Are We In A Stock Market Bubble? Hedge Fund Guru Ray Dalio Weighs In, Sees Magnificent 7 Stocks As 'Bit Frothy'
Are We In A Stock Market Bubble? Hedge Fund Guru Ray Dalio Weighs In, Sees Magnificent 7 Stocks As 'Bit Frothy'
The U.S. stock market is not in a bubble, according to Ray Dalio, the former co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund. Despite the market's recent significant rallies, Dalio's analysis suggests that the market is not exhibiting typical bubble characteristics.
最大的對沖基金Bridgewater Associates的前聯席首席投資官雷·達利奧表示，美國股市沒有陷入泡沫。儘管市場最近出現了大幅上漲，但達利奧的分析表明，市場並未表現出典型的泡沫特徵。
What Happened: In a comprehensive analysis shared on LinkedIn, Dalio detailed the indicators he uses to spot market bubbles. These include high prices compared to traditional value measures, unsustainable conditions, an influx of new and inexperienced buyers, widespread bullish sentiment, a high percentage of purchases financed by debt, and a significant amount of forward and speculative purchases.
發生了什麼：在LinkedIn上分享的一份綜合分析中，達利奧詳細介紹了他用來發現市場泡沫的指標。其中包括與傳統價值衡量標準相比的高價格、不可持續的狀況、新買家和缺乏經驗的買家湧入、普遍的看漲情緒、高比例的債務融資購買以及大量的遠期和投機性購買。
Dalio's application of these criteria to the U.S. stock market led him to conclude that the market is not in a bubble. He noted that the market, on the whole, is in the mid-range (52nd percentile) and does not align with previous bubbles.
達利奧將這些標準應用於美國股市，這使他得出結論，市場沒有陷入泡沫。他指出，總體而言，市場處於中等水平（第 52 個百分位），與之前的泡沫不一致。
Dalio also discussed the "Magnificent 7" group of companies that have contributed significantly to U.S. stock market gains over the past year.
達利奧還討論了在過去一年中爲美國股市上漲做出重大貢獻的 “Magnificent 7” 集團公司。
"The Mag-7 is measured to be a bit frothy but not in a full-on bubble," he said. He noted that valuations are slightly high, given current and projected earnings, but he does not see excessive leverage or a surge of "new and naive buyers."
他說：“據測定，Mag-7有點泡沫，但不是完全泡沫狀的。”他指出，考慮到當前和預計的收益，估值略高，但他認爲槓桿率不會過高或 “新的天真買家” 激增。
However, Dalio noted that a significant correction could still occur, particularly if generative AI does not live up to the priced-in impact.
但是，達利奧指出，仍可能出現重大修正，尤其是在生成式人工智能沒有達到定價影響的情況下。
Why It Matters: Dalio's analysis comes amid ongoing debates about the state of the U.S. stock market. In February, Capital Economics' John Higgins predicted that the current stock market bubble would continue to inflate until the end of 2025, driven by the narrative around artificial intelligence.
爲何重要：達利奧的分析是在關於美國股市狀況的持續辯論中進行的。2月，資本經濟學的約翰·希金斯預測，在圍繞人工智能的敘事的推動下，當前的股市泡沫將持續膨脹到2025年底。
However, the "Magnificent 7", which Dalio mentioned, has seen its fortunes diverge this year, according to Mike O'Rourke, the chief market strategist at Jones Trading, suggesting that the group's dominance over the stock market is waning.
但是，瓊斯交易首席市場策略師邁克·奧羅克表示，達利奧提到的 “Magnificent 7” 今年的命運出現了分歧，這表明該集團在股市的主導地位正在減弱。
On a related note, Ark Invest's Chief Futurist Brett Winton this week predicted that real GDP growth could reach 7% annually on average in the current business cycle, surpassing the rate seen in any year since 1950, thanks to the impact of transformative technologies.
與此相關的是，Ark Invest的首席未來學家佈雷特·溫頓本週預測，由於變革性技術的影響，當前商業週期的實際國內生產總值平均年增長率可能達到7％，超過1950年以來的任何一年。
On Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed up 0.36% at $506.76, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:DIA) rose marginally to $389.95 and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) rose 0.86% to $439, according to Benzinga Pro data. The three ETFs are up 7.5%, 3.4%, and 9%, respectively, so far this year.
Benzinga Pro的數據顯示，週四，SPDR標準普爾500指數ETF信託（紐約證券交易所代碼：SPY）收盤上漲0.36％，至506.76美元；SPDR道瓊斯工業平均指數（紐約證券交易所代碼：DIA）小幅上漲至389.95美元，以科技股爲主的景順QQ信託（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）上漲0.86％，至439美元。今年到目前爲止，這三隻ETF分別上漲了7.5％、3.4％和9％。