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Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 12% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Three-year Shareholder Returns

Federal Agricultural Mortgage (NYSE:AGM) Jumps 12% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Three-year Shareholder Returns

聯邦農業抵押貸款(紐約證券交易所代碼:AGM)本週上漲12%,儘管收益增長仍落後於三年期股東回報
Simply Wall St ·  2023/11/05 08:14

The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For instance the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE:AGM) share price is 152% higher than it was three years ago. Most would be happy with that. It's even up 12% in the last week. But this might be partly because the broader market had a good week last week, gaining 5.9%.

在購買公司股票(假設沒有槓桿作用)之後,最糟糕的結果是你損失了所有投入的資金。但是,當你選擇一家真正蓬勃發展的公司時,你可以 使 超過 100%。例如,聯邦農業抵押貸款公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:AGM)的股價比三年前高出152%。大多數人會對此感到滿意。上週它甚至上漲了12%。但這可能部分是因爲上週大盤表現不錯,上漲了5.9%。

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Federal Agricultural Mortgage investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

事實證明,過去一週對聯邦農業抵押貸款投資者來說是有利可圖的,所以讓我們看看基本面是否推動了公司的三年業績。

See our latest analysis for Federal Agricultural Mortgage

查看我們對聯邦農業抵押貸款的最新分析

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

儘管市場是一種強大的定價機制,但股價反映的是投資者的情緒,而不僅僅是基本的業務表現。研究市場情緒如何隨時間推移而變化的一種方法是研究公司的股價與其每股收益(EPS)之間的相互作用。

Federal Agricultural Mortgage was able to grow its EPS at 21% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 36% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

聯邦農業抵押貸款得以在三年內以每年21%的速度增長其每股收益,從而推高了股價。相比之下,股價每年36%的漲幅超過了每股收益的增長。因此,可以公平地假設市場對該業務的看法比三年前更高。在經歷了幾年的增長之後,市場對股票進行 “重新評級” 的情況並不少見。

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

您可以在下圖中看到每股收益如何隨着時間的推移而變化(點擊圖表查看確切值)。

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:AGM Earnings Per Share Growth November 5th 2023
紐約證券交易所:AGM 每股收益增長 2023 年 11 月 5 日

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Federal Agricultural Mortgage's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

我們認爲,內部人士在去年進行了大量收購,這是積極的。話雖如此,大多數人認爲收益和收入增長趨勢是更有意義的業務指南。查看這張聯邦農業抵押貸款收益、收入和現金流的交互式圖表,深入了解收益。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Federal Agricultural Mortgage, it has a TSR of 179% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

除了衡量股價回報率外,投資者還應考慮股東總回報率(TSR)。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法,它考慮了現金分紅的價值(假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資)以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。因此,對於支付豐厚股息的公司來說,股東總回報率通常遠高於股價回報率。就聯邦農業抵押貸款而言,在過去3年的股東總回報率爲179%。這超過了我們之前提到的其股價回報率。因此,該公司支付的股息提高了 股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

It's nice to see that Federal Agricultural Mortgage shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 46% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 22% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Federal Agricultural Mortgage better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Federal Agricultural Mortgage (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable) that you should be aware of.

很高興看到聯邦農業抵押貸款股東去年獲得的股東總回報率爲46%。當然,這包括股息。這比五年來22%的年化回報率要好,這意味着該公司最近的表現更好。持樂觀態度的人可能會將最近股東總回報率的改善視爲業務本身隨着時間的推移而變得更好。長期跟蹤股價表現總是很有意思的。但是,要更好地了解聯邦農業抵押貸款,我們需要考慮許多其他因素。例如,我們已經確定了兩個聯邦農業抵押貸款的警告信號(其中一個讓我們有點不舒服),你應該注意這些信號。

Federal Agricultural Mortgage is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

聯邦農業抵押貸款並不是內部人士購買的唯一股票。對於那些喜歡尋找中獎投資的人來說,這份最近有內幕收購的成長型公司的免費名單可能只是門票。

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報率。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。

声明:本內容僅用作提供資訊及教育之目的,不構成對任何特定投資或投資策略的推薦或認可。 更多信息
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