David Einhorn's Portfolio Prepared For 'Higher Oil Prices' That Could 'Cause A Recession'
David Einhorn's Portfolio Prepared For 'Higher Oil Prices' That Could 'Cause A Recession'
David Einhorn, billionaire co-founder and president of Greenlight Capital, has his portfolio heavy on the material and energy sectors.
億萬富翁聯合創始人兼綠光資本總裁大衛·愛因霍恩的投資組合主要集中在材料和能源領域。
In his third quarter letter to investors, Einhorn said, "higher oil prices would squeeze the consumer and likely cause a recession."
艾因霍恩在第三季度給投資者的信中說：“油價上漲將擠壓消費者，並可能導致衰退。”
This might explain Einhorn's swift move towards gold as a safe haven in light of recessionary concerns. Greenlight Capital's stake in GLD (representing safe-haven gold) increased by 89.22% this quarter validating Einhorn's bullishness on the yellow metal.
鑑於經濟衰退的擔憂，這也許可以解釋艾因霍恩迅速轉向黃金作爲避風港的原因。Greenlight Capital在本季度持有的GLD（代表避險黃金）的股份增加了89.22％，這證實了艾因霍恩對黃金的看漲態度。
Material Sector Dominates
材料行業占主導地位
Per the hedge fund's third-quarter 13F filing, materials command a good 39.31% of his portfolio.
根據該對沖基金第三季度的13F文件，材料佔其投資組合的39.31％。
Material sector stocks and ETFs such as $Green Brick Partners (GRBK.US)$, $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$, $Teck Resources (TECK.US)$ and $Graphic Packaging (GPK.US)$ feature among his top holdings. Since Q3 2017, the hedge fund mogul has boosted his allocation in the materials sector from 6.44% to 39.31%.
材料板塊股票和交易所買賣基金，例如 $Green Brick Partners (GRBK.US)$， $SPDR黄金ETF (GLD.US)$， $泰克資源有限公司 (TECK.US)$ 和 $Graphic Packaging (GPK.US)$ 是他最受歡迎的藏品之一。自2017年第三季度以來，這位對沖基金大亨已將其在材料領域的配置從6.44％提高到39.31％。
Green Brick, a diversified homebuilding and land development company, is currently Einhorn's no. 1 holding. Greenlight Capital's portfolio is heavily dominated by GRBK, comprising 29.10%, resulting in the firm owning 24.32% of the company.
Green Brick是一家多元化的房屋建築和土地開發公司，目前是艾因霍恩的第一大控股公司。Greenlight Capital的投資組合主要由GRBK主導，佔29.10％，因此該公司擁有該公司24.32％的股份。
GLD's allocation in the portfolio has increased from 1.91% to 4.20%, while TECK's share has risen from 2.66% to 3.58%.
GLD在投資組合中的配置已從1.91％增加到4.20％，而TECK的份額已從2.66％上升到3.58％。
Why David Einhorn Is Bullish on Oil
爲什麼大衛·愛因霍恩看好石油
"Having sold down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and having adopted a policy that discourages drilling for oil, the U.S. has left itself quite vulnerable to higher oil prices. Globally, storage is at a multi-year low," Einhorn said in his Q3 2023 investor letter.
“在出售了戰略石油儲備並採取了不鼓勵石油鑽探的政策之後，美國很容易受到油價上漲的影響。在全球範圍內，存儲量處於多年低點。” 艾因霍恩在2023年第三季度的投資者信中說。
"Our positive net exposure is expressed almost entirely through the energy sector, and we have added a large macro position via futures and options that will benefit from much higher crude oil prices throughout 2024."
“我們的正淨敞口幾乎完全體現在能源行業，我們通過期貨和期權增加了大量宏觀頭寸，這將受益於整個2024年原油價格的大幅上漲。”
Energy Stocks to the Rescue
能源股出手救援
Einhorn's investment strategy in the energy sector has exhibited a wave-like pattern, alternating between phases of increased and decreased allocations. The current increasing wave started in Q4 2021 when a mere 3.60% of the portfolio was allocated to the energy sector. This has now grown to 23.84%.
艾因霍恩在能源領域的投資策略呈現出波浪狀的模式，在增加和減少分配的階段之間交替出現。當前的增長浪潮始於2021年第四季度，當時僅有3.60％的投資組合分配給了能源行業。現在，這一比例已增長到23.84％。
Greenlight Capital's primary investments in the energy sector consist of $CONSOL Energy (CEIX.US)$, $Southwestern Energy (SWN.US)$, $Weatherford International (WFRD.US)$, and $Seadrill (SDRL.US)$, with CEIX being the second-largest holding in their portfolio at 14.33%.
綠光資本在能源領域的主要投資包括 $CONSOL Energy (CEIX.US)$， $美國西南能源 (SWN.US)$， $Weatherford國際 (WFRD.US)$，以及 $Seadrill (SDRL.US)$，CEIX是其投資組合中的第二大持股，佔14.33％。
Currently, SWN and SDRL make up 3.70% and 0.92% of the portfolio, respectively, with Einhorn significantly increasing his stakes in both this quarter.
目前，SWN和SDRL分別佔投資組合的3.70％和0.92％，而艾因霍恩在本季度的股份均大幅增加。
$DHT Holdings (DHT.US)$, an independent crude oil tanker company, was a new addition to the portfolio this quarter at 1.18% allocation.
$DHT控股 (DHT.US)$是一家獨立的原油油輪公司，是本季度投資組合中的新成員，配置爲1.18％。