茲寫道：“忘記價格目標，” 他強調需要保持 “開放的心態和靈活性”，並告誡不要 “專注於任意的美元目標，也不要害怕錯過可能的超級週期（FOMO）”。
Edwards pointed out important metrics to look out for:
愛德華茲指出了需要注意的重要指標：
- Supply Delta + 90 Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD): Watch for a rounded top.
- Long-term Holder Inflation Rate: Currently at 0.5. It still has a lot of room until the 2.0 threshold, which marks a high likelihood of the cycle top being in.
- Hodler Growth Rate (HGR): Cycle tops typically occur when HGR hasn't made a new high in 6-9 months. Currently, it is 3 months in now.
- Bitcoin Heater: Extended periods of extreme funding/basis/options readings.
- Mayer Multiple: Any readings over 2.5 have marked all the major Bitcoin cycle tops, currently at 1.6.
- 供應 Delta + 90 天硬幣銷燬天數 (CDD)：注意圓頂。
- 長揸人通貨膨脹率：目前爲0.5。在達到2.0閾值之前，它還有很大的空間，這表明進入週期頂峯的可能性很大。
- 霍德勒增長率（HGR）：週期頂峯通常發生在HGR在6-9個月內沒有創出新高時。目前，已經過去了3個月。
- 比特幣加熱器：延長極端資金/基礎/期權讀數的時期。
- Mayer Multiple：任何超過2.5的讀數都標誌着比特幣的所有主要週期高點，目前爲1.6。
He also highlighted the Dynamic Range NVT, On-chain Transaction Fees, Net Unrealized PnL (NUPL), Spent Volume 7-10 years, SLRV Ribbons, Dormancy Flow, Percent Addresses in Profit, and U.S. Liquidity.
他還重點介紹了動態範圍 NVT、鏈上交易費用、未實現淨損益（NUPL）、7-10 年的支出量、SLRV 色帶、休眠流量、利潤地址百分比和美國流動性。
Also Read: Here's What Robert Kiyosaki Is Going To Do If Bitcoin Falls To $200 In The 'Biggest Everything Crash'
另請閱讀：如果比特幣在 “最大的一切崩潰” 中跌至200美元，羅伯特·清崎將要做什麼
Why It Matters: Edwards' analysis provides a comprehensive guide for crypto enthusiasts and investors to navigate the volatile Bitcoin market. He noted that 30% of the metrics are at high risk, indicating the need for closer monitoring for a cycle top. Currently, Bitcoin's weekly and monthly gains stand at around 5% while its yearly gains are at 134%.
爲何重要：愛德華茲的分析爲加密愛好者和投資者提供了全面的指南，幫助他們駕馭動盪的比特幣市場。他指出，30％的指標處於高風險狀態，這表明需要對週期頂峯進行更密切的監測。目前，比特幣的每週和每月漲幅約爲5％，而其年度漲幅爲134％。
He emphasized that these metrics are more important than any predictions or price targets, highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making in the crypto market.
他強調說，這些指標比任何預測或價格目標都重要，強調了數據驅動決策在加密市場中的重要性。
What's Next: Edwards concludes, "Don't expect the next cycle top to be the same as the last. Not all metrics will work. Some new metrics will."
下一步是什麼：Edwards總結道：“不要指望下一個週期的頂峯會與上一個週期相同。並非所有指標都能奏效。一些新指標將出現。”
The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is a topic expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
Benzinga即將於11月19日舉行的數字資產未來活動預計將深入探討比特幣作爲機構資產類別的影響力。
Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.
使用 Midjourney 使用人工智能創建的圖像。