The last three months have been tough on CITIC Niya Wine Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600084) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 34%. But in three years the returns have been great. In fact, the share price is up a full 125% compared to three years ago. To some, the recent share price pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a good run. If the business can perform well for years to come, then the recent drop could be an opportunity.
In light of the stock dropping 24% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.
CITIC Niya Wine wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
CITIC Niya Wine's revenue trended up 8.6% each year over three years. That's a very respectable growth rate. It's fair to say that the market has acknowledged the growth by pushing the share price up 31% per year. The business has made good progress on the top line, but the market is extrapolating the growth. Some investors like to buy in just after a company becomes profitable, since that can be a powerful inflexion point.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on CITIC Niya Wine's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that CITIC Niya Wine shareholders are down 36% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 28%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 16%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for CITIC Niya Wine you should know about.
We will like CITIC Niya Wine better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.