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Huishang Bank (HKG:3698) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 15% If They Invested Five Years Ago

Huishang Bank (HKG:3698) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 15% If They Invested Five Years Ago

徽商銀行(HKG: 3698)如果投資者在五年前進行投資,他們將蒙受15%的損失
Simply Wall St ·  01/03 18:19

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Huishang Bank Corporation Limited (HKG:3698), since the last five years saw the share price fall 29%.

理想情況下,您的整體投資組合應超過市場平均水平。但主要的遊戲是找到足夠的贏家來抵消輸家。在這一點上,一些股東可能會質疑他們對徽商銀行股份有限公司(HKG: 3698)的投資,因爲過去五年股價下跌了29%。

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

值得評估公司的經濟是否與這些令人難以置信的股東回報同步發展,或者兩者之間是否存在一些差異。因此,讓我們這樣做吧。

See our latest analysis for Huishang Bank

查看我們對徽商銀行的最新分析

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

用本傑明·格雷厄姆的話來說:從短期來看,市場是一臺投票機,但從長遠來看,它是一臺稱重機。研究市場情緒如何隨時間推移而變化的一種方法是研究公司的股價與其每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。

While the share price declined over five years, Huishang Bank actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 9.2% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

儘管股價在五年內下跌,但徽商銀行實際上設法做到了 增加 每股收益平均每年增長9.2%。因此,每股收益似乎不是了解市場如何估值股票的好指南。或者,市場此前可能非常樂觀,因此儘管每股收益有所改善,但該股還是令人失望。

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

由於每股收益增長與股價下跌之間缺乏相關性,值得研究其他指標來了解股價走勢。

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.

穩定的股息並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。儘管股價下跌的原因尚不完全明顯,但仔細研究該公司的歷史可能有助於解釋這一點。

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下圖中查看收入和收入隨着時間的推移而發生的變化(點擊圖表查看確切的數值)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:3698 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 3rd 2024
SEHK: 3698 2024 年 1 月 3 日收益和收入增長

We know that Huishang Bank has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Huishang Bank in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

我們知道徽商銀行最近提高了利潤,但是未來會發生什麼?您可以在這張未來利潤估計的交互式圖表中看到分析師對徽商銀行的預測。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Huishang Bank's TSR for the last 5 years was -15%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股價回報率外,投資者還應考慮股東總回報率(TSR)。基於股息再投資的假設,股東總回報率納入了任何分拆或貼現資本籌集的價值以及任何股息。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來說,股東總回報率通常遠高於股價回報率。碰巧的是,徽商銀行過去5年的股東總回報率爲-15%,超過了前面提到的股價回報率。因此,該公司支付的股息提高了 股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

We're pleased to report that Huishang Bank shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 1.8% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 3% per year over five years. We generally put more weight on the long term performance over the short term, but the recent improvement could hint at a (positive) inflection point within the business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Huishang Bank you should know about.

我們很高興地向大家報告,徽商銀行的股東在一年內獲得了 1.8% 的總股東回報率。當然,這包括股息。毫無疑問,最近的回報遠好於五年內每年3%的股東總回報率損失。我們通常更看重短期內的長期表現,但最近的改善可能暗示業務出現了(積極的)轉折點。儘管市場狀況可能對股價產生的不同影響值得考慮,但還有其他因素更爲重要。例如,考慮風險。每家公司都有它們,我們已經發現了一個你應該知道的徽商銀行警告標誌。

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

當然,通過尋找其他地方,你可能會找到一筆不錯的投資。因此,請看一下我們預計收益將增加的這份免費公司名單。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報率。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對這篇文章有反饋嗎?對內容感到擔憂?直接聯繫我們。 或者,給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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