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Guoyuan Securities (SZSE:000728) Shareholders Have Endured a 10% Loss From Investing in the Stock Three Years Ago

Guoyuan Securities (SZSE:000728) Shareholders Have Endured a 10% Loss From Investing in the Stock Three Years Ago

國元證券(深圳證券交易所代碼:000728)股東因三年前投資該股而遭受了10%的損失
Simply Wall St ·  01/25 20:30

It can certainly be frustrating when a stock does not perform as hoped. But it can difficult to make money in a declining market. The Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (SZSE:000728) is down 17% over three years, but the total shareholder return is -10% once you include the dividend. That's better than the market which declined 26% over the last three years.

當股票表現不如預期時,肯定會令人沮喪。但是在下跌的市場中可能很難賺錢。國元證券有限公司(深交所股票代碼:000728)在三年內下跌了17%,但如果將股息計算在內,股東總回報率爲-10%。這比過去三年下跌26%的市場要好。

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

因此,讓我們來看看公司的長期表現是否與基礎業務的進展一致。

View our latest analysis for Guoyuan Securities

查看我們對國元證券的最新分析

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

雖然市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映了投資者的情緒,而不僅僅是潛在的業務表現。評估公司情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Guoyuan Securities actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 3.1% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

在不幸的三年股價下跌中,國元證券的每股收益(EPS)實際上每年增長3.1%。這真是個難題,表明可能會有一些東西暫時提振股價。或者,過去的增長預期可能不合理。

After considering the numbers, we'd posit that the the market had higher expectations of EPS growth, three years back. But it's possible a look at other metrics will be enlightening.

在考慮了這些數字之後,我們假設三年前市場對每股收益增長的預期更高。但看看其他指標可能會有所啓發。

Revenue is actually up 12% over the three years, so the share price drop doesn't seem to hinge on revenue, either. It's probably worth investigating Guoyuan Securities further; while we may be missing something on this analysis, there might also be an opportunity.

在過去的三年中,收入實際上增長了12%,因此股價下跌似乎也不取決於收入。可能值得進一步調查國元證券;雖然我們在分析中可能遺漏了一些東西,但也可能有機會。

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

公司的收入和收益(隨着時間的推移)如下圖所示(點擊查看確切數字)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:000728 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 26th 2024
SZSE: 000728 2024年1月26日收益和收入增長

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

您可以在這張免費的交互式圖片中看到其資產負債表如何隨着時間的推移而增強(或減弱)。

What About Dividends?

分紅呢?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Guoyuan Securities' TSR for the last 3 years was -10%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

在考慮投資回報時,重要的是要考慮兩者之間的區別 股東總回報 (TSR) 和 股價回報。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以公平地說,股東總回報率爲支付股息的股票提供了更完整的畫面。碰巧的是,國元證券過去3年的股東總回報率爲-10%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。因此,該公司支付的股息提高了 股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While it's never nice to take a loss, Guoyuan Securities shareholders can take comfort that , including dividends,their trailing twelve month loss of 5.2% wasn't as bad as the market loss of around 20%. Of course, the long term returns are far more important and the good news is that over five years, the stock has returned 3% for each year. In the best case scenario the last year is just a temporary blip on the journey to a brighter future. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Guoyuan Securities better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Guoyuan Securities (1 is significant) that you should be aware of.

儘管虧損從來都不是一件好事,但國元證券的股東可以放心,包括股息在內,他們過去十二個月的5.2%的虧損沒有20%左右的市場虧損那麼嚴重。當然,長期回報要重要得多,好消息是,在過去的五年中,該股每年的回報率爲3%。在最好的情況下,去年只是通往更光明未來之旅中的一個暫時階段。長期跟蹤股價表現總是很有意思的。但是,要更好地了解國元證券,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們已經確定了國元證券的兩個警告信號(其中一個很重要),你應該注意這些信號。

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

如果你想看看另一家公司——一家財務狀況可能優異的公司——那麼千萬不要錯過這份已經證明自己可以增加收益的公司的免費名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在中國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論,我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之,華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。

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