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2.1% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for CITIC (HKG:267) Shareholders Over That Period

2.1% Earnings Growth Over 5 Years Has Not Materialized Into Gains for CITIC (HKG:267) Shareholders Over That Period

中信(HKG: 267)股東在5年內實現2.1%的收益增長並未轉化爲同期的收益
Simply Wall St ·  2023/10/22 20:51

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in CITIC Limited (HKG:267), since the last five years saw the share price fall 42%. Furthermore, it's down 18% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. Of course, this share price action may well have been influenced by the 8.3% decline in the broader market, throughout the period.

理想情況下,你的整體投資組合應該超過市場平均水準。但幾乎可以肯定的是,每個投資者都會同時擁有表現優異和表現不佳的股票。在這一點上,一些股東可能會質疑他們在中信股份(HKG:267),自過去五年股價下跌42%以來。此外,它在大約四分之一的時間裡下跌了18%。對於持有者來說,這並不是什麼樂趣。當然,在此期間,這一股價走勢很可能受到了大盤8.3%跌幅的影響。

Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.

鑑於過去一週對股東的態度一直很嚴峻,讓我們調查一下基本面,看看我們能學到什麼。

View our latest analysis for CITIC

查看我們對中信股份的最新分析

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

本傑明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的原話是:短期內,市場是一臺投票機,但從長遠來看,它是一臺稱重機。評估圍繞一家公司的情緒變化的一個有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益(EPS)與股價進行比較。

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, CITIC actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 11% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

不幸的是,在股價下滑的五年裡,中信股份的每股收益(EPS)實際上以每年11%的速度增長。考慮到股價的反應,人們可能會懷疑,每股收益不是這段時間內業務表現的良好指南(可能是因為一次性的虧損或收益)。也有可能,此前市場非常樂觀,因此儘管每股收益有所改善,但該股仍令人失望。

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

由於每股收益增長和股價下跌之間缺乏相關性,因此有必要看看其他指標,試圖瞭解股價走勢。

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. It's not immediately clear to us why the stock price is down but further research might provide some answers.

穩定的股息並不能真正解釋股價下跌的原因。我們目前還不清楚為什麼股價會下跌,但進一步的研究可能會提供一些答案。

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

下圖描述了收益和收入隨時間的變化(通過單擊圖像來揭示確切的價值)。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SEHK:267 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 23rd 2023
聯交所:267盈利及收入增長2023年10月23日

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think CITIC will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

可能值得注意的是,首席執行官的薪酬低於類似規模公司的中位數。但是,儘管CEO的薪酬總是值得檢查的,但真正重要的問題是,公司能否在未來實現收益增長。因此,看看分析師認為中信股份未來的收入(免費利潤預測)很有意義。

What About Dividends?

那股息呢?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for CITIC the TSR over the last 5 years was -21%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

重要的是要考慮任何給定股票的總股東回報以及股價回報。雖然股價回報只反映股價的變動,但TSR包括股息的價值(假設股息再投資),以及任何折價集資或分拆所帶來的利益。可以說,TSR更全面地描繪了一隻股票產生的回報。我們注意到,中信股份在過去5年的總回報率為-21%,好於上述股價回報率。該公司支付的股息因此提振了總計股東回報。

A Different Perspective

不同的視角

While the broader market gained around 8.5% in the last year, CITIC shareholders lost 3.1% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, longer term shareholders are suffering worse, given the loss of 4% doled out over the last five years. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand CITIC better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for CITIC you should be aware of.

儘管大盤去年上漲了約8.5%,但中信股份的股東損失了3.1%(甚至包括股息)。然而,請記住,即使是最好的股票,在12個月的時間裡,有時也會表現遜於市場。不幸的是,考慮到過去五年4%的損失,長期股東的損失更大。我們需要在關鍵指標上看到一些持續的改善,然後我們才能調動起太多的熱情。跟蹤股價的長期表現總是很有趣的。但要更好地理解中信股份,我們還需要考慮許多其他因素。一個恰當的例子:我們發現了中信股份的1個警示標誌你應該意識到。

We will like CITIC better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

如果我們看到一些大的內部收購,我們會更喜歡中信股份。在我們等待的時候,看看這個免費最近有大量內幕收購的成長型公司名單.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

請注意,本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在香港交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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本文由Simply Wall St.撰寫,具有概括性.我們僅使用不偏不倚的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並不打算作為財務建議.它不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮你的目標或你的財務狀況.我們的目標是為您帶來由基本面數據驅動的長期重點分析.請注意,我們的分析可能不會將最新的對價格敏感的公司公告或定性材料考慮在內.Simply Wall St.對上述任何一隻股票都沒有持倉.

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