Today is shaping up negative for Luminar Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:LAZR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Luminar Technologies' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$195m in 2024, which would reflect a huge 257% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 28% to US$1.02 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$244m and losses of US$0.93 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for Luminar Technologies

The consensus price target fell 14% to US$9.58, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Luminar Technologies' valuation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Luminar Technologies' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Luminar Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 177% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 45% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Luminar Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Luminar Technologies. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Luminar Technologies after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Luminar Technologies going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.