If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. Speaking of which, we noticed some great changes in GEO Group's (NYSE:GEO) returns on capital, so let's have a look.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for GEO Group, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.11 = US$353m ÷ (US$3.7b - US$437m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

So, GEO Group has an ROCE of 11%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 10% generated by the Commercial Services industry.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for GEO Group compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for GEO Group .

What Does the ROCE Trend For GEO Group Tell Us?

GEO Group is showing promise given that its ROCE is trending up and to the right. The figures show that over the last five years, ROCE has grown 45% whilst employing roughly the same amount of capital. So our take on this is that the business has increased efficiencies to generate these higher returns, all the while not needing to make any additional investments. The company is doing well in that sense, and it's worth investigating what the management team has planned for long term growth prospects.

What We Can Learn From GEO Group's ROCE

In summary, we're delighted to see that GEO Group has been able to increase efficiencies and earn higher rates of return on the same amount of capital. Astute investors may have an opportunity here because the stock has declined 18% in the last five years. That being the case, research into the company's current valuation metrics and future prospects seems fitting.

GEO Group does come with some risks though, we found 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those shouldn't be ignored...

While GEO Group may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.