Banks Will Shine In 2025, Analyst Says, But Can They Dodge Loan Losses?
Banks Will Shine In 2025, Analyst Says, But Can They Dodge Loan Losses?
HSBC Global Research analyst Saul Martinez revised ratings on several banks on incrementally positive stance on super regionals banks.
匯豐環球研究分析師索爾·馬丁內斯上調了幾家銀行的評級，原因是對超級區域銀行持積極立場。
The analyst expects the banks in their coverage to show improved net interest income (NII), generate healthy recovery in adjusted EPS growth and operating leverage in 2025, and boost share buybacks in 2025 and beyond.
該分析師預計，其覆蓋範圍內的銀行將在2025年顯示出淨利息收入（NII）的改善，調整後的每股收益增長和運營槓桿率將健康復蘇，並在2025年及以後加強股票回購。
Notably, the analyst estimates a recovery in NII in H2 2024 and 2025 for most banks as deposit cost pressures ease and fixed-rate assets re-price at higher yields.
值得注意的是，該分析師估計，隨着存款成本壓力的緩解以及固定利率資產以更高的收益率重新定價，大多數銀行的NII將在2024年下半年和2025年復甦。
For the first-quarter earnings season, the analyst says that the focus will be on the banks' outlooks for NII, credit losses and loan loss reserve levels, efficiency improvements, and capital returns.
分析師表示，對於第一季度業績季，重點將放在銀行對NII、信貸損失和貸款損失準備金水平、效率提高和資本回報的前景上。
However, Martinez's forecasts include higher loan loss reserve builds in 2024 and a longer-than-previously anticipated recovery in investment banking fees.
但是，馬丁內斯的預測包括2024年增加貸款損失準備金，以及投資銀行費用的回升時間將超過先前的預期。
Excluding Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), the analyst forecasts average adjusted EPS to grow around 13% in 2025 for the banks in their coverage vs a decline of 7% in 2024.
不包括花旗集團（紐約證券交易所代碼：C），分析師預測，銀行在2025年其承保範圍內的平均調整後每股收益將增長約13％，而2024年下降7％。
The analyst upgraded the U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) to Buy from Hold and raised the price target to $53 from $47.
該分析師將美國銀行（紐約證券交易所代碼：USB）上調至持有買入，並將目標股價從47美元上調至53美元。
The analyst writes that the bank is their preferred choice among US super-regionals and expects it to expand profitability in 2025 and continue to generate near best-in-class ROTCEs.
該分析師寫道，該銀行是他們在美國超級地區銀行中的首選，並預計該銀行將在2025年擴大盈利能力，並繼續產生接近同類最佳的ROTCE。
Meanwhile, the analyst upgraded The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:PNC) to Hold and raised the price target to $155 (from $141).
同時，該分析師將PNC金融服務集團有限公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：PNC）上調至持有，並將目標股價從141美元上調至155美元。
Martinez expects PNC's NII growth to re-emerge in the second half of FY24 and sees a clearer path to repurchase shares more quickly than anticipated.
馬丁內斯預計，PNC的NII增長將在24財年下半年重新出現，並認爲回購股票的路徑比預期更快。
The analyst sees PNC's strong market position with the middle market and corporate clients, disciplined approach to credit quality, and consistent solid returns on equity as positives.
分析師認爲，PNC在中間市場和企業客戶中的強勁市場地位、嚴格的信貸質量方針以及持續穩健的股本回報率是積極因素。
On the other hand, the analyst downgraded Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) to Hold but lifted the price target to $39 (from $38).
另一方面，分析師將美國銀行公司（紐約證券交易所代碼：BAC）的評級下調至持有，但將目標股價從38美元上調至39美元。
Martinez writes that the market concerns that Bank of America would need to play catch up and raise deposit costs (thereby impacting earnings power) have not played out. Still, they note a slight decline in 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates since September 2023.
馬丁內斯寫道，市場對美國銀行需要追趕和提高存款成本（從而影響盈利能力）的擔憂尚未消失。儘管如此，他們指出，自2023年9月以來，2024年和2025年的每股收益估計值略有下降。
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